Sernest14 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looks like a slight tick NW this run - baby steps. Get this for 3-4 more runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I don’t see a worsening trend here whatsoever. If anything, things look better at 500mb than previous runs. Plenty of room for this to change - the issue is, there’s also plenty of room for this to track further SE as well. Too much time left to assume an outcome in either direction with the looming large differences at h5/500 The window is closing for places in far W and NW portions of the CWA, but 95 and east? Still PLENTY of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 the 18z gfs is an epic catastrophe 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Sernest14 said: Looks like a slight tick NW this run - baby steps. Get this for 3-4 more runs We need more than a tick! We need a leap! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ji said: the 18z gfs is an epic catastrophe There goes JI talking about himself again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: There goes JI talking about himself again He's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro is not the same model as years ago. And, ROI tracking snow events is going negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: He's right. Not any worse than 12z, a bit NW even. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Not any worse than 12z, a bit NW even. He didnt say it was worse than 12Z. He said it was a disaster. And he's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The gfs was an improvement. The h5 that creates the storm was deeper. We are being done in again by an upper midwest ns that’s giving our piece the boot just as it arrives. We need that piece gone. Run the loop. You’ll see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The main NS shortwave on the HH GFS is not quite as flat/strung out this run. Slight improvement, but ground truth is pretty much the same. Still has that follow up piece that also doesn't do much, and I as I said earlier, I kinda doubt it plays out like this. Just my opinion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The main NS shortwave on the HH GFS is not quite as flat/strung out this run. Slight improvement, but ground truth is pretty much the same. Still has that follow up piece that also doesn't do much, and I as I said earlier, I kinda doubt it plays out like this. Just my opinion. Let's hear a little more about your thoughts. The evolution verbatim I'm not sure it will get with all these waves in flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs was an improvement. The h5 that creates the storm was deeper. We are being done in again by an upper midwest ns that’s giving our piece the boot just as it arrives. We need that piece gone. Run the loop. You’ll see it. Ah dang it not again! And "Our piece" which one? The ns or ss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Went back and looked at the Euro 6z ensemble. We should have picked up on it but there's a panel in there that probably was a point of concern. 2 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: "Our piece" which one? The ns or ss? There is no ss. All of this right now is ns energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Was in the barber chair so couldn’t look live, but i just looked and trying to figure out where these “it’s worse” takes are coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Went back and looked at the Euro 6z ensemble. We should have picked up on it but there's a panel in there that probably was a point of concern. Omg hahah this is great material! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 My guess is snow will tick NW to EZF and I will be smoking cirrus at game time. Barring any substantial changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: There is no ss. All of this right now is ns energy. Oh! I thought there was a gulf element to this we were trying to get the ns to combine with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Was in the barber chair so couldn’t look live, but i just looked and trying to figure out where these “it’s worse” takes are coming from? Definitely wasn't worse... but only some of us can interpret outputs I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 You have to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run…. WB GFS 18Z compared to five runs ago….I won’t run until 18Z Th. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Was in the barber chair so couldn’t look live, but i just looked and trying to figure out where these “it’s worse” takes are coming from? I dunno. People need to get a grip. All these “it’s over” posts are nails, man. Makes it hard to wanna read these things and try to enjoy what might happen 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I also just tuned in. To me it whiffs the entire DC Baltimore area. Any different than earlier runs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs was an improvement. The h5 that creates the storm was deeper. We are being done in again by an upper midwest ns that’s giving our piece the boot just as it arrives. We need that piece gone. Run the loop. You’ll see it. This here? (bear with me as I'm trying to learn) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not that carries much if any weight, but the 18z icon is also slightly farther south and east that it was on its 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not mad at that run, there is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: My guess is snow will tick NW to EZF and I will be smoking cirrus at game time. Barring any substantial changes. Yeah it will trend just enough to keep us glued to the radar Friday night lol. We need a 20 yard TD pass with no time on the clock. The NW crew needs the Music City miracle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Well hopefully we can all agree that the GEFS was worse. Note that this includes about 1” from Thurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Yeah it will trend just enough to keep us glued to the radar Friday night lol. We need a 20 yard TD pass with no time on the clock. The NW crew needs the Music City miracle. It’s cold however. No taking that away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 "Slip slidin' away" Or was it even a chance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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