WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 HRRR continues a downhill slide out here. My forecast for here is 1/2-1”. Final call. Good luck east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:45 PM, yoda said: 18z GFS tries for 5" at DCA Including DC metro into BALT metro as well Expand Where’s my WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:47 PM, snowfan said: Sure why not Expand Local minimum for me, @mattie g , and @H2O Checks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This is shaping up to be the best snow in Leesburg this year at this rate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:48 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: HRRR continues a downhill slide out here. My forecast for here is 1/2-1”. Final call. Good luck east Expand I think we are on the outside looking in for this one. Not expecting much up my way. Thinking the best forcing should be East of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:48 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: HRRR continues a downhill slide out here. My forecast for here is 1/2-1”. Final call. Good luck east Expand Def not a Winchester area jack type event. Best lift well SE and temps aren’t enough to “even” things out. Definitely thinking about going down to Howard county tonight to stay at my broski’s house to catch the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:54 PM, Chris78 said: I think we are on the outside looking in for this one. Not expecting much up my way. Thinking the best forcing should be East of us. Expand Yep. This is the old hop, skip, and jump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:45 PM, yoda said: 18z GFS tries for 5" at DCA Including DC metro into BALT metro as well Expand I'm thoroughly confused, as Pivotal 10:1 has almost 3" on the ground around DCA by 12Z, while TT 10:1 has a small fraction of that. The final totals then of course end up with a big discrepancy. There is a single snowfall field in the GFS (it's a liquid equivalent), so they should in theory be using the same field, applying the same 10:1 SLR, and getting the same result. One of them is doing something funky, and my money is on Pivotal being the goofball. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:56 PM, high risk said: I'm thoroughly confused, as Pivotal 10:1 has almost 3" on the ground around DCA by 12Z, while TT 10:1 has a small fraction of that. The final totals then of course end up with a big discrepancy. There is a single snowfall field in the GFS (it's a liquid equivalent), so they should in theory be using the same field, applying the same 10:1 SLR, and getting the same result. One of them is doing something funky, and my money is on Pivotal being the goofball. Expand Probably so... but WB shows 3-4 as well for total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:55 PM, jayyy said: Def not a Winchester area jack type event. Best lift well SE and temps aren’t enough to “even” things out. Definitely thinking about going down to Howard county tonight to stay at my broski’s house Expand Yep. Got teased. Gonna get hosed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:58 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Yep. Got teased. Gonna get hosed lol Expand You’ll win the war. Battles come and go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:59 PM, BristowWx said: You’ll win the war. Battles come and go Expand Eh, it’s fine. I’ll look at pictures and traffic cams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 10:02 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Eh, it’s fine. I’ll look at pictures and traffic cams Expand For VA as a whole if this storm hits tidewater this has been a January to remember. After a December to forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Losing a little to surface melting plus above freezing temps initially at start means I’m fairly skeptical of these Kuchera maps showing >10:1 ratios essentially. I’d love more than 3” for this storm but I doubt it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Going with an inch max for my yard, given these anafrontal deals are precarious at best with cold chasing precip. Models tend to overdo the frozen. If there is some decent Fgen as some guidance is depicting, then maybe there is a chance for an 'overperformer' here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:47 PM, snowfan said: Sure why not Expand This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Not a ton of cloud cover yet. Hopefully get some radiational cooling before the drama unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 10:06 PM, WxUSAF said: Losing a little to surface melting plus above freezing temps initially at start means I’m fairly skeptical of these Kuchera maps showing >10:1 ratios essentially. I’d love more than 3” for this storm but I doubt it. Expand Right. This still seems like a 1-2” event w someone maxing out at 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 10:04 PM, BristowWx said: For VA as a whole if this storm hits tidewater this has been a January to remember. After a December to forget Expand I’d say last year was maybe more memorable from the ice, but they can both be memorable. Maybe less so for RIC. Edit: but, it’s the 19th. There’s still time to make it the bestester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Looks like a general 1 to 2" IMBY. Doubt we get 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3.2" is my call for my new location 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 9:56 PM, high risk said: I'm thoroughly confused, as Pivotal 10:1 has almost 3" on the ground around DCA by 12Z, while TT 10:1 has a small fraction of that. The final totals then of course end up with a big discrepancy. There is a single snowfall field in the GFS (it's a liquid equivalent), so they should in theory be using the same field, applying the same 10:1 SLR, and getting the same result. One of them is doing something funky, and my money is on Pivotal being the goofball. Expand Yeah I have to wonder how anything gets 3" by 12Z tomorrow morning, but whatever. I don't know how many of these sites' algorithms use the information contained in the available GFS files, maybe some of them ignore the liquid equivalent? Though can't see why they would do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 10:22 PM, losetoa6 said: High 41 - snowcover definitely capped temps here Currently 40 Early am Timing and ground temps should maximize stickage once surface temps drop . Hoping for a couple inches . I haven't seen much guidance today but quick peek looks to have slid best qpf south to near i70 on se . My highest lollie guess is Damascus to nw Howard county . Expand Parr's ridge for the W! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 10:22 PM, losetoa6 said: High 41 - snowcover definitely capped temps here Currently 40 Early am Timing and ground temps should maximize stickage once surface temps drop . Hoping for a couple inches . I haven't seen much guidance today but quick peek looks to have slid best qpf south to near i70 on se . My highest lollie guess is Damascus to nw Howard county . Expand Agreed. I’m going to be near Taylorsville in Carroll Co. for this one, so should get to see some decent rates in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Arlington schools have caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 10:25 PM, jaydreb said: Arlington schools have caved. Expand Fauquier is closed until April 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 @psuhoffmancan you do a zoom for the 22z HRRR? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 10:29 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: HRRR Expand Not sure what that means lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now