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Thursday AM Jan 20 Anafront snow threat.


Sey-Mour Snow
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44 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Let’s see what 18z hrrr does , I’ve noticed the 0z 6z 12z 18z to be more in line with each other while in between runs waffle. 

After the 12z there's not too much guidance that supports more than a 1-2" event. HRRR typically cuts back QPF once you start getting with 18-24 hours...and let's be honest, really isn't a piece of guidance we should put a lot of faith in more than 6hrs out. I'm guessing it probably performs a bit better in an event like this where there's not a bunch of convection and complex dynamics to deal with...but still not holding my breath that it scores a coup. Was hoping to see this ramp up a little more as we closed in...but about out of time. 1-2" is still better than a goose egg though.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM kind of reversed the trend from 12z....a bit juicier in southern areas while cutting back to the north.

These Arctic fronts are a giant pain in the ass. Not only is this a major forecast challenge for up here but pretty much along the entire front stretching down into southern Texas. Models have been wavering back and forth since last Friday about the wintry potential across southern Texas. 18z NAM even looking a little juicer down there for tomorrow night...thankfully they get above-freezing Friday

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

These Arctic fronts are a giant pain in the ass. Not only is this a major forecast challenge for up here but pretty much along the entire front stretching down into southern Texas. Models have been wavering back and forth since last Friday about the wintry potential across southern Texas. 18z NAM even looking a little juicer down there for tomorrow night...thankfully they get above-freezing Friday

I'm sitting this one out. Not worth it.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sitting this one out. Not worth it.

It's really not a big deal for most. I still think there is going to be a strip of 1-3'' (localized 4'' amounts) but it is going to be very narrow and be confined closer to the coast (though not the immediate coast). 

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I feel like in these type of set ups your highest snowfall totals typically occur closer to the coast because this is where there is greater enhancement with one reason being the strong temperature gradient between land/ocean temperature. You throw llvl fronts within this area and you vastly increase llvl convergence and subsequent upward vertical motion within this region. Also, being closer to a water source probably delays the onset of stronger dry air advection which occurs behind the front. 

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39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Final forecast is unchanged . 1-3” up to at least ORH to Will in Hollystown to BOS. 2-4” 90 south with spot 3-5 zone and 6” for a Jack town or two from HFD to GInx area. I’m  thinking 3-4” here to add on to the pack . Looking forward to it . 

39tZhKm.jpg

Should be a nice refresher on top of the frozen tundra. It could stick around until the next one too, hopefully.

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