Rhino16 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Hopefully 0z is no worse. 18z Euro runs are just weird to me. Don’t trust them for some reason. RIC people are suffering though. Too far north, too far south. At least it’s something that isn’t massive ice. Whatever though, I need to go do some work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The gfs isn't correct either you guys know that right? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 agreed, but jeez man, a total cave from the EURO less than 24 hours after it was showing 1'+ through most of the area 5 days out? are we in bizarro land?Couldn't even handle stuff 60 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: The gfs isn't correct either you guys know that right? At least the GFS hasn't had 3 runs showing a monster coastal storm within the past two days lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Let's not forget the GFS's tendency to amplify shortwaves and trend north/west 48 hours before the storm this year. Definitely like what I see right now. Hopefully we will be celebrating come Friday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m probably the location at the lowest as a % of climo right now. Most places are getting close or have passed climo end in at 25%. But I haven’t complained once. Because it’s just a fluke. Blind luck. The fact we’ve had 3 snow events and are tracking several more is the pattern. Exactly where gets fringed or 5” or 10 is just luck. Over time elevation will help die to enhanced lift and colder temps but short term there are no guarantees. And I see several more chances at least before the pattern expired so let’s wait before we declare it disappointing. The biggest problem I see is that we’re still on the NW flow on the backside of a trough after it progressed following the phased bomb. The mean trough hasn’t yet retrograded enough, everything this year is progressing so slow! That phased bomb was just a fluke that amplified and took advantage of a temporarily weakness in the trough to cut. But until about the 25th we’re still in a NW flow. The kind of waves you’re describing, we had a ton in 2014-2015, usually require the trough axis to be further west. Weak open waves will get squashed south of us if the guidance is even close on the baroclinic boundary and trough axis. Until we get the trough axis west a bit we will need something a bit more amplified to pump ridging and defy the NW flow. If I was in Richmond or Raleigh or maybe even as far north as DC itself I might be rooting for open waves in this pattern, but if we want a region wide flush hit we need something to phase just a bit. I was definitely thinking of your area as one that has been really screwed so far. And like I said "so far" in my post. And if it wasn't for the pattern being really good so far and for people cashing in around me by pure luck, what I've gotten so far would have been pretty good given expectations before the winter started. But if the pattern really does flip in February, which is still unknown but being speculated, that gives us about two weeks to make it happen. And unless something changes, not much is going to happen for probably close to a week if the weekend thing misses as it appears it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Where is zywts ecwmf server picture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: Where is zywts ecwmf server picture Down for unscheduled maintenance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: The main NS shortwave on the HH GFS is not quite as flat/strung out this run. Slight improvement, but ground truth is pretty much the same. Still has that follow up piece that also doesn't do much, and I as I said earlier, I kinda doubt it plays out like this. Just my opinion. I agree with you, but remember what we said about the Sunday deal? Small, better changes that were offset by other changes that were worse, and also that the ultimate solution didn’t seem plausible. It’s just that this thing is sliding rather than a wound-up bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Let's not forget the GFS's tendency to amplify shortwaves and trend north/west 48 hours before the storm this year. Definitely like what I see right now. Hopefully we will be celebrating come Friday. Is this still the case with the lastest op version of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10. Oh God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, Steve25 said: At least the GFS hasn't had 3 runs showing a monster coastal storm within the past two days lol It's the volcano's fault. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The gfs isn't correct either you guys know that right? They already made up their minds. They don’t deserve snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 So, storm is cancelled 5 days before it was supposed to start? That’s almost as ridiculous as saying we’re going to get a HECS 6 days before it’s supposed to start isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, grhqofb5 said: So, storm is cancelled 5 days before it was supposed to start? That’s almost as ridiculous as saying we’re going to get a HECS 6 days before it’s supposed to start isn’t it? It starts in about 72 hours. Well, it was going to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 We can always change the thread name to 28-29. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, grhqofb5 said: So, storm is cancelled 5 days before it was supposed to start? That’s almost as ridiculous as saying we’re going to get a HECS 6 days before it’s supposed to start isn’t it? 5 days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, Amped said: This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10. The Boxing Day Blizzard. I was living in northern New Jersey at the time, and if I remember correctly it was the 12z GFS on 12/24 which provided a miracle after many had given up. Awesome storm 20 inches of snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said: The Boxing Day Blizzard. I was living in northern New Jersey at the time, and if I remember correctly it was the 12z GFS on 12/24 which provided a miracle after many had given up. Awesome storm 20 inches of snow! Uh oh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: The Boxing Day Blizzard. I was living in northern New Jersey at the time, and if I remember correctly it was the 12z GFS on 12/24 which provided a miracle after many had given up. Awesome storm 20 inches of snow! One doesn’t speak of said storm in the MA forum 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It starts in about 72 hours. Well, it was going to. Ok. So 96 hours out it’s looks great, 72 hours out it a dud? Seems to me like the models rule the weather forecasting universe until they’re completely wrong. But then right again 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 36 minutes ago, Amped said: This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10. Oh lord, now you’ve done it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 lol you guys are a mess. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: One doesn’t speak of said storm in the MA forum @Amped just did lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Oh lord, now you’ve done it. Lol lololololol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, mappy said: lol you guys are a mess. Hey now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Hey now Not you of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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