Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS has much more stream interaction The mean, fwiw, gives DCA around 0.2" of QPF...of course that could be influenced by a couple absurd members...I haven't looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: The mean, fwiw, gives DCA around 0.2" of QPF...of course that could be influenced by a couple absurd members...I haven't looked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 canadian ens mean is better than op tho by no means anything special yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GEPS looks much better 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Here we go…..I know most of you addicts stayed up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 should be a bit better, higher EC heights and more stream interaction 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 definitely more interaction now 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Needs a lot of work… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Congrats Chesapeake, Va. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 might not have gotten it done this run, but this is much better really nice 00z suite. improvements all around 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Trough remained positively tilted allowing the SLP development to not really gain latitude. Gonna be a miss to the SE again for DC area. Still a solid storm for the Lower Eastern Shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro is suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Looks basically the same as 12z, and similar to GFS and GGEM. NAM is by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Morch Madness said: Looks basically the same as 12z, and similar to GFS and GGEM. NAM is by itself. 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: might not have gotten it done this run, but this is much better really nice 00z suite. improvements all around So it looks the same and it’s much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, MDsnowPRO said: So it looks the same and it’s much better. Maybe brooklynwx is referring to the upper level looks, while the surface depiction is similar. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I agree that the difference is more apparent at the upper levels, but even at the surface you can see the LP is a bit stronger and holds on longer before being shot OTS vs 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 72 hours out with a storm SE of us and a ton of cold air. We’ve certainly been in worse positions before a storm. 00z trended better at h5/500mb. Not counting out the metro corridor and points SE until at least 0z tomorrow or 12z thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 EPS is much more amplified 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Seems to be the intriguing trend that the ensemble means are more amplified than the OP runs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Nam going wrong way of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 My mistake on the deleted post... 06z RGEM went other direction for us and missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 We are getting into the critical time period for any meaningful changes to occur. Fighting progressive flow, a positively tilted trough, and the shortwave lacks sharpness as it moves east. Euro had a sharper/deeper sw with a more neutral orientation on approach but has moved away from that in the last few runs. Ensembles all look at tad better with NW extent of precip than the ops but still a clear signal for an offshore low. Not making any predictions, but favoring a trip to the Beach to see some snow this weekend at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Hopefully this weekend works out, but mid to late next week still looks quite interesting on the means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Only 2 pages to read. And most were good posts. I’m impressed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: SEVA Special! It'll change though. Been through this many of times. If anything it will become an ECG special. Not many of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Anybody with 6z gefs? And 6z eps when they come out. Looking at the PSU site I can see several gefs that would be ok but those maps are hell to interpret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Gfs has taken a large step back after 0z. Oh well we still got Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody with 6z gefs? And 6z eps when they come out. Looking at the PSU site I can see several gefs that would be ok but those maps are hell to interpret 06z GEFS: Only 4 of the 30 get the 6" line near/at DCA Most of the snow DCA and N/W is from tomorrow morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Unfortunately the rest of the overnight guidance confirmed my suspicion regarding convergence v a true NW trend. Noting the run to run trend of a specific model is important and part of the analytical process and it’s especially significant if an outlier is trending towards the consensus since that increases confidence. That’s often what we do if the consensus is what we want. But the consensus here was a close miss. Early on there was a lot of cenebrating amplified trends in the Gfs and NAM but they were the least amplified models. The icon had been the second most amplified and it was trending weaker. The rgem and ggem had been in between and they stayed mostly identical. Based on that it seemed likely we weren’t seeing a true north trend towards a euro like soliton but rather a convergence of guidance towards a southeast VA hit. That wasn’t even a prediction of the outcome just a prediction of what the 0z guidance was doing. Maybe we see a real trend today. I tend to doubt it. The flow is not really supportive without the more amplified phased idea the euro had and everything has moved away from that. I continue to like the pattern overall abc especially like the window between the 25-30, just not bullish on a big hit from this. I could see some snow sneaking up to DC but the euro big storm idea seems pretty unlikely Imo. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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