HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS/NAM/CMC now all have at least some rain/snow for the region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Might want to edit the title, as funny as it is... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Might want to edit the title, as funny as it is... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Too much information 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I liked the original title better tbh. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro still not really showing anything for this which actually worries me a bit because if it's wrong about this I wonder if it may be wrong about the follow up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro still not really showing anything for this which actually worries me a bit because if it's wrong about this I wonder if it may be wrong about the follow up storm. I think it's more likely that this doesn't happen rather than the follow up storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Rgem looks better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 From the headline change from last night can we now assume any threat of an analfront for Thursday is now behind us? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 no still a real good shot at 1-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro still not really showing anything for this which actually worries me a bit because if it's wrong about this I wonder if it may be wrong about the follow up storm. I am interested to see if the EURO solution verifies Thursday - might give some hints as we get closer whether it is accurate with its weekend snowstorm........and vice versa with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 hours ago, Nibor said: Always liked the MJ laugh gif...is that Michael Caine from Children of Men in your avatar? Great film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6Z models showing a 1-3" potential, except for the Euro, which is still <1". NWS-Philly discussion on this event is below. As we go through the Wednesday night into Thursday period, the aformentioned low will continue tracking eastward as it moves into Atlantic Canada and this will drag a cold front through the region from north to south. At the same time, there will be some upper level energy rounding the base of the long wave trough over the east and another system moving northward from the south along the frontal boundary. The upshot of all this is a period of rain will develop by the overnight period Wednesday night but as the colder air moves in behind the front expect this to change over to snow from north to south. This changeover should occur during the overnight hours Wednesday night N/W of the I-95 corridor and by around sunrise across the urban corridor. The snow may continue for a few hours into Thursday before ending as colder, drier air continues to move in on N/NW winds. The total precipitation with this system could be on the order of a quarter to half inch of QPF but expect that a lot of this will occur before the changeover from rain to snow. Experience has shown that often in these cold advection type situations that by the time the colder air moves, heavier precip is just about getting ready to exit. The NAM is a bit more robust with heavier precip back into the colder air but given the setup think this may be overdone. The upshot is that at this time I expect snow amounts to mostly be just a light coating to under an inch. But again, challenging forecast and if this system is a little more robust as indicated by the NAM there could be areas that see a couple inches of snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12Z NAM... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: I am interested to see if the EURO solution verifies Thursday - might give some hints as we get closer whether it is accurate with its weekend snowstorm........and vice versa with the GFS. Yea one storm may or may not have anything to do with the other but will be interesting to see how these both play out in terms of model verification since it's sort of Euro vs all right now for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I think this will be the bigger storm over the next week, looks like a nice 2 - 4" for most...other looks offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Northof78 said: I think this will be the bigger storm over the next week, looks like a nice 2 - 4" for most...other looks offshore That is very possible. There is actually a lot of support from the 12z mesos for the amounts you noted. With all the focus on the Friday night system and whether or not it goes OTS or not I will take what we can get from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 amazing how this thread has so little posts while everyone chases some fantasy foot plus storm why wouldnt we be happy with a nice 2-3 that will stay around 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 18z NAM pretty juicy with this, has a swath of 3-5 inches a just NW of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 If you live near NYC or LI you ultimately want this to amp a bit more...you want to get some rain or see a period of rain on guidance because in order to really have any shot at notable snow this needs to be far enough NW you start off as liquid for awhile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, winterwarlock said: amazing how this thread has so little posts while everyone chases some fantasy foot plus storm why wouldnt we be happy with a nice 2-3 that will stay around If ya don't win big did ya really win? I appreciate the extremes as much (or more so) as the next guy but nickel and dime winters where we get a few inches at a time a few times a week end up with a more wintry appeal and a longer lasting snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This looks like a very nice setup for I-95 and most here...3-5" certainly possible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: 18z NAM pretty juicy with this, has a swath of 3-5 inches a just NW of I95. Be real careful with the NAM, I posted in the other thread, but it’s the most aggressive with this event out of all the models and it’s probably way overamped again. It was God awful with this last storm even the day of….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Be real careful with the NAM, I posted in the other thread, but it’s the most aggressive with this event out of all the models and it’s probably way overamped again. It was God awful with this last storm even the day of….. HRRR looks similar to NAM. I know HRRR is more useful very close to events rather than longer range, but the 18z run gives most of the area a solid 3 inches. Hopefully it's onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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