78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: SPC has marginal risks down there. NAM is by far more robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely. Didn't the NAM zero in on the strength of the Jan 7 event before the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 SPC has marginal risks down there. NAM is by far the most robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely.Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not sure why most of my post got cutoff…here’s the full text…Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian to think it misses completely. I could see the NAM being a bit too juiced and it turning into a 1-2” type deal south of 84 vs a 2-4” regionwide event. And given that the Euro is on its own for this and the weekend event makes me think it’s clueless at the moment. I think 1-3” from pike south is a good first call. Anything to whiten the ground before the weekend arctic blast is fine by me! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 RGEM went SE vs 12z....still has it, but it's a bit lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM went SE vs 12z....still has it, but it's a bit lighter. ggem pretty much held serve, a little lighter too but really not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: ggem pretty much held serve, a little lighter too but really not much. Loafers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Not sure why most of my post got cutoff…here’s the full text… Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian to think it misses completely. I could see the NAM being a bit too juiced and it turning into a 1-2” type deal south of 84 vs a 2-4” regionwide event. And given that the Euro is on its own for this and the weekend event makes me think it’s clueless at the moment. I think 1-3” from pike south is a good first call. Anything to whiten the ground before the weekend arctic blast is fine by me! I agree though will up you and go 2-4” south of 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Loafers? whaaaat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: whaaaat? Light in the.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Light in the.. had to google that one. learn something new every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: had to google that one. learn something new every day. How old are you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: How old are you? Are you seriously asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Sign me up for these 2 to 4 every couple of days events with sub zero Deep Arctic cold. Absolutely love these deep winter days with drifting fluff from yesterday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: Are you seriously asking Yea just was curious. That saying is from my Dad's generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea just was curious. That saying is from my Dad's generation. Well I'm guessing I'm younger than him. 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Aside from the mesos, the GFS has been very stubborn about this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: Well I'm guessing I'm younger than him. 35 He would have been 105 this year. Lol Most of my kids are older than you. Wind ripped on this hill today in your town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Aside from the mesos, the GFS has been very stubborn about this one too. Don't understand why people are calling it anafrontal. Sure a front passes but it's actually a wave developing on the southern extent which is pretty typically how LP develops. Many claim their hate for small events here but in normal winters they make up to 2/3rds of the accumulation days. The 12 inch events in fact are rare. Young people here are pretty used to the big event and disappointed when it doesn't occur but fact is most don't work out. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't understand why people are calling it anafrontal. Sure a front passes but it's actually a wave developing on the southern extent which is pretty typically how LP develops. Many claim their hate for small events here but in normal winters they make up to 2/3rds of the accumulation days. The 12 inch events in fact are rare. Young people here are pretty used to the big event and disappointed when it doesn't occur but fact is most don't work out. some people are even calling it analfrontal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: some people are even calling it analfrontal Taint that. ( don't Google taint) lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Taint that. ( don't Google taint) lol btw, it still does look like an anafront to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Does anybody feel like we are being teased by the models, like one might normally tease a bear? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: Does anybody feel like we are being teased by the models, like one might normally tease a bear? what the frick do you do on weekends bud 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: btw, it still does look like an anafront to me? It’s starting to develop a wave. These things aren’t purely binary. Either way, looks like GFS held serve. Would like to see some bumps N at 00z from the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Does anybody feel like we are being teased by the models, like one might normally tease a bear? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s starting to develop a wave. These things aren’t purely binary. Either way, looks like GFS held serve. Would like to see some bumps N at 00z from the rest of guidance. isn't cyclogenesis along an anafront pretty typical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Poor Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GEFS got really dry too, hmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 33 minutes ago, JC-CT said: what the frick do you do on weekends bud Preposterous you would think I smoke something cuz I think the models tease us, like one might normally tease a bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Preposterous you would think I smoke something cuz I think the models tease us, like one might normally tease a bear. I was suggesting you spend your weekends teasing bears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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