Ruin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Dont feel to bad all total bust for me in south PA temps are actually up from midnight 34 then to 35 36 now 38. front all ready passed by so go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Ruin said: Dont feel to bad all total bust for me in south PA temps are actually up from midnight 34 then to 35 36 now 38. front all ready passed by so go figure. Don't worry it will be plenty cold by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 true but would of been nice for all of us to get a few inchs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Changeover happening as we speak in higher elevations up highway 15 near Thurmont and smithsburg, as well as in NoVA. Rain/snow line appears to be right along I-81 currently. Heavy precip along the front and streaming in from the SW as this unfolds. All comes to how much QPF remains once we flip over. If there’s another 0.25” of liquid left in the tank, we still have a shot at 2”. Can definitely see how the GFS (with its known biases) was seeing 3-4” in the metro corridor yesterday. Should still see a decent amount of QPF as precip is coming in like a wall, but the GFS is likely going to be slightly off when it comes to changeover time, which makes all the difference in a marginal event. When we fall short in these setups, this is almost always exactly why. Models bring in cold air just too soon and overestimate remaining precip once the flip occurs. We should know by 7-8a whether or not this will dud. NWS sticking with their guns (renewed the WWA @ 3:40 AM — 2” with 3-4” lollies from 6a-1pm) Let’s see if they’re right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 35.5F with rain Come on temps, fall faster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: 35.5F with rain Come on temps, fall faster. Think this one is going down as a bust. We NEVER do well with these kinds of waves where it starts as rain and then will change over to snow. The cold is always later arriving than models believe. I'm supposed to be flipping over in the next hour and it looks like the cold air is still stuck up in PA northwest of Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 To the naked eye, timing wise, it looks like the best dynamics may be east of us by the time the flip occurs. Snow/rain line getting stonewalled around the BR. Need that sucker to starting pushing SE. Seeing heavy precip roll in now with some nice yellows and dark greens in DC proper. Should help the cause and cool the column down. Have to hope there’s enough juice left in the tank for us to cash in a quick couple of inches. Not looking likely though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Still rain in Brunswick. King GFS is going to bust on this one…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Think this one is going down as a bust. We NEVER do well with these kinds of waves where it starts as rain and then will change over to snow. The cold is always later arriving than models believe. I'm supposed to be flipping over in the next hour and it looks like the cold air is still stuck up in PA northwest of Hagerstown. Certainly appears that way. May very well come down to models being just to 1-2 hours off on the arrival of cold air. Unless that R/S line starts hauling ass, I’m not sure we see more than an hour or two of wet snow that doesn’t stick to roadways. Bummer. My son up at the Mount in Emmitsburg just texted and said they’re currently seeing a rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 39 with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Went to bed at 44°, now 40° and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Certainly appears that way. May very well come down to models being just to 1-2 hours off on the arrival of cold air. Unless that R/S line starts hauling ass, I’m not sure we see more than an hour or two of wet snow that doesn’t stick to roadways. Bummer. My son up at the Mount in Emmitsburg just texted and said they’re currently seeing a rain/snow mix It's a shame because the returns overhead right now are really nice. There is definitely some juice in this wave. Just not cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Still rain in Brunswick. King GFS is going to bust on this one…. Probably wasn’t the best move for us to bank on the GFS in this setup for sure. It’s been the king so far this season, but we also haven’t seen a frontal wave rain to snow setup before today. This setup is more in the wheelhouse of models like the hi res NAM since we’re talking about a potential for rain to heavy snow at 32-33 degrees. Minute details mean everything, which isn’t exactly the GFS’s specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 35 and rain. Not even a flake mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: 35 and rain. Not even a flake mixed in. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Gfs is dead to me 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Same. A few flakes mixing in here in southern York county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Ooooof, that rain/snow line is WAY north of here. Oh well, can’t win ‘em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Probably wasn’t the best move for us to bank on the GFS in this setup for sure. It’s been the king so far this season, but we also haven’t seen a frontal wave rain to snow setup before today. This setup is more in the wheelhouse of models like the NAM Nest since we’re talking about a potential for rain to heavy snow at 32-33 degrees. Minute details mean everything, which isn’t exactly the GFS’s specialty. The bigger problem isn’t the temps…they will crash in the next couple hours. It’s that the front is more progressive and the wave gets pressed south before the cold can get in. It’s only a couple hours off but that was the couple hours it was supposed to be snowing. I never posted much on this because I had a gut feeling this was how it would play out (we’re in a very suppressive flow right now) and I didn’t want to be a deb in the thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I guess the bobchill heater is over. You could argue, while we got some snow, the last "big" storm trended away from us and ended way northwest, this one is going to end up as a rainstorm, and the weekend system is, at best, giving the immediate coast some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Outside of the front magically stalling out and sending that train of shortwaves toward us we aren’t getting anywhere close to verifying our advisory lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, anotherman said: A few flakes mixing in here in southern York county. thats good to know, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Mangled flakes starting to mix in here. 34.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The bigger problem isn’t the temps…they will crash in the next couple hours. It’s that the front is more progressive and the wave gets pressed south before the cold can get in. It’s only a couple hours off but that was the couple hours it was supposed to be snowing. I never posted much on this because I had a gut feeling this was how it would play out (we’re in a very suppressive flow right now) and I didn’t want to be a deb in the thread. Yeeeep. Can easily see how the GFS’s solution from yesterday could have unfolded if cold air got here like 2 hours earlier, but the timing just isn’t right. Oh well. Ended up being exactly what models showed a few days ago. A mainly rain to snow nothing-burger. On to next Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Snowing here, as the back edge races in at mach 1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Not sure why the NWS didn’t mention the bust potential in their 4am discussion…I’m not saying they should have dropped the advisories but they should have at least mentioned that this didn’t seem to be materializing as advertised. Could definitely see it at 4am. Hopefully we still get an hour or 2 burst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 37.6 / 37.2 and light rain in Frederick. Wind (meager as it is) just picked up and switched to coming from the north. Gonna be too little too late though around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I guess the bobchill heater is over. You could argue, while we got some snow, the last "big" storm trended away from us and ended way northwest, this one is going to end up as a rainstorm, and the weekend system is, at best, giving the immediate coast some snow. In the short term… sure. But we still have at least a few more potential threats to track over the next few weeks. As PSU said a week or two ago, our best chances will come in the 21st-28th window when we have a more ideal setup for a coastal storm to develop. Definitely would have been nice to cash in on a few inches from this one today with models primarily showing us below freezing for the next week to allow snowpack to hang around, but we can’t win em all I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Snow starting to mix in here - 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Not sure why the NWS didn’t mention the bust potential in their 4am discussion…I’m not saying they should have dropped the advisories but they should have at least mentioned that this didn’t seem to be materializing as advertised. Could definitely see it at 4am. Hopefully we still get an hour or 2 burst. my kid got a 2hr delay for rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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