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Thursday 1/20/22 Stat Padder Discussion and Observations


stormtracker
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3 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said:

It might not matter, but the 0z Hrrr has temperatures 7f colder than current observations for 9pm in southern Maryland. Temperatures have been holding steady just above 50f since sundown


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both nam and hrrr showing more rain than previous runs.  think they picked up on the higher temps.

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38 minutes ago, snowfan said:

No need to be so harsh. It’s just snow.

Not being harsh at all. Just saying. These setups never work here. Regardless of what the models were showing all day. To my knowledge the mesos are backpedaling on snowfall amounts the last couple hours leading up to game time which is typical in these setups. 

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A little surprised LWX bumped UP totals N/W…

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 9:15 PM UPDATE: Not too much has changed since the afternoon. With some of the hi-res guidance coming in a touch hotter, have decided to up the high end snowfall totals with the Thursday morning system. Still have an expected snowfall forecast of 1-2". However, addded a 3-4" contour along and just west of the I-95 corridor to account for some of the more aggressive model solutions given the strength of the arctic front.

 

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