East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?

[Physicsteve]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t seen a complete P-type bust from the day before for a major event in a while. The most memorable one for me was 1-20-78. The forecast from the day before was for rain heavy at times. The next morning we had 12-18” on the ground. 

But I guess the term bust can be highly subjective.
 

My parents got married the next day and had to use my dad’s brother and wife’s rings because theirs were stuck at the jewelers (don’t know why they cut that so close). The way they tell it it started as snow but was supposed to flip to rain overnight but never did. I keep that hope alive whenever in a marginal temp situation. 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Since I have a frame of reference back to the 70s, ...

The most memorable one for me was 1-20-78. The forecast from the day before was for rain heavy at times. The next morning we had 12-18” on the ground. 

But I guess the term bust can be highly subjective.
 

Me too and I guess bust is a subjective term because I remember a fair bit of disappointment until I took some meteorology classes in college.

Ooh big bust but then total salvation a month later. That was, far and away, my favorite period of winter weather growing up on LI. The rest was really pretty lackluster outside of a few events and ice storms. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, March 2001 was pretty bad. But the writing was on the wall for January 2008. Each run from 3 days out was cutting back on the snowfall. The morning of the storm several models had much less snowfall than they were showing from the days before. 

It always seems to be the March storms that seem to be the most iffy.  I just remembered March 2014 that was another one.... weren't models predicting a foot of snow up to a day before the storm and by the time it came around to storm time it was apparent we'd get fringed with 1-2"?

The other one that sticks out in my mind is the April Fools' Day storm in 1997, forecasts were for 8-16 inches of snow if I remember correctly, and we ended up with 1-2 inches.

 

[gravitylover]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

The other one that sticks out in my mind is the April Fools' Day storm in 1997, forecasts were for 8-16 inches of snow if I remember correctly, and we ended up with 1-2 inches.

 

I got 17" of tree snapping glop. The forecast busted low

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I got 17" of tree snapping glop. The forecast busted low

Yep same here, 16 inches of snow. 
 

We lost a big apple tree in the back from that one. My wife always hated that tree and wanted to take it down and of course she got her wish. 

[wdrag]

So,  In summary, presuming we have a grazer across outran Cape May County overnight... we will have missed a pretty good storm by around 160 miles.  This is similar or slightly better than a D5 NHC forecast error.    At least we knew we were in the NW fringe per the initial WPC D5-6 prediction which pretty much nailed the centroid, albeit with only 30-49% pops of 3"+ snow. See the initial thread issued 1101A/16. 

23-24 probably restricted to e PA/NYS.  Monitoring for spotty SW- but not looking anything decent. 

[wdrag]

Part one of the 4 day thread: So we know it snowed 4 hours in Wildwood of extreme southern NJ overnight, and that the Boston area is picking up accumulative ocean effect snow showers, with one CoCoRaHs report of about 5" along the south shore.  I'll add the CoCoRaHs mapped reports from this morning at about 10A for a summary on the part one failed for us ECWS.

Part two seems to be gaining a little MINOR traction, from either scattered snow showers late Sunday (rain/wet snow LI), or a possible general light snow late Monday-Tuesday more likely for the I84 corridor, but possibly extending down to I80.  Recommend following up here for this part two, if and as needed the next 2 days. Will adjust thread title slightly by 730A.

[wdrag]

So here's what has happened the past 24 hours ending around 8A snowfall wise. Three CoCoRaHs graphics. Click each for detail if interested. 

Massachusetts south shore (Ocean effect due to storm circulation)

Wildwood area down to se DE on northern fringe of the synoptic snowfall.

Jackpot for e NC snowfall. 

 

[wdrag]

Of interest to me.  Steepening lapse rates late Sunday with the CFP, and isobar hints of a weak inverted trough back from the Atlantic back into NJ, could bring small areas 1/2-1" snows to NJ/e PA.

Also RGEM picking up on WAA small 1/4-2" snow acc down through the sub forum late on the 24th.

Which is it, if either?

I know we're all interested in next weekend... but the short term might provide a freshening bit of happiness to some parts of subforum landscape?  It is cold and I'll take what we can get in this currently cold pattern. 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

So here's what has happened the past 24 hours ending around 8A snowfall wise. Three CoCoRaHs graphics. Click each for detail if interested. 

Massachusetts south shore (Ocean effect due to storm circulation)

Wildwood area down to se DE on northern fringe of the synoptic snowfall.

Jackpot for e NC snowfall. 

 

Thanks for compiling these! The ~6" just north of Kitty Hawk on the Outer Banks is impressive. But my favorite reports are the random and isolated heavy snow obs from SE Mass. Unexpected mesoscale heavy snow is possibly more fun than any other weather experience.

[gravitylover]

@wdrag your freshening bit of happiness is my favorite part of winter I think. Sure, who doesn't love an extreme event but it's those nickels and dimes that keep it looking and feeling wintry and are (mostly) harmless. 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

Thanks for compiling these! The ~6" just north of Kitty Hawk on the Outer Banks is impressive. But my favorite reports are the random and isolated heavy snow obs from SE Mass. Unexpected mesoscale heavy snow is possibly more fun than any other weather experience.

I checked back--BOX had a WXA out for se MA at least back into their early Friday package.  They knew...Ocean Effect.  Some of the modeling had it, but imperfectly, as probably we all expect. Kudos BOX. 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

@wdrag your freshening bit of happiness is my favorite part of winter I think. Sure, who doesn't love an extreme event but it's those nickels and dimes that keep it looking and feeling wintry and are (mostly) harmless. 

I'll take a penny right now.  For us who have 3"+ on the ground, it was a beautiful crystalline subzero start to our Saturday.  I too love this part of winter... my wife too. Cardinals at the feeders.  Dog not wanting to go out- he knows. 

[eduggs]

45 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I checked back--BOX had a WXA out for se MA at least back into their early Friday package.  They knew...Ocean Effect.  Some of the modeling had it, but imperfectly, as probably we all expect. Kudos BOX. 

You're right they did a good job. Good forecast discussions highlighting it too. So not really unexpected. But I still really enjoy localized snow events.

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

I'll take a penny right now.  For us who have 3"+ on the ground, it was a beautiful crystalline subzero start to our Saturday.  I too love this part of winter... my wife too. Cardinals at the feeders.  Dog not wanting to go out- he knows. 

Haha yours too? My dog goes a few feet out, shakes a paw and looks back like she can wait as she turns to come back in. I'm good with 3" but it does kind of feel like wasted cold and wasted potential.

 

[wdrag]

So to wrap up the thread: Nice snow and ice event east Carolinas/Va with northern fringe Wildwood NJ and also a period of 1-5" ocean effect snow showers for se MA. That was part one. The fritter part was attached below... two minor events the 23rd, 24th mostly N of I80 as attached.