LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: These storms all seems like ones where we got NAMd, with the possible exception of boxing day. I am pretty sure the GFS was first to bring that back. I don't know about 96 but that was the EE rule era. When I say NAMd, I mean it worked out. NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones. It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol. Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson. So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones. It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol. Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson. So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol. I love see the huge NAM figures 48 hrs - 36 hrs out. I think the NAM did well Dec. 2020 for interior areas. Hopefully 0Z Thursday... ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones. It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol. Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson. So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol. Let me suggest David Ortiz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Only exception I can think of is JAN 2016 but in that case long duration and high precipitation amounts- 3 inches of liquid- trumped the high winds! Jan 96 storm stalled out. That storm was responsible for me selling my snow plow and truck the following yr. Made lots of $$ that winter. Plowed for 7 days after that storm. Lots of new business due to nobody being able to hit their accounts. That amount of snow increases road hours drastically and vehicle breakdowns. Made 75k on that storm alone. Blood Money body takes a beating between hitting snow banks, reversing vehicle, dropping/raising/ angling plow and lack of sleep not to mention that storm in particular getting my vehicle stuck at least 10x due to snow drifts a couple as high as 8ft Nobody to shovel your vehicle out but you 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones. It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol. Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson. So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol. I believe they stopped doing upgrades on the NAM back in 2017. They are working on some type of FV3 replacement. In the mean time, the Canadians are continuing to improve the RGEM which seems to be getting better. So maybe the RGEM will become the go to meso with 84 hrs once the NAM stops running. Not a big fan of having to learn all the new biases of a FV3 CAM model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 That was definitely an improvement on the 12z NAM at 500mb. Not quite like the euro yet but definitely better. That's a start. Didn't head the wrong direction. Let's see what everything else does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I believe they stoped doing upgrades on the NAM back in 2017. They are working on some type of FV3 replacement. In the mean time, the Canadians are continuing to improve the RGEM which seems to be getting better. So maybe the RGEM will become the go to meso with 84 hrs once the NAM stops running. Not a big fan of having to learn all the new biases of a FV3 CAM model. Yes I really wished they'd upgrade the NAM instead, but I guess it will live on in the FV3? The same way that the MRF transitioned to the GFS I suppose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 very positive changes on the NAM vs 6z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, nightknights said: Jan 96 storm stalled out. That storm was responsible for me selling my snow plow and truck the following yr. Made lots of $$ that winter. Plowed for 7 days after that storm. Lots of new business due to nobody being able to hit their accounts. That amount of snow increases road hours drastically and vehicle breakdowns. Made 75k on that storm alone. Blood Money body takes a beating between hitting snow banks, reversing vehicle, dropping/raising/ angling plow and lack of sleep not to mention that storm in particular getting my vehicle stuck at least 10x due to snow drifts a couple as high as 8ft Nobody to shovel your vehicle out but you I remember the LIRR was shut down for a week, no commuting into or out of the city. That was the first 20" snowstorm in 13 years and no one knew how to handle it. Also undermeasured, an argument could be made that it was closer to 30" than 20" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I'd say about 50/50 for this one now. Euro having a hit 3 straight runs (big hit last two) is nothing to ignore. However the fact none of the other models have shown an actual hit is still a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I'd say about 50/50 for this one now. Euro having a hit 3 straight runs (big hit last two) is nothing to ignore. However the fact none of the other models have shown an actual hit is still a bit concerning. It's still rather early for all the models to show a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: It's still rather early for all the models to show a hit. I wouldn't expect all but I'd feel better if at least one of the gfs/cmc/ukmet were showing a hit on some of their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: I wouldn't expect all but I'd feel better if at least one of the gfs/cmc/ukmet were showing a hit on some of their runs. Correct, however the NAM taking a big step in the Euro direction is a good sign. If the ICON follows suite, I will be much more confident that this trend is really happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Joe4alb said: Correct, however the NAM taking a big step in the Euro direction is a good sign. If the ICON follows suite, I will be much more confident that this trend is really happening. RGEM took a big step towards the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 RGEM/NAM are good supportive models if other models are on board but not models I would really look at for outcome at this range. Hoping GFS,Ukie, or CMC come on board at 12z. Euro holding serve for a 4th straight run would also be big I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I don't like the icon, but it did make the right move at 12z. Much better at 500 than 06z. Want to see gfs at least move in this direction. Doesn't need to come all the way around yet, but make the right improvements. Euro needs to stay locked in with its solution today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones. It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol. Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson. So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol. The NAM just managed to draw a walk with the last event. It consistently over did mid level warming in my area and was way under with snowfall estimates. This time around it was the HRRR/RAP FTW. It did do okay in the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: The NAM just managed to draw a walk with the last event. It consistently over did mid level warming in my area and was way under with snowfall estimates. This time around it was the HRRR/RAP FTW. It did do okay in the coastal areas. Last event was one of the rare times the mid level warming was overdone. Usually the NAM nails those events but always exceptions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gfs isn't budging. Euro on it's own here. Starting to get a little suspect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 gfs keeps ejecting that energy so fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: gfs keeps ejecting that energy so fast. Unfortunately nothing looks like the euro. This one might be dead 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Unfortunately nothing looks like the euro. This one might be dead Nothing is dead 96 hours out....this coming from someone who wont even be in town this weekend... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Unfortunately nothing looks like the euro. This one might be dead Thats true but the other models look a little slower than the gfs. The other models at least build a storm in the southern Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ukie has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Ukie has nothing How do you get it an hour early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS still persistently holding onto the better threat being Sunday/Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, mikem81 said: How do you get it an hour early... French site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 CMC way SE, Euro on it's own here, sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gfs holds back the energy for Sunday and the Euro doesn't for Saturday. Weird thing is that the Euro is the one that usually holds back energy. Both models do have a coastal now but 1 day later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Sadly the writing is becoming more clear. I expect euro to move toward everything else I expect it to stay the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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