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January 17 Kitchen sink storm/obs


Typhoon Tip
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Might be worth mentioning, .. the hours don't line up perfectly ( staggered by 1:30 ~ ) but the 22:27 analysis by WPC gives the impression that the GFS may have been slightly too aggressive in lowering surface pressure over eastern/central NE...  Their analysis is 22:27, featuring 2 mb > than the GFS' 18z fix for 00z over western Ma.   Looks also as though the center of the high pressure is modeled east of where it is now of 00z.  

Don't have any sfc source that land right on the top of the hour unfortunately..

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3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

 

Is this much cold here just before what is going to actually become a rain event…. at all unusual? I also notice we aren’t expecting much ice or sleet… expecting a thorough scouring out of the cold air with the setup.

 

 

Well we’ve definitely seen it happen a few times over the years.  It’s a little bit rare to be going from the mid teens to rain but it happens.

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10 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

 

Is this much cold here just before what is going to actually become a rain event…. at all unusual? I also notice we aren’t expecting much ice or sleet… expecting a thorough scouring out of the cold air with the setup.

 

 

The short answer is no… It’s not usual to go from 22 with a dewpoint of 10 to above freezing and rain. It doesn’t make it impossible though …

The dew points are very low north of the pike here in the interior… When that saturates it’s going to hygroscopically cool the surface layer considerably … 

 I’m also noticing that the surface synopsis right now it looks like the high-pressure is a little bit more resistant to leave than some of these global models had suggested - …just a little but maybe the Euro was onto something?

We’ll see … But the storm is moving so fast I think that these factors may last long enough to get us under the occlusion boundary i.e. shut off before we get a huge huge rain out of this - I’m wondering now …

there was a storm similar to this back in 1986 I wanna say in late January early February was forecast to be a small amount of snow going over to rain from a coastal storm set to cut up across the area and what actually happened is the models underestimated the cold … trip point squeezed under as it snowed very heavy for about four hours and we amassed 8 to 10 inches and then it flipped drizzle and ended. 

Of course this is not 1987 and the tech is a lot more sophisticated… But given those obs above together with the speed of this thing one may to wonder

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