BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro is way offshore. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Final Nail in the coffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro performed well with this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro performed well with this one GFS never really did bite that much on it. Euro had 12-20" for 3 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS never really did bite that much on it. Euro had 12-20" for 3 runs in a row. More like 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS never really did bite that much on it. Euro had 12-20" for 3 runs in a row. Can’t trust it when it’s on its own. Never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS never really did bite that much on it. Euro had 12-20" for 3 runs in a row. DT taking another L 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, ryanconway63 said: DT taking another L He actually said last night that the Euro is no longer the king on his Twitter 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: DT taking another L he admitted on the twitter that the King is Dead. Just a pitiful performance...even more so the EPS which has us at 8 inch mean. the Op is one thing but the EPS--wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, yoda said: He actually said last night that the Euro is no longer the king on his Twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 There is one caveat to this … it’s not wrong yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Alternatively: DT = guy in car Elk = GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Y’all will laugh, but it wouldn’t take much at all to bring this back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 It's sad that the Euro is now the Queen, but glad that the GFS is having is time in the limelight. Never though I'd see the day. Prob temporary, but still... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Y’all will laugh, but it wouldn’t take much at all to bring this back. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 In before this front passed tonight/tomorrow and the models all show a snow bomb at 12z tomorrow. You heard it here first and yes I take Venmo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It's sad that the Euro is now the Queen, but glad that the GFS is having is time in the limelight. Never though I'd see the day. Prob temporary, but still...It appears below seems to be working!“For the first time, the GFS will be coupled with a global wave model called WaveWatchIII offsite link which will extend current wave forecasts from 10 days out to 16 days and improve the prediction of ocean waves forced by the atmosphere. Coupling the GFS and wave models will streamline the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) production suite by consolidating atmospheric and wave forecast data and distributing them together. The GFS resolution will increase by doubling the number of vertical levels, from 64 to 127. Improvements to atmospheric physics will enhance snow and precipitation forecasting capabilities in this latest upgrade as well.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Whatever "it" is about this progressive Northern stream pattern, it fits the gfs physics the best. Don't know what and it will definitely flip again but for right now, the gfs is the mid range king as long as the general longwave pattern holds in its current form imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: In before this front passed tonight/tomorrow and the models all show a snow bomb at 12z tomorrow. You heard it here first and yes I take Venmo. You'll be using the Venmo for payouts. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 It’s sad how far King Euro has fallen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, MDstorm said: It’s sad how far King Euro has fallen this winter. More like this clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Whatever "it" is about this progressive Northern stream pattern, it fits the gfs physics the best. Don't know what and it will definitely flip again but for right now, the gfs is the mid range king as long as the general longwave pattern holds in its current form imo. Seems in Nina years the GFS has excelled recently. Likely a function of how it handles the Northern stream and Nina being generally N Stream dominant. We just can't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Whatever "it" is about this progressive Northern stream pattern, it fits the gfs physics the best. Don't know what and it will definitely flip again but for right now, the gfs is the mid range king as long as the general longwave pattern holds in its current form imo. I’m learning from you all that the GFS doesn’t accurately do well with the SS in the long to mid range. Is that why the GFS didn’t pick up on the Jan 3rd storm until about 48 hours out? Do any of the other models figure this out any better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m learning from you all that the GFS doesn’t accurately do well with the SS in the long to mid range. Is that why the GFS didn’t pick up on the Jan 3rd storm until about 48 hours out? Do any of the other models figure this out any better? Actually, the GFS seemed to be the best fit model for Jan 3rd. I was under the belief that this was due to the model's handling of the northern stream, modelling that piece of energy to be faster than any other guidance, which caused it to get out of the way faster and allow the SS shortwave to amplify. Someone can correct me on this, but I do definitely remember that it was showing glimpses of decent hits at ~60-72hrs out, but upped the ante with other guidance following suit shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m learning from you all that the GFS doesn’t accurately do well with the SS in the long to mid range. Is that why the GFS didn’t pick up on the Jan 3rd storm until about 48 hours out? Do any of the other models figure this out any better? I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This is a total wow. I have never seen a system fall apart this fast and this close to the event. Whoever is programming these models needs to study this one. My goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The southeast forum is in meltdown mode now What happened? Even for SE VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, VABILLUPS1 said: This is a total wow. I have never seen a system fall apart this fast and this close to the event. Whoever is programming these models needs to study this one. My goodness. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Incredible turn of events! What in the world did the models miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I wish it was that black and white. Overall, on the balance, gfs is pretty good with NS driven patterns. However, gfs has been upgraded pretty recently and it takes a while to figure out strengths and weaknesses. I've thought the new gfs was pretty good when it was the FV3 or whatever it was called. Ran too cold but did well in mid range. The atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex when it comes to turning math into a simulation. No one model is ever even close to being "the one". That's where the fun of this hobby comes from. In the midrange, all models are wrong. How and what is wrong is up to the interpreter. Thanks. I appreciate your valuable insight. I’ve been tracking snow for as long as I can remember, but this forum has been invaluable in trying to understand how it all works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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