WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GEFS and GEPS means both moved toward a snowier outcome for us based on what I can see. And EPS still looks pretty good. Still plenty of hope for a nice powder event. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'd take the 12z Euro for mby in a skinny minute. Lowlanders get snow with no temp issues it seems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Go to Chincoteague and see the lighthouse and ponies in the snow. Stay at the Hampton Inn and have dinner at Bill's Prime (reservations recommended...strongly recommend the Pork Shank Osso Bucco). I literally just saved this in my extensive "Restaurants Around the US" list on Google. It's deep and I've only tried like 8 on it, but I'm on a mission. Thanks for the rec! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12z EC was definitely a step back - especially compared to the 00z run. Axis of heaviest precip stays south and east of DC-Balt. Not surprisingly, but the 12z EC ENS has also shifted with sfc low positions farther east. Looks good from Richmond to Norfolk, but not farther n/w. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: GEFS 24hr precip panels look like a pretty nice improvement on the latest run. Am I missing something? GEFS have been awful in previous storms and the Euro is taking steps back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS and GEPS means both moved toward a snowier outcome for us based on what I can see. And EPS still looks pretty good. Still plenty of hope for a nice powder event. Low end warning totals for our yards is a reasonable boom here. We've seen plenty of these over the years. The typical screw job when we're in the crosshairs is losing on the front due to temps. I have no strong feeling as to whether or not the jack stripe runs the typical climo line or not but for now, it seems like it should. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I literally just saved this in my extensive "Restaurants Around the US" list on Google. It's deep and I've only tried like 8 on it, but I'm on a mission. Thanks for the rec! Other spots worth eating at for Chincoteague: 1.) Lunch (summer): SeaStar Cafe 2.) Dinner, Easter through Christmas (reservations strongly recommended): Etta's Channel Side (great views). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Low end warning totals for our yards is a reasonable boom here. We've seen plenty of these over the years. The typical screw job when we're in the crosshairs is losing on the front due to temps. I have no strong feeling as to whether or not the jack stripe runs the typical climo line or not but for now, it seems like it should. Ratios will be better on the NW side so we'll win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: GEFS have been awful in previous storms and the Euro is taking steps back? GEFS was awful for this past weekend, but there was clearly some (as yet to me unknown) reason why that is. All the ensemble systems struggled, although the EPS least of all. In that case, the operationals were all on the far west end of the ensembles. That was a red flag. In this case, they are much more representative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Low end warning totals for our yards is a reasonable boom here. We've seen plenty of these over the years. The typical screw job when we're in the crosshairs is losing on the front due to temps. I have no strong feeling as to whether or not the jack stripe runs the typical climo line or not but for now, it seems like it should. getting tired of the 3-5 stuff....looks like we have to wait till next year Modoki Nino to bust out of this slump! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I want to remind people in here that short term trends in the NS vort are absolutely going to occur. Even a marginal trend in the latitudinal gain would make a significant difference to the proposed forecast. Considering the primed thermal environment on the lead up, the main factor for best accumulation will be the location of mid-level ascent within the DGZ that can really make snow accumulation maximized. Right now, the best frontogen is displaced to the SE towards the eastern shore from a line extending through South-Central VA up to Cambridge and over to Rehoboth. A bump 30-50 miles north is within reason, and would put NoVA/DC/Northern Neck of the Eastern Shore within play for better snow accumulations. Keep the faith! 6 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 54 minutes ago, mappy said: I keep telling you that in the long term it all works out. but hey, if you wanna think you're a curse, by all means, I can't stop you for being negative. that was mostly tongue-in-cheek, Katie. But, also, it's kinda hilarious that the moment I move up to the Hereford Zone we hit a succession of variance to the immediate south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: getting tired of the 3-5 stuff....looks like we have to wait till next year Modoki Nino to bust out of this slump! Well, it's a Nina, northern stream dominant, no stable block, and also January. A big storm will have a lot to overcome until Feb imho. Not being satisfied with THIS January is ridiculous. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Well, it's a Nina, northern stream dominant, no stable block, and also January. A big storm will have a lot to overcome until Feb imho. Not being satisfied with THIS January is ridiculous. i mean ive had 3 3-4 inch storms....that would be great in Raleigh. I missed out on the first storm basically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: As Tomer said: today’s trends have been in the direction with more separation between the troughs. I am hoping the one on the northern stream can dig and move a bit quicker so we have a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Well, it's a Nina, northern stream dominant, no stable block, and also January. A big storm will have a lot to overcome until Feb imho. Not being satisfied with THIS January is ridiculous. Speaking of which...what ABOUT February, btw? (or even late Jan, lol) I mean...does it look more like a typical blah Nina Feb, or do we get a few more chances?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is perfectly realistic with upper level setup. Makes more sense than a wound bomb (which would be awesome of course). 4 days out on the northern periphery of the cold snow side of a progressive shortwave? How can you not like that? And not figting temps tooth and nail? Mostly importantly, we are on a heater and yes, it does want to snow here. My morale is back. Let's bring this on home folks. 18z begins the turn around. All aboard! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I hope they get an inch of ice! Only the OG members will get that reference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Speaking of which...what ABOUT February, btw? I mean...does it look more like a typical blah Nina Feb, or do we get a few more chances?... History/climo says a flip to warm and early end to winter. But this winter has made every long range forecaster remember that it's impossible to predict snow in advance. So, it's impossible for me or you or anyone to have any idea what Feb has in store. Looks to start off the same way this month is prob going to end. Looking beyond that isn't something I do beyond a wild guess like everyone else. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My morale is back. Let's bring this on home folks. 18z begins the turn around. All aboard! I'm feeling a Calvert county jackpot and am amping up to brag about it nonstop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: I'm feeling a Calvert county jackpot and am amping up to brag about it nonstop. hope so...its not many winters you are in the jackpot zone. enjoy every flake. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: i mean ive had 3 3-4 inch storms....that would be great in Reston majority of years. I missed out on the first storm basically Fixed your typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: I'm feeling a Calvert county jackpot and am amping up to brag about it nonstop. You’ve got a better shot at this than many of us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: History/climo says a flip to warm and early end to winter. 2000 looms large Maybe a every other month flip starting with November? would be a punting of february with a return in March, almost certainly favoring DC and points west vs. the south and east jackpot zones observed at least earlier in January, and potentally later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fixed your typo LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: that was mostly tongue-in-cheek, Katie. But, also, it's kinda hilarious that the moment I move up to the Hereford Zone we hit a succession of variance to the immediate south. FWIW, I don't blame you at all. Sometimes we win some, sometimes we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Idiot It's not a Toooomer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 I hope we can get back to the days when this janky ass board starts to collapse because of all the people on due to big hits on the models. Ah, the good ol' days. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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