OBS-NOWCAST for potential significant 6 hour Thursday morning (1/20/22) commute impact general 1-3" snowfall.

[mikem81]

HRRR and RAP both have .3-.4 precip for the area

[Brian5671]

both NAMS are horrid-less than an inch for most

[EastonSN+]

They already delayed schools for tomorrow for this. Sad.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

They already delayed schools for tomorrow for this. Sad.

That makes sense though. It could be slippery tomorrow morning even if only an inch or 2. 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

HRRR and RAP both have .3-.4 precip for the area

The HRRR has backed off on snow for the past few runs. Starting to look minor.

[Rmine1]

Flurries to a dusting, maybe

[nycwinter]

what a horrible winter so far it has been for nyc..

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what a horrible winter so far it has been for nyc..

We are near last years totals to date

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

They already delayed schools for tomorrow for this. Sad.

LOL-this is why early cancellations/delays don't make alot of sense...I know they want people to be able to plan but when roads are just wet all morning lol

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We are near last years totals to date

didn't really get going until Feb last year-this year Feb looks to be warmer at least from this far out.  We've had alot of cold but it's been wasted.....

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

They already delayed schools for tomorrow for this. Sad.

1-2 inches

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Flurries to a dusting, maybe

1-2 inches

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

1-2 inches

don't look at the euro/nam.  1 inch might be a stretch and good luck with anything in the city....

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

don't look at the euro/nam.  1 inch might be a stretch and good luck with anything in the city....

I'm wait and see with the models. They have been awful this winter. 

[nycwinter]

the so called great pattern we were in never materialized..

[winterwx21]

0z RGEM looks terrible. This is rain changing to snow too, so we're dealing with a warm wet ground at the start. Light snow like RGEM is showing isn't gonna cut it. This is really starting to look like a non event. I was hoping some of those earlier NAM and HRRR runs were a good sign, but it appears not. This is looking like maybe an inch on colder surfaces.

[USCG RS]

It's not a bad pattern, we just simply haven't been able to get it to work yet. 

Screaming flow isn't helping, but everything else isn't bad. 

Tons of energy around

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the so called great pattern we were in never materialized..

Well the climate indices were pretty well forecast. But every day, the geopotential height fields and jet stream alignments are different. "Patterns" are loosely defined... and they don't cause snowstorms.

[SRRTA22]

I do miss a good redeveloping clipper @psv88 does seem like its been a long time since we've seen a really good clipper

[HVSnowLover]

It's not looking good and I don't love the setup but the trend this year has been for storms to overperform a bit so we'll see.  

[MJO812]

Gfs solid

[the_other_guy]

Clippers are a more a midwest thing.

Still 47F in Central Park.

Too warm, not enough precip, precip isnt heavy enough

It isnt March, but it might as well be with that combo for urban areas

 

Nice precip band Harrisburg southwest bound…so we wait and see

[winterwx21]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs solid

RGEM more likely to be right than GFS, but you never know for sure. We can hope.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

RGEM more likely to be right than GFS, but you never know for sure. We can hope.

Why is it more likely to be right ?

[winterwx21]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Why is it more likely to be right ?

Are you kidding? RGEM is a more skilled short range model.

[SnowGoose69]

The SPC HREF still shows mean of 2.2 or so near NYC to W LI.  I think the changeover may be faster than the HRRR/NAM show, maybe as early as 10-1030z

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Are you kidding? RGEM is a more skilled short range model.

Rgem has busted alot. Let's see who does best tomorrow. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

the so called great pattern we were in never materialized..

In hindsight this pattern looked good from afar but everything seemed to destructively interfere with one another.

The fast flow never let up and when it did the blocking was insufficient so we had a major cutter. At least we got some snow out of it. 

After the 30th I think we're skunked till Feb 15-20th the earliest but then again we've also had snow in much warmer patterns so who knows. 

I continue to believe Feb 20 - March 15/20 will be our snowiest period. It aligns with the east based Nina & QBO pattern. 

Anyway enjoy the inch you get bc it could be the last one for a while.

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem has busted alot. Let's see who does best tomorrow. 

I've found RGEM to be a very good model, but we'll see. I'm certainly rooting to see more snow tomorrow. Would love to see 3 inches with it accumulating on pavement well, but right now I'm thinking more like 1 inch mostly on colder surfaces. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[MJO812]

Hrrr