Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Don't think this gfs run will get it done... It’s exactly where you want it 5 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Seems to me the GFS is splitting the two energies while Euro is consolidating them and bringing it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Whoever is not worried about the GFS not being close does not like snow IMO. I take the other side - I'm definitely concerned. And we don't really have so much time to shift this. By hour 60 it's clear the trof has no chance. Really even by hour 48 it's pretty much toast. So the next few runs of the GFS better start showing some changes or we're into longshot territory. That said, this run was a tiny little bit better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Lets hope Euro is right because if the wave GFS is focused on ends up becoming our storm that low over the great lakes may cause us precip type problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: It’s exactly where you want it 5 days out Disagree. The GFS is not close. And it's not a track problem. It's a trof problem. If the GFS is close to being correct, we have no east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Disagree. The GFS is not close. And it's not a track problem. It's a trof problem. If the GFS is close to being correct, we have no east coast storm. Why would we trust the GFS setup over the Euro at this juncture though? Also the GFS does show a potential east coast storm it's just a day later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Also have to think about the pattern. Right now I'd take my chances with amped over surpressed. Normally I wouldn't say that anywhere near the coast but this cold air in the next few weeks is strong. Of course it depends a bit on Location, overamped got me an inch yesterday the ACY blizzard I didn't see a flake. However I realize for places like South Shore of LI and NJ coast it was the opposite. I'm a snow purist so I'd rather see no snow at all over seeing snow washed away by rain. It's just a thing I've always had since the 80s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Why would we trust the GFS setup over the Euro at this juncture though? It's not GFS vs Euro. It's snowstorm vs no snowstorm (for us). 1) The no storm idea has support from the CMC, UK, and ICON. And maybe the NAM extrapolated (tenuous). 2) The EC barely gets it done. Even with a very sharp and amplified trof, the heavy QPF is confined to I-95 east. 3) Snowstorms usually don't work out; just basic climo statistics. If something can go wrong, it usually will. There are several potential problems visible on the EC H5 chart that could easily mess this up. We need several key features to cooperate, none of which have support from other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: No, we just know that American science is a POS. I think the EC is the best global domain meteorological model in the world. I'd still vote no snowstorm right now if I had to. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm a snow purist so I'd rather see no snow at all over seeing snow washed away by rain. It's just a thing I've always had since the 80s. When I was young I used to agree. Now Im looking for excitement I guess so I'd take snow to rain over cold and frigid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: I think the EC is the best global domain meteorological model in the world. I'd still vote no snowstorm right now if I had to. I'd agree at this point I'd lean no snowstorm as well. If Euro holds it's solution at 0Z and/or any other models come on board at 0Z my confidence would go up a lot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Stock up on the hand lotion. Cracked skin, raw knuckles, and chapped lips are no fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: I think the EC is the best global domain meteorological model in the world. I'd still vote no snowstorm right now if I had to. I'm in the same boat. Euro on an island isn't good enough for me. Need some other guidance to come around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 57 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one You said every storm trended NW this winter but suddenly this one can't? There's every reason for this to trend west actually. In fact eventually people may panic about it trending too far west. Gfs is moving towards euro btw, higher heights off the coast. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: You said every storm trended NW this winter but suddenly this one can't? There's every reason for this to trend west actually. In fact eventually people may panic about it trending too far west. You need a storm before it can trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Stock up on the hand lotion. Cracked skin, raw knuckles, and chapped lips are no fun. You got that right my lips were so chapped a week or so ago I never had anything like that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: You need a storm before it can trend north. Gfs has a storm but it's well offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, eduggs said: It's not GFS vs Euro. It's snowstorm vs no snowstorm (for us). 1) The no storm idea has support from the CMC, UK, and ICON. And maybe the NAM extrapolated (tenuous). 2) The EC barely gets it done. Even with a very sharp and amplified trof, the heavy QPF is confined to I-95 east. 3) Snowstorms usually don't work out; just basic climo statistics. If something can go wrong, it usually will. There are several potential problems visible on the EC H5 chart that could easily mess this up. We need several key features to cooperate, none of which have support from other guidance. I think your view might be a bit biased because of your location. On Long Island the chances are significantly higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: When I was young I used to agree. Now Im looking for excitement I guess so I'd take snow to rain over cold and frigid. Oh I hate cold and dry too (I assume thats what you meant.) I just meant let's say if we get 2-4 inches here and 50 miles south of here gets a foot. I wouldn't be extremely happy about it, but it's better than getting all your snow washed away by rain. The ACY snowstorm wasn't something I liked either, because we didn't get diddly from that, very much like the Feb 1989 event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think your view might be a bit biased because of your location. On Long Island the chances are significantly higher. Agree the CMC is not very far from dumping snow onto LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I'm in the same boat. Euro on an island isn't good enough for me. Need some other guidance to come around. You're in a different boat entirely, you're on the east end lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Oh I hate cold and dry too (I assume thats what you meant.) I just meant let's say if we get 2-4 inches here and 50 miles south of here gets a foot. I wouldn't be extremely happy about it, but it's better than getting all your snow washed away by rain. The ACY snowstorm wasn't something I liked either, because we didn't get diddly from that, very much like the Feb 1989 event. Yes definitely agree with that I'd rather have 2-4 of all snow than 2-4 washed away by rain but i'd probably rather have 2-4 washed away by rain then all dry and cold unless there already is a snowpack in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I'd agree at this point I'd lean no snowstorm as well. If Euro holds it's solution at 0Z and/or any other models come on board at 0Z my confidence would go up a lot though. Lee Goldberg already has the snow icon up for Saturday. He said that we'll either get a snowstorm or just miss it, but his confidence is high enough for snowstorm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: You're in a different boat entirely, you're on the east end lol. Yes, but the reason the euro was a hit was because it showed a clean phase. Nothing else is doing that yet. So they miss. I believe that's what he's getting at. It's not a straightforward process of the low being west or east. Hence my agreement with him. Hopefully the euro has the right idea here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The CMC definitely has a storm, it's weak and surpressed but dumps over 6 inches into Virginia so to me thats a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 A few EC individual members look too wrapped up, just like this past storm. And a bunch look like the GFS. Let's not completely assume any options are off the table. If we do get the shift we're looking for towards the EC, then inland solutions definitely could become a concern. But for now we need to see the GFS camp shift towards the EC. Then we'll worry about ptype if we have to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I took the CMC on a date, and I'm sleeping with the EC. Will not marry either. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 So you're going to break both their hearts and ruin our snow? You shall pay for your insolence! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro would be really nice based off H5. Let's see what the eps shows soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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