OBS-NOWCAST for potential significant 6 hour Thursday morning (1/20/22) commute impact general 1-3" snowfall.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Well, in part because it is technically correct as ANA. But my take on science is try to simplify into language that cost of us understand. There is also lots of met technics that are beyond my clear understanding, that re purportedly better than old school.  Fortunately old school still works. 

So, arctic cold front snow can work...  (myself I likely to reserve arctic for 0F cold in NYC). However, I flex to not lose a persons interest.

Back tonight.

 

Thanks Walt.  Might need to adjust the definition of Arctic fronts since getting to 0 seems to be a once every 2 decade event now.

 

[Northof78]

NAM looks like mostly a I-95 & SE event, but could just be random movement

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Northof78 said:

NAM looks like mostly a I-95 & SE event, but could just be random movement

No WWA yet either. Ill watch that for their buy in

[sussexcountyobs]

47 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

No WWA yet either. Ill watch that for their buy in

Maybe at the 4pm forecast update?

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Walt.  Might need to adjust the definition of Arctic fronts since getting to 0 seems to be a once every 2 decade event now.

 

Arctic refers to the source region of the air mass. The Arctic has warmed quite rapidly over the past few decades, so the magnitude of cold is generally less expansive and less intense that it was then. There remain exceptions, though.

[tmagan]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Arctic refers to the source region of the air mass. The Arctic has warmed quite rapidly over the past few decades, so the magnitude of cold is generally less expansive and less intense that it was then. There remain exceptions, though.

The fact that Central Park has gone nearly seven years with a winter month negative temperature departure of 4 degrees or more is a telling stat.

[MJO812]

Nam 1-3 for the coast

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam 1-3 for the coast

Hard to imagine this coming to fruition.  Gonna be hard to stick. I hope so. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Hard to imagine this coming to fruition.  Gonna be hard to stick. I hope so. 

Temps fall

[MJO812]

WWA for NYC

Up to 2 inches

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

WWA for NYC

Up to 2 inches

kinda feels like new years eve time to celebrate...

[the_other_guy]

It’s way too warm in boroughs. Almost 50F

 

Dont like this set up for concrete jungle.

N and W in the low 40s..a bit better

 

[dmillz25]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It’s way too warm in boroughs. Almost 50F

 

Dont like this set up for concrete jungle.

N and W in the low 40s..a bit better

 

It’s an arctic front temps are gonna drop like a rock today has been the only warm day in about a week? I think the city does fine

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

It’s an arctic front temps are gonna drop like a rock today has been the only warm day in about a week? I think the city does fine

It will come down to rates in the city but what helps is it’s Jan 20 not March 20th 

[the_other_guy]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It will come down to rates in the city but what helps is it’s Jan 20 not March 20th 

This^^

[Lawnguyland]

All I need is an inch to stick in Nassau county and Im gonna make some $!  Hear me now snow gods!

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

WWA for NYC

Up to 2 inches

1-2 inches looks good for the city….NW of the city is probably a coating/dusting to an inch. That’s why my neck of the woods has no advisory

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

1-2 inches looks good for the city….NW of the city is probably a coating/dusting to an inch. That’s why my neck of the woods has no advisory

Gfs looks good 

[Brian5671]

upton has no advisories for northern zones even though they are going with 1-3

[mikem81]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looks good 

10: 1 ?? Use Kuchera..(actually look better..)

[SRRTA22]

This is the first time Ive seen an anafront work out for us in im not sure how long

[gravitylover]

16 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

This is the first time Ive seen an anafront work out for us in im not sure how long

What I want is a string of clippers. When's the last time that happened?

[psv88]

We need a Manitoba Mauler 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said:

This is the first time Ive seen an anafront work out for us in im not sure how long

Few years ago

[mikem81]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Few years ago

How was 18Z EURO?

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

How was 18Z EURO?

Not good

[eduggs]

I was feeling confident on this event last night. Now even this one is slipping away from us. The weak shortwave responsible is dampening, but I feel like you never really know with these until nowcast time.

[mikem81]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not good

For tomorrow?

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

For tomorrow?

Yea less than an inch