Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Nibor said: Classic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Plenty of a margin of safety for us if this NW trend continues. With this airmass and the HP where it is, we should stay all snow unless the low passes almost overhead. Plus it looks like the kicker might prevent the storm from getting too far north. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Gravity Wave said: Plenty of a margin of safety for us if this NW trend continues. With this airmass and the HP where it is, we should stay all snow unless the low passes almost overhead. Plus it looks like the kicker might prevent the storm from getting too far north. Yep. This one wont cut. It's either gonna miss to the east or crush job. I'm starting to lean the latter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 That's a great run for LI and NYC but too close for comfort for us N and W folks. I would like to see it a tick further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: Wish that kicker would slow down a bit. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Wish that kicker would slow down a bit. If it does this thing crawls up the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The question is probably going to end up being the northward extend of this event. I may end up eating my words here but I do not think there are any precip-type issues, most likely snow or no. The HP looks pretty good, the low track about 6-12 hours later/slower than at 12Z which IMO is good. I have a feeling we are working ourselves into a snowy 7 days ahead. WX/PT 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 That could be a crusher! As long as it don't bounce E/ENE. Tuck and spin...Tuck and spin! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: The question is probably going to end up being the northward extend of this event. I may end up eating my words here but I do not think there are any precip-type issues, most likely snow or no. The HP looks pretty good, the low track about 6-12 hours later/slower than at 12Z which IMO is good. I have a feeling we are working ourselves into a snowy 7 days ahead. WX/PT how long would this event be? 24 hour snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: I think the GFS is still confused and playing catchup and the Sat, Sun, and Mon event consolidate into one big storm. a triple phaser!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, eduggs said: I agree one event (or maybe 2) is more likely than 3 back to back to back. But obviously models don't get confused. Each run is just as likely to be accurate as any other. GIGO as far as data input is concerned, as you get closer to the event the data is better so the models become more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro is a tad delayed with the precip. Starts snowing during the morning hours of Saturday. Very cold temps with snow in the upper teens to low 20s. Ratios would be high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 00z EPS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gefs ticking west 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 52 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is a tad delayed with the precip. Starts snowing during the morning hours of Saturday. Very cold temps with snow in the upper teens to low 20s. Ratios would be high. Any kind of wind kills ratios so never bet on high ratios... they usually dont pan out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: Any kind of wind kills ratios so never bet on high ratios... they usually dont pan out.. Ratios panned out last week when we had a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ratios panned out last week when we had a few inches. Yea small storms with little to no winds is when you see ratios. Was it windy? I dont recall. I was more talking about the bigger Nor easters that we are looking at... you should know winds knock ratios down... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE. The snow could fall as sleet-freezing rain Raleigh east. Even Atlanta may see some snow from this. A better idea of timing and target will post tomorrow. If you are interested: The European model has been targeting the entire corridor with a snow storm from near Atlanta to NYC-BOS for a couple of days now, while other models are relucant, so uncertainty exists. Attached experimental graphic which does not include the probable storm continuing on the 22nd. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Anyone have the 6z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzardo said: Yea small storms with little to no winds is when you see ratios. Was it windy? I dont recall. I was more talking about the bigger Nor easters that we are looking at... you should know winds knock ratios down... Blizz why is that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Anyone have the 6z EURO It only goes out to 90 but it looks even better then at 00Z. Shortwave is a bit further north which would of taken the heaviest snows further along up the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 06z eps 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Blizz why is that ? The flakes get fractured as they get blown into each other (and other stuff) and they settle in denser thereby reducing ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 06z eps Looks like the coastal runners are reduced. This leaves two camps one which would be a good hit and the other OTC. 50 50 shot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Looks like the coastal runners are reduced. This leaves two camps one which would be a good hit and the other OTC. 50 50 shot? I like that there's a nice cluster in a good spot west of the mean there. Still want to see some other guidance come around more. Zero confidence until that happens. The euro has been steadfast in wanting to phase. So we'll see. I feel like maybe the euro would be better in this type of situation, but who knows. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This will be the storm that tells us how effective the recent Euro upgrade was. Before the upgrades around 2015, the Euro would often be the first model to lock onto southern stream systems. The GFS and CMC were always too flat and slow to catch on. The next thing to watch will be the mesos. In the old days, we had something called the EE rule. The ETA which is now the NAM agreeing with the Euro was always a great sign. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: This will be the storm that tells us how effective the recent Euro upgrade was. Before the upgrades around 2015, the Euro would often be the first model to lock onto southern stream systems. The GFS and CMC were always too flat and slow to catch on. The next thing to watch will be the mesos. In the old days, we had something called the EE rule. The ETA which is now the NAM agreeing with the Euro was always a great sign. Hopefully, this will be the comeback storm for the Euro. Wasn't Jan 1996 one of these EE storms? and Jan 2016 was a NAM-GFS storm? Boxing Day was all GFS? Feb 2006 was a GFS-JAP storm? PD2 was Euro-NAM? I'm trying to remember what models did best for all of our 20+ storms....do you think someone could make a table about this and the various indices and ENSO conditions at the time? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Blizzardo said: Yea small storms with little to no winds is when you see ratios. Was it windy? I dont recall. I was more talking about the bigger Nor easters that we are looking at... you should know winds knock ratios down... Only exception I can think of is JAN 2016 but in that case long duration and high precipitation amounts- 3 inches of liquid- trumped the high winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The only thing I am 100% confident of with this storm in NYC Metro is it will be 100% frozen and most likely 100% all snow . I also think the farther south and east you are in the metro the greater accumulations possible............and there is a chance the north - northwest suburbs get close to nothing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wasn't Jan 1996 one of these EE storms? and Jan 2016 was a NAM-GFS storm? Boxing Day was all GFS? Feb 2006 was a GFS-JAP storm? PD2 was Euro-NAM? I'm trying to remember what models did best for all of our 20+ storms....do you think someone could make a table about this and the various indices and ENSO conditions at the time? These storms all seems like ones where we got NAMd, with the possible exception of boxing day. I am pretty sure the GFS was first to bring that back. I don't know about 96 but that was the EE rule era. When I say NAMd, I mean it worked out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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