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Thursday AM Jan 20 Anafront snow threat.


Sey-Mour Snow
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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m normally with you on this philosophy…but the problem I see is I’m not sure we even get the small to moderate events the next few weeks. As active as the overall pattern looks, it’s all screwed up either due to spacing or compression.

I’m not canceling winter, but I’m not fond of the overall look with regard to meaningful snow chances in our backyards the next ten days.

It’s convoluted for sure.  And it’s muddy’ed up at the moment. Tonight’s lil potential just kind of came back around. I guess my point is, pattern looks active and we have lots of cold…something can pop out of nowhere at short lead time, or come back from being gone too.  Nothing is carved in stone either way with this look. I’ll take this all day over the garbage from December. 
 

Id rather think positively at this point with what we have the next few weeks. But I get the angst. I’m just not going that route. 

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think the problem is its mostly just central CT that is close to climo after we hopefuly get a few inches tomorrow we should be around 20" which is half climo with half the winter to go..  everyone else is way behind .. 

Sucks for them. Too bad so sad. It's frozen frigging water. They can take a 7 hour ride to Redfield and lay naked in the snow if they need a fix. The best are the people like  Grandpa Bob who hate snow but can't stay away hoping a storm will appear. Hypocrisy to the max

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s convoluted for sure.  And it’s muddy’ed up at the moment. Tonight’s lil potential just kind of came back around. I guess my point is, pattern looks active and we have lots of cold…something can pop out of nowhere at short lead time, or come back from being gone too.  Nothing is carved in stone either way with this look. I’ll take this all day over the garbage from December. 
 

Id rather think positively at this point with what we have the next few weeks. But I get the angst. I’m just not going that route. 

Well below normal January's more often than not lead to above normal snows from the end of Jan to mid March. Time will tell but I guess it's easier to be negative in life no matter the subject for some. Always looking back at missed opportunities never looking forward to future opportunities.  Frozen water does weird things to people. I am satiated after Jan Feb 15, said it then still feel it today.  Take satisfaction in whatever the weather is.

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think the problem is its mostly just central CT that is close to climo after we hopefuly get a few inches tomorrow we should be around 20" which is half climo with half the winter to go..  everyone else is way behind .. 

Well, I guess we’ve been getting fortunate in this season of nickels and dimes so far. EMA has been getting lucky for a decade until this year. It all evens out. More nickel's and dimes to come it seems. 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Perhaps but things pop. Even an overrunning south of the Pike situation can pop. One day at a time. 

 

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s convoluted for sure.  And it’s muddy’ed up at the moment. Tonight’s lil potential just kind of came back around. I guess my point is, pattern looks active and we have lots of cold…something can pop out of nowhere at short lead time, or come back from being gone too.  Nothing is carved in stone either way with this look. I’ll take this all day over the garbage from December. 
 

Id rather think positively at this point with what we have the next few weeks. But I get the angst. I’m just not going that route. 

Very true. Leaps and bounds better than that disastrous December, outside of the Christmas period thankfully.

I have been impressed with the cold. I’m glad we can keep that going through January. That alone is a good thing. If we were flooded by the PAC the shades would be closed. 

I’m still cautiously optimistic, but I’m about production. Modeled patterns and storms don’t do anything for me. We need results lol. 

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29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m normally with you on this philosophy…but the problem I see is I’m not sure we even get the small to moderate events the next few weeks. As active as the overall pattern looks, it’s all screwed up either due to spacing or compression.

I’m not canceling winter, but I’m not fond of the overall look with regard to meaningful snow chances in our backyards the next ten days.

Hence when I said the models have been teasing us for a couple weeks now and then not delivering much 

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

We used to do better with two wheel drive and snow tires. I see tons of expensive all wheel drive cars stuck because they can't be bothered to buy true winter tires. Someone tells them they have all season tires and think they're good. All seasons for the most part are a joke in true winter weather

i have never put winter tires on any vehicle that I have owned. never been stuck either. They are a waste of money for experienced (good) drivers not in NNE.

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2 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

i have never put winter tires on any vehicle that I have owned. never been stuck either. They are a waste of money for experienced (good) drivers not in NNE.

That's the problem...there are TONS of terrible drivers around. And I will diasgree to a point, some of these new vehicles are supplied with tires that have no business out in a winter storm no matter how good a driver you are.

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4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

That's the problem...there are TONS of terrible drivers around. And I will diasgree to a point, some of these new vehicles are supplied with tires that have no business out in a winter storm no matter how good a driver you are.

Yep, even many 4WD SUVs now have thin-sidewall "sport" tires that are more like summer tires than the older all-seasons.

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56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Then 16z went wetter

It's just barely starting by the end of the run? But certainly at that point in time, it was worse than 12z, and 17z was as well. But HRRR was the most robust of any guidance at 12z that I saw, so it's not surprising that it trims down. There's plenty of support for the strongest lift to be across the okx zones, ala Wiz's map. Maybe he busts too low in the box zones, we will see. I have a feeling that it could be disappointing north of the CT border...maybe even north of 84 but I'm more hopeful for that. SE of BOS/Prov should do fine as well.

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

That's the problem...there are TONS of terrible drivers around. And I will diasgree to a point, some of these new vehicles are supplied with tires that have no business out in a winter storm no matter how good a driver you are.

I have had AWD, 2wd and 4x4. I’ve never used snow tires. No one in my family has ever used snow tires. I can say (know on wood) have never been stuck and have driven through blizzard/ heavy snow etc. 

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