StormyClearweather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I mean, it's probably wrong, but it matches the HRRR pretty well for whatever that's worth. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 3k is nice 2-3 for everyone north of CHO. It’s all gonna depend on that dry slot on the lee side of the mountains for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s all gonna depend on that dry slot on the lee side of the mountains for us. Yeah. Not usually the best setup for us. But it is getting juicier each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I mean, it's probably wrong, but it matches the HRRR pretty well for whatever that's worth. Maybe it's wrong, but hell, I'd take it if it were correct!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, rjvanals said: I approve of the NAM It works. Just gotta accept rain to start. Temps do look like they’ll crash though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Was reading somewhere that the column is cold. That the ground temps are the only issue. If true, that would probably mean a quick transition to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I’ll take half of what the NAM is showing and call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Clueless said: I’ll take half of what the NAM is showing and call it a win. Especially with this kind of anafront/cold chasing moisture sort of setup we got here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I approve this message. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The Kuchera ratios seem a bit generous for an event with marginal temps through a decent depth above the surface. For now, I like a blend of the 10:1 maps with the positive snow depth change; a 1-3 along and northwest of I-95 and 2-4 well north and northwest might work well. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Someone's gonna find themselves under a short, small streak of heavy snow towards the end of the event when the column is colder and the ratios are better, and they will be the one who gets out with the 3+ inches imo. For those of us who only get the heavier stuff near the changeover, it'll be a somewhat sloppy inch or so and then a light powdery layer on top. At least that's how I think it will go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Is this going to be WWA worthy, given the timing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 When are warnings coming out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: When are warnings coming out Brine watch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Brine watch Can’t brine. It’s starting as rain. And yes, Rush Hour Criteria WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 ICON is better for this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 26F Since Jan 2 we’ve had something to follow and three hits . Maybe the same 5-6 winters in last 20 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 hours ago, high risk said: The Kuchera ratios seem a bit generous for an event with marginal temps through a decent depth above the surface. For now, I like a blend of the 10:1 maps with the positive snow depth change; a 1-3 along and northwest of I-95 and 2-4 well north and northwest might work well. I think this is a very solid forecast. Topography and proxy in lat will be a big part of the max potential for this kind of setup. I mentioned earlier I really like the M/D folks with someone like @psuhoffmanbeing in a phenomenal spot for this setup. 850-700mb frontogen is actually solid for wee hrs of Thursday through about 15z. There could be a nice surprise heavy snow for parts of the region. I do like 1-3 south of I-70 at max potential. 2-4 with a max of 5” for north of I-70 with best chances over the northern tier of MD. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I think this is a very solid forecast. Topography and proxy in lat will be a big part of the max potential for this kind of setup. I mentioned earlier I really like the M/D folks with someone like @psuhoffmanbeing in a phenomenal spot for this setup. 850-700mb frontogen is actually solid for wee hrs of Thursday through about 15z. There could be a nice surprise heavy snow for parts of the region. I do like 1-3 south of I-70 at max potential. 2-4 with a max of 5” for north of I-70 with best chances over the northern tier of MD. I'm sitting at 900' on Parrs Ridge 7 miles north of 70. I've been waiting for my chance to use my new special power lol. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 3:04 PM, Bob Chill said: This is where mistakes are made. When Ma sends you snow and you aren't genuinely grateful for it, she remembers it and you will pay for it. As soon as I accepted that and put it in practice, the MoCo deathband was reborn. I kid you not. Just ask @WxUSAF. He knows. He did the same thing and the connection was made setting up the HoCo-MoCo deathband. Everyone in Dale City needs to take heed of this message. Once we do, the HoCo/MoCo/Prince William Deathband is born. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 lol I certainly would take what the 06z GFS is smoking... 2-4" for i95 corridor from EZF to BWI on both Kuchera and 10:1 snow maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The long-range HRRR was better than a lot of models for MBY 36 hours before the last event. Splashes most of the sub with 2-4" A couple nice lollipops in there too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 the front def has juiced up as we get closer to game time Total precip per the NAM at 1pm tomorrow - assume that some starts as rain before any flip to snow 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, mappy said: the front def has juiced up as we get closer to game time Total precip per the NAM at 1pm tomorrow - assume that some starts as rain before any flip to snow GFS even juicer for the 95 corridor, same time frame 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 LWX map…I like the 1” call for MBY, which would get me to climo for the year…pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, mappy said: GFS even juicer for the 95 corridor, same time frame MG you think you could get that little “v” to fill in a tad? Work on that today, will ya? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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