Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 yeah...GFS is a solid 3-4 hours of snow for DC. Not sure I believe it. Would be 1-2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This thread was a GREAT idea! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ukie looks like a solid 2-4, more down towards RVA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM That NAM is ideal for SoMD. If it weren't such a crap model I'd get excited. But it sucks, so I won't get excited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 euro is 1-2" for dc metro...gonna have to keep an eye on surface temps though...looks like maybe a 3-4 hour period of snow from like 5-6 am to 9-10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: euro is 1-2" for dc metro...gonna have to keep an eye on surface temps though...looks like maybe a 3-4 hour period of snow from like 5-6 am to 9-10 am not seeing that on WxBell, honestly. does look like 3-4" of snow TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not seeing that on WxBell, honestly. does look like 3-4" of snow TV SV's map might be wonky...they dont match up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Nams are rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gfs still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Ji said: Nams are NAMS Fixed it for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 These little events with cold coming in and forcing along the front are always "fun" to track. The majority of the time the cold comes in as the precip is winding down. Snow in the air to maybe an inch looks reasonable as depicted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: These little events with cold coming in and forcing along the front are always "fun" to track. The majority of the time the cold comes in as the precip is winding down. Snow in the air to maybe an inch looks reasonable as depicted. I envision a scenario where your area does well with this. Good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ahh cold air chasing precip, always works in our favor. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I envision a scenario where your area does well with this. Good luck There have been some hints of a bit more of a wave, best seen on 850 mb vort panels, as the front progresses south on some guidance. If that happens and the precip is more robust in the colder air then maybe. Might even be a bit south of here. Outside of that I can't see this producing more than an inch or 2 anywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, mappy said: Ahh cold air chasing precip, always works in our favor. I think you might do well also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: There have been some hints of a bit more of a wave, best seen on 850 mb vort panels, as the front progresses south on some guidance. If that happens and the precip is more robust in the colder air then maybe. Might even be a bit south of here. Outside of that I can't see this producing more than an inch or 2 anywhere. Well, I would think the high bar would be 2-3” anywhere. Don’t think that will be here. About 98% certain of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think you might do well also If the precip is around for it, then yes, I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ummmm. Yeah. I will take what the HRRR is smoking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Oh. And it is still snowing on the HRRR after that map. I am all for the possible Saturday thing. But I will always take the snow that is modeled closer in first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM doing its thing and looking juiced up on that boundary late Weds nite. Editing my post, it's juicy, but looks like a central PA special. map (which in my experience of ten winters here looks pretty realistic for south-central Maryland/DC suburbs for these types of setups) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM's are just a little bit further NW with the boundary than the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 It's like the FV3 knows exactly where DC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: It's like the FV3 knows exactly where DC is. It's Ian's famous corn fumes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It's Ian's famous corn fumes. The what? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Since this is now the main show for the week (hopefully not), the 12z GFS looked pretty solid for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Since this is now the main show for the week (hopefully not), the 12z GFS looked pretty solid for much of the area. 2.7”? Biggest snowfall of the season for me. Hell yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Since this is now the main show for the week (hopefully not), the 12z GFS looked pretty solid for much of the area. Since about 35 hours ago it showed nothing, yes, I would take this in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1-2" during rush hour is actually looking formidable at this point. Love areas north of I-70 for this one with a secondary max over NoVA into Central MD when a weak wave ridges up the boundary after 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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