WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Oh shit, NAM with the head fake. Looks better at 69 (heh heh)...still not gonna get there tho, but it's markedly better Yes. Big difference. Trough axis more vertical, much less progressive. Heights rising in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Snow on the door step at 78 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Snow on the Potomac at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nam better with the NS..can't buy a sw vort push. dammit. Can you imagine if that vort had just moved east. 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Imma be honest. I have no idea what the **** is going on with the NAM and what I'm looking for anymore. It's a mess 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh shit, NAM with the head fake. Looks better at 69 (heh heh)...still not gonna get there tho, but it's markedly better 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM is gonna pull some of yall back in Just now, stormtracker said: Snow on the door step at 78 Kids…..this is what a rollercoaster of emotions looks like. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Well there’s your run of the mill 300 mile move 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Snow overspreads the area at 84. Too bad it's the NAM..but maybe a signal for the real models? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 That one was easy to see. Watch that h5 trough angle shift about 45 degrees counterclockwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Kids…..this is what a rollercoaster of emotions looks like. Make sure you quote everybody else that had the same reaction too...which is most everybody 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Snow overspreads the area at 84. Too bad it's the NAM..but maybe a signal for the real models? Well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 WB 0Z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That one was easy to see. Watch that h5 trough angle shift about 45 degrees counterclockwise It snuck up on me. Before 60, it was looking almost like 18z...northern stream did look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Um guys, what is happening? NAM leading the way now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Snow overspreads the area at 84. Too bad it's the NAM..but maybe a signal for the real models? Huge jump. And the changes at h5 were fun to watch. Hold it back just a tad and sharpen it just a touch and you’ve got a big storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The key time is from about 54-66 hours. That’s gonna be the make or break on this evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Huge jump. And the changes at h5 were fun to watch. Hold it back just a tad and sharpen it just a touch and you’ve got a big storm Verbatim DC on south would've seen decent snows this run. I liked the way the PVA was orientated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Um guys, what is happening? NAM leading the way now? Who knows. Wait for backup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 51 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok, JV model time. First up, NAM. Kinda shocked there's not SREF talk..usually the first sign of desperation and a dark, dark road to come. You’re right about what guidance is most reliable but I think it’s time we stop having to add an obligatory apology for discussing the NAM or icon or anything else. It’s not like they come out at the same time and are distracting from better analysts. And there is no post limit. Lastly it’s not like they are totally useless. It’s worth noting what the preponderance of evidence shows. Especially if we’re about to elevate the Gfs to lone superpower model status. What if it’s off it’s rocker? It’s been impressively better since the last upgrade but it’s not flawless. We need additional data, even if it’s slightly lower quality. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Is this one step forward, backward, moonwalk, or stanky leg? Asking for a admin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: You’re right about what guidance is most reliable but I think it’s time we stop having to add an obligatory apology for discussing the NAM or icon or anything else. It’s not like they come out at the same time and are distracting from better analysts. And there is no posy limit. Lastly it’s not like they are totally useless. It’s worth noting what the preponderance of evidence shows. Especially if we’re about to elevate the Gfs to line superpower model status. What if it’s off it’s rocker? It’s been impressively better since the last upgrade but it’s not flawless. We need additional data, even if it’s slightly lower quality. I mean, I pretty much said that..use the NAM for guidance and trends. The problem with GFS vs Euro is perception. In objective analysis, yes, the Euro scores better. But people always go with "what have you done for me lately" (oooooooo yeah. sorry). So, the GFS has kinda led the way on the most recent storms at longer range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 NS with a big improvement, sloppy phase with the SS but does get it done by 84. And of course it has the SW like 500 miles west of where the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: I mean, I pretty much said that..use the NAM for guidance and trends. The problem with GFS vs Euro is perception. In objective analysis, yes, the Euro scores better. But people always go with "what have you done for me lately" (oooooooo yeah. sorry). So, the GFS has kinda led the way on the most recent storms at longer range Well said…perception is reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Ok, guys and gals, just hear me out. What if..just what if…the JVs all come towards the Euro from a couple days ago while the Euro goes how the JVs went from a couple days ago? And what if we just don’t know? I was pretty sure some said the storm was done and it’s only 24-120 hours away so all I’m trying to say is people will be here and comment every few min. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 You know guys… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just because. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RGEM and NAM leading the way. Meso takeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 King NAM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Plain. All I did was connect valleys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, wtkidz said: Just because. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 We get that line to vertical .. maybe 6 hours earlier and 50-75 miles farther west … game on 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now