wasnow215 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: We get that line to vertical .. maybe 6 hours earlier and 50-75 miles farther west … game on I like it where it is. Here in Central Va haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean, I pretty much said that..use the NAM for guidance and trends. The problem with GFS vs Euro is perception. In objective analysis, yes, the Euro scores better. But people always go with "what have you done for me lately" (oooooooo yeah. sorry). So, the GFS has kinda led the way on the most recent storms at longer range Those hemisphere h5 scores aren’t always relevant to the one thing we care about, the track and amplitude of low pressure systems along the east coast. The Uk for years killed those scores but I’d trust the icon over it at placing a mid latitude cyclone along the east coast at day 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Those hemisphere h5 scores aren’t always relevant to the one thing we care about, the track and amplitude of low pressure systems along the east coast. The Uk for years killed those scores but I’d trust the icon over it at placing a mid latitude cyclone along the east coast at day 5. This is an interesting post. I was looking at the North America h5 maps on the gfs earlier and something really stood out. At that range (view) when you toggled back 4,5,6 runs you couldn’t tell any real difference. Made me realize that it comes down to very small features when you’re looking at the practical weather at any specific time. So I can see a scenario where a model may score well on a large scale evaluation but poorly on the small scale that actually determines the real weather you get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 $50 says the ICON on TT freezes up and doesn’t show h5 at 54-78 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: $50 says the ICON on TT freezes up and doesn’t show h5 at 54-78 I actually like h5 thru 39 if were being honest with each other here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: I actually like h5 thru 39 if were being honest with each other here Was about to say the same. SW energy is moving out and the northern stream is digging *just* a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 If these changes carry over to the 12z runs, then I'll be on board. I want to see it survive a few initializations. Everything was slower on this run, and not just the main players. Could be running into the same issues again tomorrow -- and that matters when it comes to the NS wave being able to amplify instead of getting impinged on by the upstream NS kicker. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: I actually like h5 thru 39 if were being honest with each other here Was thinking the same thing...lol. More dig with the ns and less held back in the SW. We'll see if it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Then those positive changes are negligent I feel like by 60 hours... basically same as 18z, overall system held back a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Then those positive changes are negligent I feel like by 60 hours... basically same as 18z, overall system held back a bit more. Yeah, ICON is too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 RGEM similar to NAM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Yeah hr39 was probably the only panel that improved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Man this thread is just a ping pong ball of emotions, I am used to this forum swinging back and forth daily but now it’s a few times an hour 3 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I won $50 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: You know guys… The NAM. It’s made with real bits of panther 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I won $50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 00z CMC 18z CMC Whoa! That's a site that puts the CMC out earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whoa! That's a site that puts the CMC out earlier? I deleted it because I'm not sure my maps were right (yes, made the classic wrong date 00z mistake), but yes, you can get an early view at the CMC here: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The braided look on the WB ICON h5 vorticity panels is a neat effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whoa! That's a site that puts the CMC out earlier? The date is from last night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Whoa! That's a site that puts the CMC out earlier? It’s the rgem to 84 then ggem after. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I deleted it because I'm not sure my maps were right (yes, made the classic wrong date 00z mistake), but yes, you can get an early view at the CMC here: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Yeah those weren’t correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 There was a time I salivated when central or southern VA was the target 3-5 days out. But over the last 5 years we’ve seen about a half dozen of these and not seen a flake from any of them. DC got into some on the northern fringe. But places like Winchester, Hagerstown, Frederick… have mostly misses every one. The north trend isn’t what it used to be. ETA: that’s not the same as the the west trend when there is no blocking which is still a real thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 No lie, already seeing some positive changes on the GFS ETA: I'm at 36 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Slower and further west dig of the NS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Southern SW is further east than 18z. Edit: at 42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GFS really looks improved NS more amped, SS not getting as trapped 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: Slower and further west dig of the NS. And the energy in the southwest is a little east. Subtle changes that hopefully don’t ultimately result in little change at the surface like has been the case so many times in the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS really looks improved NS more amped, SS not getting as trapped These aren't really dramatic changes run over run that I'm seeing through 48, a little east-er S/S and south on the N/S dig. We'll really know in the next 3 frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 54 heights are higher in response to the further west dig by the NS. Definitely better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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