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Thursday 1/20/22 Stat Padder Discussion and Observations


stormtracker
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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Eh, doubt it.  As much as I'm hugging King GFS and Prince NAM, the GFS has been too wet leading into storms this year a few times.  I'd have to get 2.9" to beat Sunday/Monday, which I'm skeptical on.  Hope I'm wrong!

I think Columbia will end up in the 2-3” range. So perhaps a tie

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From the wonderful HREF ensemble site, mean and max:

snowfall_024h_mean_ma.f03600.thumb.png.0a83f6f2ac806e4e66b65cf9c5648c28.pngsnowfall_024h_max_ma.f03600.thumb.png.12b5319c6b788a07ccc74e5ee80847cc.png

It feels like this particular product is not usually so blanket acceptable in its output for setups like this, so I feel pretty optimistic we can get to the 2 inch mark (Edit: in the metros is my context here). And I'll be curious to see if any jackpotting happens around the green area highlighted by the max map.

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6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

From the wonderful HREF ensemble site, mean and max:

snowfall_024h_mean_ma.f03600.thumb.png.0a83f6f2ac806e4e66b65cf9c5648c28.pngsnowfall_024h_max_ma.f03600.thumb.png.12b5319c6b788a07ccc74e5ee80847cc.png

It feels like this particular product is not usually so blanket acceptable in its output for setups like this, so I feel pretty optimistic we can get to the 2 inch mark (Edit: in the metros is my context here). And I'll be curious to see if any jackpotting happens around the green area highlighted by the max map.

Liking this particular map. :) Looks like it might be jackpotting around Sugarloaf area.

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High was supposed to be 49. Ran that stop sign without slowing down. 52 fun loving degrees in DC proper.  We had snow within hours of it being 60 plus recently and rain within hours of it being in the teens so why not do this. Would be funny is DCA could pull off a third straight 2.6. 

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

not gonna lie...I was looking forward to the weekend..that said couple inches of snow is fine

Me too, but since that looks dead we gotta squeeze what we can put if the stat padder. Sometimes these slow moving front type details have a surprise or two in them. My bar is 1 inch. But I’d prefer the 2-4 some if the models are advertising lol

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