WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m normally with you on this philosophy…but the problem I see is I’m not sure we even get the small to moderate events the next few weeks. As active as the overall pattern looks, it’s all screwed up either due to spacing or compression. I’m not canceling winter, but I’m not fond of the overall look with regard to meaningful snow chances in our backyards the next ten days. It’s convoluted for sure. And it’s muddy’ed up at the moment. Tonight’s lil potential just kind of came back around. I guess my point is, pattern looks active and we have lots of cold…something can pop out of nowhere at short lead time, or come back from being gone too. Nothing is carved in stone either way with this look. I’ll take this all day over the garbage from December. Id rather think positively at this point with what we have the next few weeks. But I get the angst. I’m just not going that route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I think the problem is its mostly just central CT that is close to climo after we hopefuly get a few inches tomorrow we should be around 20" which is half climo with half the winter to go.. everyone else is way behind .. Sucks for them. Too bad so sad. It's frozen frigging water. They can take a 7 hour ride to Redfield and lay naked in the snow if they need a fix. The best are the people like Grandpa Bob who hate snow but can't stay away hoping a storm will appear. Hypocrisy to the max 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: It’s convoluted for sure. And it’s muddy’ed up at the moment. Tonight’s lil potential just kind of came back around. I guess my point is, pattern looks active and we have lots of cold…something can pop out of nowhere at short lead time, or come back from being gone too. Nothing is carved in stone either way with this look. I’ll take this all day over the garbage from December. Id rather think positively at this point with what we have the next few weeks. But I get the angst. I’m just not going that route. Well below normal January's more often than not lead to above normal snows from the end of Jan to mid March. Time will tell but I guess it's easier to be negative in life no matter the subject for some. Always looking back at missed opportunities never looking forward to future opportunities. Frozen water does weird things to people. I am satiated after Jan Feb 15, said it then still feel it today. Take satisfaction in whatever the weather is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I think the problem is its mostly just central CT that is close to climo after we hopefuly get a few inches tomorrow we should be around 20" which is half climo with half the winter to go.. everyone else is way behind .. Well, I guess we’ve been getting fortunate in this season of nickels and dimes so far. EMA has been getting lucky for a decade until this year. It all evens out. More nickel's and dimes to come it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Perhaps but things pop. Even an overrunning south of the Pike situation can pop. One day at a time. 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s convoluted for sure. And it’s muddy’ed up at the moment. Tonight’s lil potential just kind of came back around. I guess my point is, pattern looks active and we have lots of cold…something can pop out of nowhere at short lead time, or come back from being gone too. Nothing is carved in stone either way with this look. I’ll take this all day over the garbage from December. Id rather think positively at this point with what we have the next few weeks. But I get the angst. I’m just not going that route. Very true. Leaps and bounds better than that disastrous December, outside of the Christmas period thankfully. I have been impressed with the cold. I’m glad we can keep that going through January. That alone is a good thing. If we were flooded by the PAC the shades would be closed. I’m still cautiously optimistic, but I’m about production. Modeled patterns and storms don’t do anything for me. We need results lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m normally with you on this philosophy…but the problem I see is I’m not sure we even get the small to moderate events the next few weeks. As active as the overall pattern looks, it’s all screwed up either due to spacing or compression. I’m not canceling winter, but I’m not fond of the overall look with regard to meaningful snow chances in our backyards the next ten days. Hence when I said the models have been teasing us for a couple weeks now and then not delivering much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: We used to do better with two wheel drive and snow tires. I see tons of expensive all wheel drive cars stuck because they can't be bothered to buy true winter tires. Someone tells them they have all season tires and think they're good. All seasons for the most part are a joke in true winter weather i have never put winter tires on any vehicle that I have owned. never been stuck either. They are a waste of money for experienced (good) drivers not in NNE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i have never put winter tires on any vehicle that I have owned. never been stuck either. They are a waste of money for experienced (good) drivers not in NNE. Hell, I'm in NNE and have never needed them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Hell, I'm in NNE and have never needed them I buy whatever I can get a deal on and have run winters year round before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I've only have run all season tires on any vehicle i've owned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 33 minutes ago, mreaves said: I buy whatever I can get a deal on and have run winters year round before. Ha me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 RAP and HRRR are drying up pretty substantially on post-12z runs. Not a trend you want to see. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RAP and HRRR are drying up pretty substantially on post-12z runs. Not a trend you want to see. @weatherwizis on a tear this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 hours ago, SJonesWX said: i have never put winter tires on any vehicle that I have owned. never been stuck either. They are a waste of money for experienced (good) drivers not in NNE. That's the problem...there are TONS of terrible drivers around. And I will diasgree to a point, some of these new vehicles are supplied with tires that have no business out in a winter storm no matter how good a driver you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RAP and HRRR are drying up pretty substantially on post-12z runs. Not a trend you want to see. At least it’s kind of long range there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I've only have run all season tires on any vehicle i've owned. One year I bought Blizzak snow tires for my Toyota Tacoma, I could go through two feet of snow with those tires with no problem but it costs $500 for 4 so I stick with all season now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I have all-terrain tires on my vehicles in Randolph. Work better in the snow here. Our driveway is pretty murderous. It's flagged in the UPS system as a "dangerous and/or extreme weather condition" so they refuse to drive down it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, JC-CT said: @weatherwizis on a tear this winter Then 16z went wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: That's the problem...there are TONS of terrible drivers around. And I will diasgree to a point, some of these new vehicles are supplied with tires that have no business out in a winter storm no matter how good a driver you are. Yep, even many 4WD SUVs now have thin-sidewall "sport" tires that are more like summer tires than the older all-seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Then 16z went wetter Poor Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Welcome to the official tire thread of Americanwx. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RAP and HRRR are drying up pretty substantially on post-12z runs. Not a trend you want to see. Let’s see what 18z hrrr does , I’ve noticed the 0z 6z 12z 18z to be more in line with each other while in between runs waffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro is like 1-2 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is like 1-2 maybe. I'll take 1-2 and like it, gotta take what we can get this year while we hope and pray for a bomb. CMC doesn't look too bad for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, Southshorewx said: Welcome to the official tire thread of Americanwx. I would think there would be an opening ceremony of sorts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I'll take 1-2 and like it, gotta take what we can get this year while we hope and pray for a bomb. CMC doesn't look too bad for the next 10 days. Agree 100%. Big ones don’t grow on trees. Some of us know this who are a lil older. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Agree 100%. Big ones don’t grow on trees. Some of us know this who are a lil older. Its not necessarily an age thing. I am old enough to have a firm grasp of climo, and this season has been subpar. Down there it has not. Simple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Euro basically held serve from 06z. Might have been a little better for eastern areas and a little worse for western areas. But nothing big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Then 16z went wetter It's just barely starting by the end of the run? But certainly at that point in time, it was worse than 12z, and 17z was as well. But HRRR was the most robust of any guidance at 12z that I saw, so it's not surprising that it trims down. There's plenty of support for the strongest lift to be across the okx zones, ala Wiz's map. Maybe he busts too low in the box zones, we will see. I have a feeling that it could be disappointing north of the CT border...maybe even north of 84 but I'm more hopeful for that. SE of BOS/Prov should do fine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: That's the problem...there are TONS of terrible drivers around. And I will diasgree to a point, some of these new vehicles are supplied with tires that have no business out in a winter storm no matter how good a driver you are. I have had AWD, 2wd and 4x4. I’ve never used snow tires. No one in my family has ever used snow tires. I can say (know on wood) have never been stuck and have driven through blizzard/ heavy snow etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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