SnowGolfBro Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s cold however. No taking that away For sure. If we can somehow squeeze out .25 qpf with ratios we could get close to a warning level snow. That’s my best worst case scenario as the NWS would put it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Well hopefully we can all agree that the GEFS was worse. Note that this includes about 1” from Thurs. Yes, IMO, the run overall was a step backwards. Our best hope is that the Thursday feature with the arctic boundary overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh! I thought there was a gulf element to this we were trying to get the ns to combine with It decided to stop off for drinks and fun in Tijuana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It decided to stop off for drinks and fun in Tijuana. Ahhh of course...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This here? (bear with me as I'm trying to learn) That’s the 700 level. Look at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 If you're always negative you're not allowed to say you were right if this thing fails...blind squirrel/nut deal 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s the 700 level. Look at 500 Alright, second try...this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Let's hear a little more about your thoughts. The evolution verbatim I'm not sure it will get with all these waves in flow. The Euro digs the NS sw more and involves most of the ss energy, while the GFS leaves it behind and has a following ss wave. The lead wave ends up flat/ damped as it moves east, and the following energy is also weak, and neither are able to induce a strong enough surface low very close to the coast. CMC is kinda interesting in that it is pretty much in between, with a decently sharp sw, but it is very positively tilted/progressive, and the outcome is actually worse than the GFS. 12z Euro moved more towards a further offshore developing low, but is still decent for eastern areas. Next few runs will be telling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Whoever said there isn't SS energy involved is wrong FYI, can clearly see both streams here. Yea it ends up mostly NS, but the older more amped runs involved more phasing of the two streams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Mount Holly thoughts- basically stay tuned, we just cant know yet. Friday night into Saturday, a wave diving southeast out of central Canada will round the base of the long wave trough axis and head east. As the mid-level wave exits the east coast of the United States surface low pressure is forecast to form off of the NC coast. The latest run of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC have the low offshore, but confidence is low here. It should also be noted that the energy responsible for the surface cyclogenesis is still across northern Alaska, meaning a lot can change. Have gone ahead and kept PoPs in the chance range at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same? The surface low and the 500mb low are 800 miles apart on some models. The precip moves in lockstep with the baroclinic zone at this point. Even better if the baroclinic zone is further north In AL/MS so the low gets cranking earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same? Actually had that thought and it isn’t unheard of for fronts to not progress as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same? So you're saying there's a chance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same? I was wondering the same thing.. umm 2014 memory? Although that year I think we also saw trends from north to south! LOL! We were always in the sweet spot that year. We can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright, second try...this? Yes. That piece wasn’t there in the better euro runs. I envision it as a boot for our sw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, Heisy said: Whoever said there isn't SS energy involved is wrong FYI, can clearly see both streams here. Yea it ends up mostly NS, but the older more amped runs involved more phasing of the two streams That’s true. I’m the one who said it. As of now, all models are basically leaving this behind (for the most part) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: To be fair, it kinda depends on your exact location. I’m not saying it has been terrible, but given they hype and the close calls, my location has felt like a disappointment so far. If you live in parts of Virginia or the Eastern Shore, it’s been pretty awesome and might be about to be one of their best winters in recent memory if they hit it big on this one. I’m probably the location at the lowest as a % of climo right now. Most places are getting close or have passed climo end in at 25%. But I haven’t complained once. Because it’s just a fluke. Blind luck. The fact we’ve had 3 snow events and are tracking several more is the pattern. Exactly where gets fringed or 5” or 10 is just luck. Over time elevation will help die to enhanced lift and colder temps but short term there are no guarantees. And I see several more chances at least before the pattern expired so let’s wait before we declare it disappointing. 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The main NS shortwave on the HH GFS is not quite as flat/strung out this run. Slight improvement, but ground truth is pretty much the same. Still has that follow up piece that also doesn't do much, and I as I said earlier, I kinda doubt it plays out like this. Just my opinion. 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same? The biggest problem I see is that we’re still on the NW flow on the backside of a trough after it progressed following the phased bomb. The mean trough hasn’t yet retrograded enough, everything this year is progressing so slow! That phased bomb was just a fluke that amplified and took advantage of a temporarily weakness in the trough to cut. But until about the 25th we’re still in a NW flow. The kind of waves you’re describing, we had a ton in 2014-2015, usually require the trough axis to be further west. Weak open waves will get squashed south of us if the guidance is even close on the baroclinic boundary and trough axis. Until we get the trough axis west a bit we will need something a bit more amplified to pump ridging and defy the NW flow. If I was in Richmond or Raleigh or maybe even as far north as DC itself I might be rooting for open waves in this pattern, but if we want a region wide flush hit we need something to phase just a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I thought we had learned by now not to piss off the snow gods? Some of y’all deserve to get burnt for being so greedy. Just appreciate what you get these days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I’m still on the way home stopped for dinner so no fancy graphics but the 18z rgem is an example. It has some phasing between the streams and still is a miss anywhere NW of DC and only fringed them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It would appear we're homing in on the SE VA/NE NC special that some have been suspecting since last night. Hope they cash in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It would appear we're homing in on the SE VA/NE NC special that some have been suspecting since last night. Hope they cash in!What a pos Model 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 18z EC continues south and east trend. The writing is probably on the wall with this one. NC and VA capes look to do best, but wouldn’t be surprised if there was even more of a push S/E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It would appear we're homing in on the SE VA/NE NC special that some have been suspecting since last night. Hope they cash in!Hahahaha what a joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Let's get through 0z before we start chucking towels at least. 18z tomorrow is when I'll think about surrender. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Let's get through 0z before we start chucking towels at least. 18z tomorrow is when I'll think about surrender. agreed, but jeez man, a total cave from the EURO less than 24 hours after it was showing 1'+ through most of the area 5 days out? are we in bizarro land? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: It would appear we're homing in on the SE VA/NE NC special that some have been suspecting since last night. Hope they cash in! Precip over at 90 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: agreed, but jeez man, a total cave from the EURO less than 24 hours after it was showing 1'+ through most of the area 5 days out? are we in bizarro land? Total loss of any trust in that model , EPS included. Waste your time and get your excitment up for a POS model. Can not even get close to a correct forecast a few days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro has fallen apart. Didn't someone mention that the upgrade seemed to impact its accuracy in our part of the world? This is just sad. I'm wondering how DT will continue on without his precious Euro. Still looks like it could be a nice southern slider if it can hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Precip over at 90 hours? yeah - it's pretty much wrapped up by 90. light snow on the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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