Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 NAM and 3km have definitely shifted well south with the goods, after the nice 12z and 18z runs, however it seems to spread the 1-2" accumulations farther north.. HRRR seems to be on amped island by itself.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 3 Mets 3 opinions. Just need Debbie Downer Ryan for the perfecta It had one wave of precip and then shunted SE. I don’t like seeing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 3 Mets 3 opinions. Just need Debbie Downer Ryan for the perfecta Ya man, some of these folks just have no appreciation for anything but 12-18”ers. 2-4” is a nice lil event. Keep adding it up. Would be nice to get one real biggy, but if not, bring the small and moderate events often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: NAM and 3km have definitely shifted well south with the goods, after the nice 12z and 18z runs, however it seems to spread the 1-2" accumulations farther north.. HRRR seems to be on amped island by itself.. it was right 10 days ago when we were forecast for 3”, and we got 9” plus. So maybe it sees something again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It had one wave of precip and then shunted SE. I don’t like seeing that. 1-2 inch event. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The little bit of ice two weeks ago shut down roads. We laugh at the south but we’re no better. We used to do better with two wheel drive and snow tires. I see tons of expensive all wheel drive cars stuck because they can't be bothered to buy true winter tires. Someone tells them they have all season tires and think they're good. All seasons for the most part are a joke in true winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It had one wave of precip and then shunted SE. I don’t like seeing that. Wait a model cycle, NAM maybe good at mids but omega and surface not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 One thing to really watch too is some of the 6z bufkit soundings actually indicated a very brief period where there's actually some pretty decent lift getting into the DGZ. Despite the initially warmer temperatures, we cool off substantially rather quickly (especially above the sfc). Ratios could really help out with pushing towards the higher spectrum of 3-4''. If precip can hang up a bit someone towards the coast (but inland from the immediate shoreline) may be able to snag 4'' for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3K sort of does the same too. We’ll see, but that’s not something I like to see as we get closer to the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: it was right 10 days ago when we were forecast for 3”, and we got 9” plus. So maybe it sees something again? I'm definitely not throwing it out, maybe weight it 50% and the rest of the hi-res 50%. Sucks the nams were a widespread 4-7" yesterday.. they are pretty dry now.. 1-3" iso 4 for SE two thirds of CT may be the way to go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 1-2 inch event. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 Seems that way. These are always sneaky I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 3K sort of does the same too. We’ll see, but that’s not something I like to see as we get closer to the event. It's definitely concerning 3km is like 3 hours of snow compared to the 8 hours we were looking at yesterday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: I'm definitely not throwing it out, maybe weight it 50% and the rest of the hi-res 50%. Sucks the nams were a widespread 4-7" yesterday.. they are pretty dry now.. 1-3" iso 4 for SE two thirds of CT may be the way to go here. Pretty easy one to me. 2-4” statewide with a 3-5 zone somewhere narrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Man you are an expert and polishing a turd. This winter has been pretty lame and looks even worse going forward. Agree, it's been an awful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I'll tell you, I've seen this before. Up here I'll be really surprised to see any more than an inch...if that. Unless we see a push north I'm not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 All the 12z mesos got a lot drier....FV3 too. The one exception might be the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty easy one to me. 2-4” statewide with a 3-5 zone somewhere narrow still very possible but so is a coating to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: All the 12z mesos got a lot drier....FV3 too. The one exception might be the HRRR. ya no goodski, the 3 run trend on the mesos besides hrrr is cut back 25% each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Are the ingredients and factors this time similar to that? No, I was just meaning the model did well that time with jumping on the higher totals from that system. Maybe it’s right seeing a lil more this time too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: still very possible but so is a coating to 1" Every thing goes north this afternoon with that great baroclinic zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Agree, it's been an awful winter. For some 20 inches here and a well below Jan. Sorry you missed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every thing goes north this afternoon with that great baroclinic zone South of PIKE special. Perfect expect more oh me oh my posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya man, some of these folks just have no appreciation for anything but 12-18”ers. 2-4” is a nice lil event. Keep adding it up. Would be nice to get one real biggy, but if not, bring the small and moderate events often. I’m normally with you on this philosophy…but the problem I see is I’m not sure we even get the small to moderate events the next few weeks. As active as the overall pattern looks, it’s all screwed up either due to spacing or compression. I’m not canceling winter, but I’m not fond of the overall look with regard to meaningful snow chances in our backyards the next ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ROFL!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1-2 inch event. Maybe someone gets lucky with 3 Said C-2" in text to TB and Butterfish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: For some 20 inches here and a well below Jan. Sorry you missed out. Ya, I’m at ahout 15” for the season. If I can pick up a few here overnight..I’ll gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: South of PIKE special. Perfect expect more oh me oh my posts These weak waves are probably the best example of not using qpf to make a forecast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ya, I’m at ahout 15” for the season. If I can pick up a few here overnight..I’ll gladly take. I think the problem is its mostly just central CT that is close to climo after we hopefuly get a few inches tomorrow we should be around 20" which is half climo with half the winter to go.. everyone else is way behind .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m normally with you on this philosophy…but the problem I see is I’m not sure we even get the small to moderate events the next few weeks. As active as the overall pattern looks, it’s all screwed up either due to spacing or compression. I’m not canceling winter, but I’m not fond of the overall look with regard to meaningful snow chances in our backyards the next ten days. Perhaps but things pop. Even an overrunning south of the Pike situation can pop. One day at a time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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