Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Incredible turn of events! What in the world did the models miss! They didn't really miss anything. Had a hard time resolving multiple shortwave in fast flow out in time just like they always do. This stuff cuts both ways. Sometimes storms go poof and other times they go pop. Whenever we are in a busy NS pattern, you simply can't trust or feel confident in anything beyond 72 hours. Models did an excellent job honing in. Just wasn't the result most hoped for 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Thanks. I appreciate your valuable insight. I’ve been tracking snow for as long as I can remember, but this forum has been invaluable in trying to understand how it all works. No problem at all. Always keep in mind, no matter what any model shows IRT a storm, if the run is showing something that rarely if ever happens in your yard, go with your climo. This was my mental breakthrough some years back. Topography, geography, and latitude are powerful drivers in our area. That's why storms often break the same way over and over in your yard. Don't expect a different outcome to come frequently or easy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: They didn't really miss anything. Had a hard time resolving multiple shortwave in fast flow out in time just like they always do. This stuff cuts both ways. Sometimes storms go poof and other times they go pop. Whenever we are in a busy NS pattern, you simply can't trust or feel confident in anything beyond 72 hours. Models did an excellent job honing in. Just wasn't the result most hoped for Chill, PSU, Mill, Yoda….thanks and if I forgot some red taggers….thank you. One is never too old to learn. Looking forward to more good times here. Remember all you youngns, don’t run and get one, but walk and get ‘‘em all. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Panic room would be making exponential profits this week. I feel bad that they closed it for renovations. @WxWatcher007 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Wasn’t se Va supposed to get a big snow about 12 hours ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wasn’t se Va supposed to get a big snow about 12 hours ago? They still might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This thing is sliding away from NC/VA even. I’m still hoping my nieces can get a good snow in the Raleigh area, but the trend is not their friend right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Panic room would be making exponential profits this week. I feel bad that they closed it for renovations. @WxWatcher007 I'm pretty sure @WxWatcher007 is doing quite well in retirement, still living off the interest he made at the old Panic Room casinos and bars! I hear Ji always tipped well, too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBeach Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wasn’t se Va supposed to get a big snow about 12 hours ago? Yes. And the latest is rubbish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Bet we can all will that back NW even more. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That’s well within the possible error of a 60 hour forecast. Let’s get that moderate snow back to about leesburg, 2-4 inches for all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 28 minutes ago, Scraff said: Bet we can all will that back NW even more. But it's the EURO 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 But it's the EURO Could be the New and Improved JMASent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter. Well said. Clearly the GFS OP has been taking the GFS ensembles and the Euro OP/Ensembles to the wood shed this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Panic room would be making exponential profits this week. I feel bad that they closed it for renovations. @WxWatcher007 5 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I'm pretty sure @WxWatcher007 is doing quite well in retirement, still living off the interest he made at the old Panic Room casinos and bars! I hear Ji always tipped well, too. Retired. Y’all on y’all own. 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 hours ago, losetoa6 said: That high taking on the last storm would have been something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: That high taking on the last storm would have been something So. Close. But so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 So. Close. But so far. Wasnt even close to Being close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 hours ago, jayyy said: So. Close. But so far. Wasnt even close to Being close Heavy snow depicted in the state of Maryland is close. Even if it is the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Glad I re-pinned this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Glad I re-pinned this. me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Well remember the best model runs for this storm also involved the least amount of snow for Thursday... Let's see what happens now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Anybody know whether JB still thinks the GFS is underdone on snow totals? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Need 100 mile shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Fv3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Fv3 does look better -- my goal is just to get a period of flurries in CHO, lol. maybe achievable 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Lol would take a super miracle to even get flurries into S MD... it's gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Lol would take a super miracle to even get flurries into S MD... it's gone It's trying! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Big shifts in the morning models bringing precip back northwest.....does this continue? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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