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Thursday 1/20/22 Stat Padder Discussion and Observations


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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

1-2" during rush hour is actually looking formidable at this point. Love areas north of I-70 for this one with a secondary max over NoVA into Central MD when a weak wave ridges up the boundary after 12z. 

You see this as 6” for Winchester, right?

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13 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Local mets here in central VA agree with the guidance. My biggest remaining question is how much damage the rain does to our glacier.

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love the CBS19 guys on Twitter - great to interact with, but this map sorta sucks.

The less than <1" running right up next to the 4"+ is a choice, lol. Realize the 4"+ is kinda out of the viewing area but still

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9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

love the CBS19 guys on Twitter - great to interact with, but this map sorta sucks.

The less than <1" running right up next to the 4"+ is a choice, lol. Realize the 4"+ is kinda out of the viewing area but still

That part is very reasonable. That dividing line is the eastern edge of the Allegheny front. It drops of fast there

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

It's Ian's famous corn fumes. 

The correct term is corn dust and I*n and I started talking about it over 10 years ago.  It was perfectly represented on the 2nd event with a perfect circle of no snow around DC Beltway  that took 2-3 hours to fill in while snowing in every other direction 

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5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Are we thinking this is white rain type snow, or stick to the roads type snow?    Because it’s arriving right around the morning rush/school openings.  

somewhere in between will be my guess. Places that are cold enough as precip moves in should have no issue with sticking. places further south, it could be 33/34 and snow, not white rain, no road issues. 

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM definitely looks better this run. Very similar to the HRRR. 

For the NW crew this might actually end up being a better event for us than the weekend deal.

not giving up hope  on the weekend but not looking to good for us further west and north at the moment.

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Just now, mappy said:

somewhere in between will be my guess. Places that are cold enough as precip moves in should have no issue with sticking. places further south, it could be 33/34 and snow, not white rain, no road issues. 

Thx.  I’ll enjoy whatever falls but just thinking of school planning. Doesn’t take much to cause a panic down here.  

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Areas north of I-70 might do pretty well with this setup. The M/D folks might sneak away with a solid advisory level snowfall. Wouldn't be surprised with a 4-5" jack from a line of northern Fredrick over to northern Carroll/Balt County. A spot like Shrewsbury or Mt. PSU would be my pick for the winner overall with someone like @losetoa6also in the running. Nice little storm

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6 minutes ago, mappy said:

somewhere in between will be my guess. Places that are cold enough as precip moves in should have no issue with sticking. places further south, it could be 33/34 and snow, not white rain, no road issues. 

I hope Fairfax closes tomorrow night out of an abundance of caution.

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Areas north of I-70 might do pretty well with this setup. The M/D folks might sneak away with a solid advisory level snowfall. Wouldn't be surprised with a 4-5" jack from a line of northern Fredrick over to northern Carrol/Balt County. A spot like Shrewsbury or Mt. PSU would be my pick for the winner overall with someone like @losetoa6 perhaps in the running. Nice little storm

How about...oh, I don't know, just throwing a number out here...say like 6.5 miles south of I-70 do in this setup??:weenie:

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