WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Not you of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Anywho, carry on. Just checking in on the meltdowns lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 5 days? On Monday it was projected to begin on Sunday if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, grhqofb5 said: On Monday it was projected to begin on Sunday if I recall correctly. It’s Tuesday, with a potential storm start of Friday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Anywho, carry on. Just checking in on the meltdowns lol Lol they’ve been good tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I'm no weather expert but man there's a lot of crybabies in this thread. Eta I'm gonna remember this meltdown mess the next time somebody blathers to me about "climo" in SoMD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said: So, storm is cancelled 5 days before it was supposed to start? That’s almost as ridiculous as saying we’re going to get a HECS 6 days before it’s supposed to start isn’t it? People keep failing this simple math problem - I think as kind of a defense mechanism. Precipitation is 3 days out, not 5 days. At hour 36 we will already know if the trof is sharp enough to work out. The key features are well within short range now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: People keep failing this simple math problem - I think as kind of a defense mechanism. Precipitation is 3 days out, not 5 days. At hour 36 we will already know if the trof is sharp enough to work out. The key features are well within short range now. I think 36 might be a little early. I was doing all my “looking” at about the 12z Friday time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 take this for the very little bit this is worth, but the 18z EPS didn’t totally cave - it’s really pretty identical to 12z but slightly more suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: take this for the very little bit this is worth, but the 18z EPS didn’t totally cave - it’s really pretty identical to 12z but slightly more suppressed How much of that is from Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: take this for the very little bit this is worth, but the 18z EPS didn’t totally cave - it’s really pretty identical to 12z but slightly more suppressed Were still in the game. This could easily come north and give us a solid advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 How much of that is from Thursday. none - that’s a 48hr snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: none - that’s a 48hr snow map. Gotcha. Sorry I should have looked closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Well I think the idea is that it will probably snow. But the HECS and BECS typically have the GFS or Euro prompting wide eye emoji posts 5 days out and closer for almost every run. And when it goes away inside of 4 days, it rarely ever comes back. That’s the reality. And let’s face it. 3-6 is nice. But 30” with 3 foot drifts are better. Personally, I think a 12-18 HECS is coming and everyone will cash in. It’s not any of the storms on the current play board. But it’s coming. I feel it in this pattern. . 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro has become unreliable, same tier as gem and ukmet in my mind now. But hey, at least we didn’t have as much skin in the game as DT. Dude has built a business around hugging the euro. Looks like an amateur now, so much for those stunning and historic model runs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: People keep failing this simple math problem - I think as kind of a defense mechanism. Precipitation is 3 days out, not 5 days. At hour 36 we will already know if the trof is sharp enough to work out. The key features are well within short range now. Then we’ll know that the “trof” is not sharp enough on Thursday at 12:00 a.m., 36 hours before the estimated start, and then it will be over. I will remember that. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, grhqofb5 said: Then we’ll know that the “trof” is not sharp enough on Thursday at 12:00 a.m., 36 hours before the estimated start, and then it will be over. I will remember that. Thank you. I'm being a little conservative. We'll probably know sooner than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Ok, JV model time. First up, NAM. Kinda shocked there's not SREF talk..usually the first sign of desperation and a dark, dark road to come. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, mappy said: Anywho, carry on. Just checking in on the meltdowns lol Come back in like 2 hours if you can. It's going to be full f*cking Fukushima in here. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Ok, JV model time. First up, NAM. Kinda shocked there's not SREF talk..usually the first sign of desperation and a dark, dark road to come. Still alot of big hits....waaay more than i imagined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: Still alot of big hits....waaay more than i imagined Why did you have to post this? Reeling me back in to continue following the Faux King. Guess I’m staying up for the euro tonight… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Nam better with the NS..can't buy a sw vort push. dammit. Can you imagine if that vort had just moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nam better with the NS..can't buy a sw vort push. dammit. Can you imagine if that vort had just moved east. Potentially stupid question here...would we almost not do half-badly if that northern stream shortwave just ended up being a fair bit stronger over time, and screw the southern vort? Like if it digs a lot more somehow, some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nam better with the NS..can't buy a sw vort push. dammit. Can you imagine if that vort had just moved east. It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It is Imma be honest. I have no idea what the **** is going on with the NAM and what I'm looking for anymore. It's a mess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Imma be honest. I have no idea what the **** is going on with the NAM and what I'm looking for anymore. It's a mess It’s sharper and deeper, but probably not enough. It is hanging back a tad also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Oh shit, NAM with the head fake. Looks better at 69 (heh heh)...still not gonna get there tho, but it's markedly better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM is gonna pull some of yall back in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Oh shit, NAM with the head fake. Looks better at 69 (heh heh)...still not gonna get there tho, but it's markedly better It’s way better at 72. I hate the nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Nam doing nam things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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