EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: i mean ive had 3 3-4 inch storms....that would be great in Raleigh. I missed out on the first storm basically Be thankful you got 3 so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: when models are still all over the place with the 500mb setup is silly That’s a good point. That happened once earlier. Might have been the first storm. But the h5 plots are changing quite dramatically for something basically 96 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, LP08 said: I know it’s the NAM but it looked to be doing something completely different than other runs. I’m too dumb to guess. The one day I was wishing the NAM ran to 90. Or even just 87! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, The Ole Bucket said: The one day I was wishing the NAM ran to 90. Or even just 87! Anything past 6 on the NAM is terrible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Anything past 6 on the NAM is terrible. And likely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Anything past 6 on the NAM is terrible. I mean for wishcasting, not for anything reasonable. 24 hours before the last storm the NAM said I was gonna strike out on snow and have 0.75" of ice. Suffice to say that did not happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: You’re not dreaming. Still well within range to see enough of shift north to see advisory / low end warning snowfall in the metro corridor and points ESE. Some models already showing it, although it would be nice to see an appreciable trend begin at 18z or 0z tonight Writing the storm off this early when models are still all over the place with the 500mb setup is silly Give me a bob chill 3-6 type event with temps in the upper teens and 20s and I’m happy as can be. This is just after the mid point in January in the mid Atlantic and we’re talking about events #4 and 5 hitting by the end of this week. People Complaining about that is ridiculous, I’m sorry The need for some to see a MECS or HECS potential with every coastal is honestly pretty annoying. Yeah man, snow before an arctic dump is rare and awesome here. 13 degree lows on dry brown frozen landscape is lame. Also I love it this time of year because the sun angle is still low and we can hang onto a snow pack. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a good point. That happened once earlier. Might have been the first storm. But the h5 plots are changing quite dramatically for something basically 96 hours out Exactly. It’s not like we’re seeing the Euro GFS GEFS Ukie NAM and company with near identical 500mb/h5 setups and just slight differences in end result from something like the trough axis. There are still HUGE differences in the evolution of the pattern / storm leading into this event on almost every model. We are going to need to wait until the proverbial players on the field before we start seeing models come around to a consensus. It is completely normal for that to happen within 72-84 hours of an event. Those claiming they are certain that things will happen one way or the other are making predictions based on gut feelings / hopium - nothing more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anything past 6 on the NAM is terrible. And at that point we’re using the HRRR / RAP and Nowcasting anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And likely wrong Hr 3 is its wheelhouse. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Hr 3 is it’s wheelhouse. We will know by Saturday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 No word on the royal foot stool, ICON? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Toomer Booger just declared this dead for NY and Bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Toomer Booger just declared this dead for NY and Bos I hope they are prepared for a major storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The hi res NAM - which is supposed to be good at deciphering setups like we saw with the last storm / had places NW of Winchester seeing 2-3” the day before the storm. That model is completely out to lunch. They should just revert back for the ETA and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: No word on the royal foot stool, ICON? About the same as 12z. H5 is slightly more progressive. Didn't improve for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Toomer Booger just declared this dead for NY and Bos It’s definitely dead for them. We are close enough to the event where I’d say the DC - Baltimore and MAYBE Philly metro are still very much in the game for appreciable snow - but almost zero shot NYC or Boston sees anything significant from this. Nothing to capture the storm or drive it north up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No word on the royal foot stool, ICON? Bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 It’s fine guys - we created a thread - so now the NW trend, by weenie law, must commence at 0z tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'm ready for that NW trend, which is usually bad for my area (just south of Lynchburg) to begin any time now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS and GEPS means both moved toward a snowier outcome for us based on what I can see. And EPS still looks pretty good. Still plenty of hope for a nice powder event. 40% of the Euro ENS (20/50 members) were absolute crushers … or is that a bad ensemble run after a bad op run? Clarify: meaning the Euro has moved towards a GFSish outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, jayyy said: The hi res NAM - which is supposed to be good at deciphering setups like we saw with the last storm / had places NW of Winchester seeing 2-3” the day before the storm. That model is completely out to lunch. They should just revert back for the ETA and call it a day There is a Thursday storm that’s running up that way with 1-3” the day before this… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Bad Not bad at 500mb. I'll take that look and assume they'll be precip further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Amped said: Not bad at 500mb. I'll take that look and assume they'll be precip further northwest. Same, that was better in some ways. 18z GFS is also "not worse" than 12z if you ask me. Bleeding stopped maybe we can now bring it NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Icon and RGEM keep us in the game at least. The GFS is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Not bad at 500mb. I'll take that look and assume they'll be precip further northwest. Man that never works, lol (sorry I'm only speaking for my yard that doesn't like these sliders for whatever reason) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Icon and RGEM keep us in the game at least. The GFS is Didn't realize the RGEM was a solid improvement actually from 12z oddly enough. Better phase further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I mentioned to some weather weenies in Toronto that this thread was open, and a sort of glazed look of delight mingled with apprehension came upon them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: It’s over. Not our storm. SE VA jackpot. We keep getting fringed. GFS is new King GFS looked better this run though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: It’s over. Not our storm. SE VA jackpot. We keep getting fringed. GFS is new King If it keeps trending the way it is none of VA may end up in the game. What a mess. Pops off of Daytona and tracks to Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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