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Thursday AM Jan 20 Anafront snow threat.


Sey-Mour Snow
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  On 1/18/2022 at 3:10 PM, JC-CT said:

yeah, but just as you said, juice/track aside it's still a quick hitter. But weirder things have happened, if you get some meso stuff happening along the front?

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looks like there may be a little meso-low that pops along the front...that would help with keeping precip going a little longer. These things are always super challenging. Once out of every like 20 setups you get an overproducer.

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  On 1/18/2022 at 3:14 PM, weatherwiz said:

looks like there may be a little meso-low that pops along the front...that would help with keeping precip going a little longer. These things are always super challenging. Once out of every like 20 setups you get an overproducer.

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What do you think about a lot of the lift seeming to be below the snow growth zone?

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  On 1/18/2022 at 3:17 PM, JC-CT said:

What do you think about a lot of the lift seeming to be below the snow growth zone?

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That's where I get a little fuzzy on, but I believe in these type of setups that doesn't necessarily matter much. If the llvls are sufficiently cold and you're relying more on llvl dynamics than mid-levels you can still get heavier precipitation rates and decent snow growth. It's an instance where the majority of the focus is within the llvls. 

Sort of like with low-topped convection...you're really utilizing the llvl of the atmosphere and not very worried about mid/upper levels. 

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  On 1/18/2022 at 3:28 PM, weatherwiz said:

That's where I get a little fuzzy on, but I believe in these type of setups that doesn't necessarily matter much. If the llvls are sufficiently cold and you're relying more on llvl dynamics than mid-levels you can still get heavier precipitation rates and decent snow growth. It's an instance where the majority of the focus is within the llvls. 

Sort of like with low-topped convection...you're really utilizing the llvl of the atmosphere and not very worried about mid/upper levels. 

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Cool, thx

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  On 1/18/2022 at 8:31 PM, JC-CT said:

Is it expected to produce severe weather down south? The line looks kinda nasty on sim radar.

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SPC has marginal risks down there.

 

NAM is by far the most robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely.

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