Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Guidance converging on a 1-3 maybe 2-4" type deal Thursday AM for southern areas of SNE. Timing looks like 1-11am from west to east. However, surface temps look borderline to start, with temperatures 35-40 late Wednesday evening, this is likely to be a wet snow at first before temps really drop. Let's see how things trend today, 6z Euro finally getting on board for something light, while GFS and NAM are the most aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'd like to have an inch or two before the cold blast gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Guidance converging on a 1-3 maybe 2-4" type deal Thursday AM for southern areas of SNE. Timing looks like 1-11am from west to east. However, surface temps look borderline to start, with temperatures 35-40 late Wednesday evening, this is likely to be a wet snow at first before temps really drop. Let's see how things trend today, 6z Euro finally getting on board for something light, while GFS and NAM are the most aggressive. Sometimes these keep bumping up amounts as you get closer in and increase baroclinic zone. These are fun events to track 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I think it was mentioned somewhere else, but this “event” could have a negative impact on the bigger ticket Saturday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Is this the analfront thread? Asking for a friend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think it was mentioned somewhere else, but this “event” could have a negative impact on the bigger ticket Saturday event. I think Will mentioned that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'm not entirely sure we see much accumulation from this but there continues to be a pretty good signal for a narrow zone of enhanced convergence right along the front. Some different signals though how quickly the system moves through. Could have best enhancement along the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 HRRR is in for a few inches as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM looks amped at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM def coming in more amped. I'd want to see Euro get on board though before actually taking it seriously. The more amped this one is, the less likely 1/22 is IMHO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM looks amped at 42 maybe we can turn this into a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 It's a definite improvement on the 3km, which was essentially a whiff at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 PIN THIS BABY (and change title to "Ray Enjoys a Bubble Bath with his Toaster") 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Fv3 is amped up too...srefs leading the way? Euro out to lunch? All this and more, coming up later in our show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This may be the big dog after all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This may be the big dog after all define "big dog" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM def coming in more amped. I'd want to see Euro get on board though before actually taking it seriously. The more amped this one is, the less likely 1/22 is IMHO. I disagree and so does the Nam which is clearly shifting to the Euro by 78-84hrs. Plenty of higher heights offshore to keep the 22nd in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM def coming in more amped. I'd want to see Euro get on board though before actually taking it seriously. The more amped this one is, the less likely 1/22 is IMHO. Hope everyone enjoys their 1-3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hope everyone enjoys their 1-3 Hope you enjoy a delicious lunch of 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I disagree and so does the Nam which is clearly shifting to the Euro by 78-84hrs. Plenty of higher heights offshore to keep the 22nd in play. It is not the only factor....we can definitely get both events, but all else equal, we'd rather not have this one. There are other factors this run that are helping out 1/22 that are independent of the frontal wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Fv3 is amped up too...srefs leading the way? Euro out to lunch? All this and more, coming up later in our show. Winter AmWx in a nutshell. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 All the mesos are bumping north this cycle - rgem too. But Icon appears to be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Hope you enjoy a delicious lunch of We do have a nice hot dog joint in town. https://tex-barrys-coney-island.business.site/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Actually...I could envision a 2-4'' deal from southern CT through RI and into SE MA tomorrow night. That's some pretty impressive llvl lift along a narrow corridor. Ratios may start a little poopy but should improve relatively quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, JC-CT said: define "big dog" The big dig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Actually...I could envision a 2-4'' deal from southern CT through RI and into SE MA tomorrow night. That's some pretty impressive llvl lift along a narrow corridor. Ratios may start a little poopy but should improve relatively quickly. This will get snow north of I-90 with these bumps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Actually...I could envision a 2-4'' deal from southern CT through RI and into SE MA tomorrow night. That's some pretty impressive llvl lift along a narrow corridor. Ratios may start a little poopy but should improve relatively quickly. If everything goes right, yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This will get snow north of I-90 with these bumps We'll see widespread light snow over a large area but the best chance for any accumulations IMO is going to be within a very tight and narrow corridor where llvl convergence is maximized. Just now, JC-CT said: If everything goes right, yeah seems to be heading in that direction. And for the front as a whole...even moving across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's this is looking a bit juicer for them. Often times it's a race between dry air and precip cutting off but there's a quite a bit of moisture on the backside of this front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: We'll see widespread light snow over a large area but the best chance for any accumulations IMO is going to be within a very tight and narrow corridor where llvl convergence is maximized. seems to be heading in that direction. And for the front as a whole...even moving across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley's this is looking a bit juicer for them. Often times it's a race between dry air and precip cutting off but there's a quite a bit of moisture on the backside of this front. yeah, but just as you said, juice/track aside it's still a quick hitter. But weirder things have happened, if you get some meso stuff happening along the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 44 minutes ago, JC-CT said: PIN THIS BABY (and change title to "Ray Enjoys a Bubble Bath with his Toaster") I don't give a rat's ass about missing 2" of snow, but if it ruins Saturday, I may need to check out for awhile for mental heath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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