winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: CMC way SE, Euro on it's own here, sigh. Yeah CMC gets a little snow to coastal Virginia and that's it. If Euro backs down at 1pm, we'll know we're in trouble with this threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I expect it to stay the same I do too actually. But this will be some coup if the euro pulls it off. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: It will eventually cave. No other model is remotely close to the euro. It's been trash all season. All the models have been trash 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: I do too actually. But this will be some coup if the euro pulls it off. It has happened in the past but the euro has been really shaky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'm going with the Euro here. Ensembles continuing to trend higher with offshore heights and pulling the energy further SW. The low will not escape east that easily. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: It will eventually cave. No other model is remotely close to the euro. It's been trash all season. Compared to the same time yesterday the models have moved MARKEDLY closer to the Euro solution. Just because they've had 2 runs where the progress has stalled on most models (and apparently gone back on the CMC), doesn't mean anything is done trending in one way or another. There's still enough lead time for substantial changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I have some advice for everyone/. If there is a big storm coming and you really dont want to miss up/. Do it Jim Cantorii style. Go to the storm. I went to Monticello Sunday night with the family and we saw about 11-12 inches. drove back to LI last night. No snow to shovel... obviously an expensive hobby, but worth it 1-2 times a winter 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Yup, Gfs has the southern energy take vacation in Mexico. You don’t want that. But the northern stream component looked a little bit better. The euro used to be better with handling the southern stream and phasing. So we'll see if that's still the case. It needs to keep the same solution at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 There's no reason why this can't keep trending north & west. I see a +AO/NAO with a +PNA and an Arctic supply over the area. This is reminscent of 1994. GEFS continues to trend higher heights offshore & SE Canada. And thanks Snowman19 for the weenies you warminista troll. You said every storm has trended NW this year and suddenly this one can't? 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GEFS looks to have made another tick towards Euro, ways to go, but still a little progress. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I expect it to stay the same It's rare that a model, completely on its own like the Euro in this instance, scores a win. If you're right about the Ukie trending the wrong way, that's a sign that the Euro will shift east also. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 We really need enough spacing between this very crowded vort pattern to make something work for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Euro trending towards gfs an other guidance. Not a shock since it's been on its own. This one looks like its headed the wrong way Real storm to watch is Thursday (anafront wave) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro doesn't get it done. Northern stream more progressive. Outruns the Southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro is now an embarrassment. The gfs has beaten the euro so many times of late. The upgrade did terrible for the euro. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Sadly its looking that way. Gfs is the new king. The euro is horrible I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later. The Euro is not bad. It holds serve. WX/PT 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later. The Euro is not bad. It holds serve. WX/PT Thanks for this analysis. It sounds like the Euro was good enough to still keep a close eye on the threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later. The Euro is not bad. It holds serve. WX/PT Thank you for your input and insight.. so much better than “it’s terrible” “it’s all over” doom and gloom posts that we see all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later. The Euro is not bad. It holds serve. WX/PT Thank you! To my untrained eye it seems like there's just a chaotic amount of energy and it's far enough out from now that all of the models are all handling it slightly differently. With so much going on expecting model convergence this early in the game doesn't seem reasonable! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I think there's a possibility this threat might look better again by tonight or tomorrow. It's still 3-4 days away depending on timing which is very uncertain atm. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later. The Euro is not bad. It holds serve. WX/PT Most of the downstream changes are a knock on effect of subtle differences occurring inside hour 72 with regard to that northern stream piece. It's becoming a bit less theoretical today. Still some time for it to change again, but inside 72 you tend to look at it as a bit less theoretical vs trend tracking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The funniest thing about this Euro run is it was also the crappiest with the anafrontal snow too so it was two shots at us lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The funniest thing about this Euro run is it was also the crappiest with the anafrontal snow too so it was two shots at us lol That means the frontal snow is coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The funniest thing about this Euro run is it was also the crappiest with the anafrontal snow too so it was two shots at us lol its coming to its senses and starting to trend toward the GFS for Saturday but will it for Thursdays ??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Eps shifted east but still a west camp closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Greenland High at 1041mb atm...this should help us out with a bit better blocking for our potential snowstorm should that number hold thru the weekend- imho I also feel, not that much of a kick west brings weenie joy OPC prog 96hrs just a hunch the progs for a better outcome, improve in the next 24 dm 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJohn Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Sounds like Long Island has the potential to get a good amount of snow, but maybe not the blockbuster storm we hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doorman said: Greenland High at 1041mb atm...this should help us out with a bit better blocking for our potential snowstorm should that number hold thru the weekend- imho I also feel, not that much of a kick west brings weenie joy OPC prog 96hrs just a hunch the progs for a better outcome, improve in the next 24 dm hope you are correct - but favoring the GFS solution which delays whatever potential till at least Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Delayed but not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Delayed but not denied? WG click the Precip Ens Mean from the link thru next Monday https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html#us the goodies are so close ...you can almost taste them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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