OBS-NOWCAST for potential significant 6 hour Thursday morning (1/20/22) commute impact general 1-3" snowfall.

[RU848789]

Not sure I've ever seen this much model disagreement just hours before a fairly minor event starts in a long time.  We could get nada or 5" in the Philly-NYC area...I'll go with 2" at my house, but hope the GFS is right and I get about 3.5".  

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looks good 

How is it going to be 5 inches down south of here where it was even warmer today?

No one anywhere gets more than 3 inches from this storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs solid

No one anywhere is getting 6 inches from this storm....take these snowfall numbers and cut them in half across the board.

 

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No one anywhere is getting 6 inches from this storm....take these snowfall numbers and cut them in half across the board.

 

GFS looks way overdone. Euro is saying this is a 1 inch snowfall. RGEM is just a coating to 1 inch, and NAM really cut back. A lot of evidence tonight that this event is going to be smaller than we had hoped.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS looks way overdone. Euro is saying this is a 1 inch snowfall. RGEM is just a coating to 1 inch, and NAM really cut back. A lot of evidence tonight that this event is going to be smaller than we had hoped.

1-2 sounds like a safe bet, 3 inches for those who are extremely lucky

 

[gravitylover]

36° with light rain

[jaquanweb]

42° with rain 

[Blizzardo]

It was supposed to start as rain... but will temp drop fast enough to change over and get anything is thee question...lol

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

It was supposed to start as rain... but will temp drop fast enough to change over and get anything is thee question...lol

That’s exactly the issue, we aren’t going to get there on evaporational cooling alone. We need colder air to move into the surface. 
its A race 

[dWave]

41 and light rain

[RU848789]

Updated NWS snowfall maps - they're still calling for 1-3", especially near/along 95. If it's not snowing by about 7 am along 95, it could bust on the low side...looks like rain/snow line by radar is from Allentown to Bedminster to Yonkers - anyone?

 

 

 

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Updated NWS snowfall maps - they're still calling for 1-3", especially near/along 95. If it's not snowing by about 7 am along 95, it could bust on the low side...looks like rain/snow line by radar is from Allentown to Bedminster to Yonkers - anyone?

 

 

 

It’s all rain in the Hudson valley. Just did my commute in to Manhattan and the temp ranged from 36-39

[wdrag]

Later start and shorter duration of snow (maybe 4 hours... amounts less, I84 corridor probably less than 1". NYC-PHL probably doesn't start snowing til 830-9A and sticking in the urban streets may be difficult due to temps still only near freezing during the snow.  Will help if there is a burst of moderate snow. I'll give it a 1/2-2" range.

Just changed to flurries here at 605A but temp still 34.5. too warm too long and lots of warmth to flush out toward I95. We probably had our CFP around 445A.

[gravitylover]

Still 35 and rain here but radar shows it's snow so I'm guessing it's getting colder upstairs and will push the warmth out soon. 

[RU848789]

Was worried about a later changeover and less snow - definitely could bust low, although the NWS didn't change their advisories/maps...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
526 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
515 AM...We`ve made some adjustments to the forecast grids as
the colder air is taking a little longer to move in. Somewhat
diffuse cold front currently located over eastern PA and slowly
pushing south/east but most of the region still in the mid 30s
or warmer at this time with rain. Cold advection is underway
though in the boundary layer and still expect a change from rain
to snow from NW to SE over the next several hours as precip
continues to move north and along the front. The change over
from rain to snow should occur by around sunrise from Berks
County extending north and northeast through the Lehigh Valley
into northern NJ and by mid morning (8am-9am timeframe) across
the I-95 corridor. This is about one to three hours later than
previously forecast. Snow will continue for several hours
through the morning centered roughly near the I-95 corridor.
This will not be a big snowstorm and for the most part the rates
should be on the lighter side however there will be the
potential for periods of moderate snow to set up here right
around mid morning as the best forcing associated with the F-Gen
and upper jet dynamics moves through. The precip should then
come to an end NW to SE around the late morning / early
afternoon time frame as colder, drier air continues to advect in
on N/NW winds. It will last a bit longer though over southern
Delmarva and coastal New Jersey but these areas will also take a
bit longer to change from rain to snow. In terms of snowfall
accumulation, generally expect 1-2 inches within the area under
the Winter Weather Advisory. Over the southern Poconos and near
the coast amounts will be a bit lower...generally a coating up
to an inch. The warmest temps of the day will be in the early
morning as temps will fall behind the front. By early afternoon
most areas will be in the 20s to low 30s with temps falling
further through the 20s beyond this time. As N/NW winds increase
to 10-15 mph (with higher gusts) this will make it feel even
colder.

[LoboLeader1]

36* here with a cold rain. 

[gravitylover]

Down to 33 and snow now, started sticking right away even on the wet driveway.

[Tatamy]

Has flipped to snow.  33*

[MJO812]

Nyc should change to snow soon

[LAVistaNY]

Change to snow here in eastern Westchester @ 33°

[Snowlover11]

Rain and 39 in Yonkers.  

[jm1220]

Light rain here. 37

[Volcanic Winter]

39 here on my station with a light drizzle. Was mid 40’s overnight, not sure how the ground will be cold enough for the snow to instantly stick. I think ~1 inch here would be outstanding given this. 
 

We’ll see how quickly it falls below freezing here. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

31° moderate snow, maybe .5 inch new snow on streets and driveway, pleasantly surprised.

[IrishRob17]

34/29 just flipped to light snow. 

[wishcast_hater]

Snowing here from the start. Wet snow too - everything is pasted, looks pretty and stuck right away on top of my existing snowpack. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

To cancel school for a max of 2 inches ( if we even get close to that will be a miracle )  to me is insane as we Just got the call ,,,they cancelled school here. I remember when I was a kid and I would pray that school would get canceled and it rarely was. 

[Rmine1]

Well certainly not what I was expecting to awaken to. 37 and rain.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Well certainly not what I was expecting to awaken to. 37 and rain.

I'm at 37F as well. If it does flip it'll last for less than an hour. 

The least snowy models got it right.

[wxman]

Flipped to snow at 7:30am.  Temp 34.