WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 11:45 and steady rain at 42 and I think I see glisteney things every once in while but I’m afraid not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I think you mean 42, H****D Yeah I just caught it and thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 40 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 51.0 / 36.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Dud. Is ok boys next one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Dud. Is ok boys next one ? You are aware that no models indicated snow before 6am or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Is there a way to calculate how many feet of above ground, above freezing temperatures a Penny sized snowflake can survive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Rain. Nearest pws shows 44F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 57 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Dud. Is ok boys next one What about this radar screams “dud” to you? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I have spoken and so it shall be. -RSC 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 36/33.4 with light rain. radar looks promising to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: I have spoken and so it shall be. -RSC Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Another test for King GFS. Most bullish this am. 0Z WB GFS, EURO, Can, and 3K NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 43/36 no analysis needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Latest HRRR shows more snow in NJ and into NYC / LI than our area GFS may be turning us over too quickly - almost all other models are less snowy this AM. Radar is definitely juicy to the west and temps are down to 37 here, so let’s see how this all unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Temps have been dropping steadily...down to 41 here. We Shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Down to 39, off to bed.. be up at 7 to see whats falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Have a good friend from my college days who lives out in Lexington KY reporting heavy snow - big flakes with 1” per hour rates. Said temps crashed like a rock once the main batch of precip arrived and it’s sticking with ease. Heavy snow in WV and KY with a moisture train trailing back to the TX / LA border with strong thunderstorms popping up on the tail end. Not sure how much of that precip is supposed to make it up this way, but if we can drop to freezing by 6-7am, we should be money for 2-3” of paste. Just had a heavy rain shower come through. Temps falling slowly. 38*F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 40/37 -RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Lol the models give us maybe a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol the models give us maybe a dusting too warm leading in, i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Unfortunately this has bust written all over it. Temps running warm and modeling keeps delaying changeover. Hell some areas may only see about an hour of snow. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 37.4/36.9RN- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Dont feel to bad all total bust for me in south PA temps are actually up from midnight 34 then to 35 36 now 38. front all ready passed by so go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Ruin said: Dont feel to bad all total bust for me in south PA temps are actually up from midnight 34 then to 35 36 now 38. front all ready passed by so go figure. Don't worry it will be plenty cold by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 true but would of been nice for all of us to get a few inchs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Changeover happening as we speak in higher elevations up highway 15 near Thurmont and smithsburg, as well as in NoVA. Rain/snow line appears to be right along I-81 currently. Heavy precip along the front and streaming in from the SW as this unfolds. All comes to how much QPF remains once we flip over. If there’s another 0.25” of liquid left in the tank, we still have a shot at 2”. Can definitely see how the GFS (with its known biases) was seeing 3-4” in the metro corridor yesterday. Should still see a decent amount of QPF as precip is coming in like a wall, but the GFS is likely going to be slightly off when it comes to changeover time, which makes all the difference in a marginal event. When we fall short in these setups, this is almost always exactly why. Models bring in cold air just too soon and overestimate remaining precip once the flip occurs. We should know by 7-8a whether or not this will dud. NWS sticking with their guns (renewed the WWA @ 3:40 AM — 2” with 3-4” lollies from 6a-1pm) Let’s see if they’re right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 35.5F with rain Come on temps, fall faster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: 35.5F with rain Come on temps, fall faster. Think this one is going down as a bust. We NEVER do well with these kinds of waves where it starts as rain and then will change over to snow. The cold is always later arriving than models believe. I'm supposed to be flipping over in the next hour and it looks like the cold air is still stuck up in PA northwest of Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 To the naked eye, timing wise, it looks like the best dynamics may be east of us by the time the flip occurs. Snow/rain line getting stonewalled around the BR. Need that sucker to starting pushing SE. Seeing heavy precip roll in now with some nice yellows and dark greens in DC proper. Should help the cause and cool the column down. Have to hope there’s enough juice left in the tank for us to cash in a quick couple of inches. Not looking likely though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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