weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: yeah, but just as you said, juice/track aside it's still a quick hitter. But weirder things have happened, if you get some meso stuff happening along the front? looks like there may be a little meso-low that pops along the front...that would help with keeping precip going a little longer. These things are always super challenging. Once out of every like 20 setups you get an overproducer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: looks like there may be a little meso-low that pops along the front...that would help with keeping precip going a little longer. These things are always super challenging. Once out of every like 20 setups you get an overproducer. What do you think about a lot of the lift seeming to be below the snow growth zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: What do you think about a lot of the lift seeming to be below the snow growth zone? That's where I get a little fuzzy on, but I believe in these type of setups that doesn't necessarily matter much. If the llvls are sufficiently cold and you're relying more on llvl dynamics than mid-levels you can still get heavier precipitation rates and decent snow growth. It's an instance where the majority of the focus is within the llvls. Sort of like with low-topped convection...you're really utilizing the llvl of the atmosphere and not very worried about mid/upper levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: That's where I get a little fuzzy on, but I believe in these type of setups that doesn't necessarily matter much. If the llvls are sufficiently cold and you're relying more on llvl dynamics than mid-levels you can still get heavier precipitation rates and decent snow growth. It's an instance where the majority of the focus is within the llvls. Sort of like with low-topped convection...you're really utilizing the llvl of the atmosphere and not very worried about mid/upper levels. Cool, thx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 There's a nice push of omega on the 12z NAM. If right, there could be a brief period of moderate to heavy snow under that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Focus on this and not the weekend. You’ll miss the forest thru the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Focus on this and not the weekend. You’ll miss the forest thru the trees k. gfs cut back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: k. gfs cut back Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ukie has nada. Actually trended worse from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nah Yah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Missing Thursday and Saturday would be chefs kiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Missing Thursday and Saturday would be chefs kiss you already said you don't care about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro still says NO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12z run looks identical to 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Euro still says NO Yeah this one's on life support right now. Maybe not for the immediate south coast but for the rest of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 There's a good stripe of RH over SE areas, so maybe they see some light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Euro still says NO Maybe we need a Sean Connery emoji for the board? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18z NAM just double downed and came in more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z NAM just double downed and came in more amplified. It’s defying the old DR NO! Even the lowly NAM thinks it can crush the Euro. You Go lil buddy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z NAM just double downed and came in more amplified. yeah, what the hell lol. I guess it is still kind of a ways out for the NAM. But a little surprise here would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z NAM just double downed and came in more amplified. Yeah seriously...that's a solid advisory event for a good chunk of SNE. Mostly on its own though....hopefully a few more models catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah seriously...that's a solid advisory event for a good chunk of SNE. Mostly on its own though....hopefully a few more models catch on. 18z hrrr was like 2+ south of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3km is on board now too, that's a nice little snowfall if it's not virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 18z hrrr was like 2+ south of 84 3km coming in quite a bit more juiced too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah seriously...that's a solid advisory event for a good chunk of SNE. Mostly on its own though....hopefully a few more models catch on. Some can hang their hopes on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Some can hang themselves on it. yes we can! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I guess the one thing going for this is that the mesos will likely be the ones that catch this first...that's exactly what happened in other similar events in Jan 2013 and Feb 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I guess the one thing going for this is that the mesos will likely be the ones that catch this first...that's exactly what happened in other similar events in Jan 2013 and Feb 2016. Is it expected to produce severe weather down south? The line looks kinda nasty on sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Is it expected to produce severe weather down south? The line looks kinda nasty on sim radar. SPC has marginal risks down there. NAM is by far the most robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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