LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I think most places are near or above average snowfall for January mostly because of the high-ratio event. And the places that missed that one got hit the storm before or the storm after. I feel like I've missed on everything so far this year, but if I add up the individual light events I'm probably near normal for the month. Nighttime, low impact snow alters the perception I think. Overall though it's been cold and wet... just not particularly snowy. We might shift towards colder and drier for the later part of the month. I would prefer that not happen. There is still the likelihood for a big one as the pattern shifts to warmer weather-- root for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: There is still the likelihood for a big one as the pattern shifts to warmer weather-- root for that. Well I won't root against it. But personally I like front-loaded winters. Deep snow leading into a warm pattern that melts and turns to mud doesn't do it for me. I don't think that kind of storm is likely anyway. The only event that I have any confidence in is tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 I know the violins and singing bye-bye OTS are close at hand, if not already pronounced by the weather ME (medical examiners): but below is why I cannot yet pronounce this gone. Note the spaghetti on the right panel for the time shown-18z/Saturday/22. The mean flow is less that 100% confident. MANY members of the 06z/19 have a hang back circulation that could mean a little later development and a more northward push if they verify. I think our NAM/RGEM will be onto this by the 07z/20 cycle tomorrow morning if the hang back verifies. If not: the orchestra plays. Click the graphic to get a better view, if interested. My last on this, probably til Thursday morning. Have a day. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 hang on sloopy ...sloopy hang on!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: See the 1980s when it was actually colder than this in January (avg temps around 25) and we saw even less snow than this. Or December 1989 which was even colder with even less snow. You want to have more snow around here? Find a way to nuke the Pacific Ocean and get rid of it. I mean "Don't Look Up" had an idea on how to do this... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Tough to get excited about the Thursday event, I don’t feel like rain to snow frontal passage events really ever play out all that great, and the official forecasts for this aren’t inspiring much joy. Would love to be surprised. Regardless, let that push through and let’s see how the models do afterwards, especially the short range. If there’s any hope at all for even a minor event, we’ll probably know tomorrow. It’s a shame because the ACY storm grossly underperformed where I am at the western inland section of Toms River (dry air and virga, sharper cutoff than they were forecasting right up until it began), and our quick hitter coastal grazer also underperformed where we were expected to see potentially the highest totals, and you folks near NYC overperformed (glad about that!). We only got about 4.5 inches whereas some of you had around 8, which is fantastic. Such a shame to waste a solid pattern, but winter definitely isn’t over and with the wonky way things have played out thus far, maybe we get lucky in Feb even in a milder set up. I guess we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 @LibertyBell Right around 6 inches. However we were forecast to score decently in the first southern track storm and we got way less than what was forecasted even day of. The cutoff was sharper than anticipated, and the dry air to the north a bigger factor. The soundings were so horrid, I recall. The second storm we were forecasted to hopefully be in heavy banding, but watching the radar loop it just didn’t pan out for us, whereas you guys up north really cashed in. Not crying, I’m happy to have even something this season so far. December had me totally dispirited and apathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: @LibertyBell Right around 6 inches. However we were forecast to score decently in the first southern track storm and we got way less than what was forecasted even day of. The cutoff was sharper than anticipated, and the dry air to the north a bigger factor. The soundings were so horrid, I recall. The second storm we were forecasted to hopefully be in heavy banding, but watching the radar loop it just didn’t pan out for us. Not crying, I’m happy to have even something this season so far. Yep, I understand the frustration, ACY getting 12 inches was pretty irritating to watch for me too- it brought back memories of Feb 1989 when I took off from school for a snowstorm that never came, 6-8 inches that was all virga, They never changed the predictions either, I listened to Craig Allen talk about the same prediction that never came to fruition. And this blown forecast was repeated in December 1989, a cold and dry month, during which the one chance we had at a snowstorm (also a 6-8 prediction), turned to rain within a few minutes because of a secondary that formed too close to the coast. Thunder and lightning....and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 And we down here in Ocean had two horrid, absolutely horrid winters back to back. 2019-2020 was a winter I’ve already deleted from my memory and 21-22, we didn’t score the same way you guys up north scored. I work in Union and my business had 16 inches from the Feb 1st storm whereas my house had like 3-4 from memory. Really longing for a killer snowfall, and it hurts doubly given we finally are in a decent pattern with cold air. I know the cold isn’t always necessary but we had two pretty warm Januarys back to back now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Nam is horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is horrible Yep. Foot plus in Virginia beach. We high an dry. The nam did look better up top. But it dont climb the coast. Gets kicked ots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Yep. Foot plus in Virginia beach. We high an dry. The nam did look better up top. But it dont climb the coast. Gets kicked ots You can't get excited for anything the models show anymore past 144 hours unless the gfs and Euro shows it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: You can't get excited for anything the models show anymore past 144 hours unless the gfs and Euro shows it. Sad... gfs literally has been schooling the euro. Let's hope we can land something soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 My first and probably only post about this suppressed garbage event. Once again looks like too many ducks on the pond/interference and the storm can’t amplify so it stays suppressed garbage. It’s impossible to count on anything over 72 hours out this winter because of the very progressive pattern. This is a take what you can get winter with lots of frustration. Hopefully the end of this month/Feb can turn it around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 2:56 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I never trust the CMC/GFS is these scenarios with the arctic high elongated down into the Gulf when you're relying on some sort ejecting wave...they are predominantly better models with northern stream systems. The Euro almost always ends up winning these in this range, even during its years of sucking recently after that upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 23 hours ago, Franklin0529 said: Unfortunately nothing looks like the euro. This one might be dead Good call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You can't get excited for anything the models show anymore past 144 hours unless the gfs and Euro shows it. The rule this season has been needing more than one model showing the event. The GFS was the overamped model on January 3rd initially showing the heavy totals near ACY in our area. But the mesos showed the confluence over our area and us missing the storm. This event it was the Euros turn to show several overamped runs before it backed off and joined the other models. It would be great to have the old days back like February 2013 and January 1996 when amped up Euro run was all we needed for a KU without any other models on board. But these days we need multiple globals on board beyond 72 hrs and then have the mesos hone in on the finer details like banding locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The rule this season has been needing more than one model showing the event. The GFS was the overamped model on January 3rd initially showing the heavy totals near ACY in our area. But the mesos showed the confluence over our area and us missing the storm. This event it was the Euros turn to show several overamped runs before it backed off and joined the other models. It would be great to have the old days back like February 2013 and January 1996 when amped up Euro run was all we needed for a KU without any other models on board. But these days we need multiple globals on board beyond 72 hrs and then have the mesos hone in on the finer details like banding locations. Agree Euro use to nail storms a few days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Agree Euro use to nail storms a few days out The EPS is great for general 500 mb teleconnections days 5 to 15. But the OP and EPS doesn’t have great skill with coastal storm tracks beyond 3-5 days. It does seem to have a slightly better long range track record with cutters like we had on Monday. Maybe the future 3-5 KM convection allowing resolution upgrade on the OP and EPS will extend the range of coastal storm track prediction. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This is done. We get something late tonight/tomorrow morning and hopefully 24-25th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 25 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: This is done. We get something late tonight/tomorrow morning and hopefully 24-25th time frame. I don't think you and I up here just north of 84 are getting anything tomorrow. We look for the 24-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 HREF for late tonight into tomorrow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I don't think you and I up here just north of 84 are getting anything tomorrow. We look for the 24-25. I think we are. 1-1.5 is my guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I think we are. 1-1.5 is my guess. Hope you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Hope you are right At least You guys have snow on ground. Line seems to be the 287/87 split Nada south of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Agree Euro use to nail storms a few days out Can't they take the old version out of mothballs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: HREF for late tonight into tomorrow: The HREF is pretty accurate in these circumstances so I buy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: At least You guys have snow on ground. Line seems to be the 287/87 split Nada south of that Half snow, half nothing East of the river here. Less than an inch of frozen muck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Half snow, half nothing East of the river here. Less than an inch of frozen muck Yeah you needed to be west of the river. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 40 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Yeah you needed to be west of the river. sorry Very true in many cases. I’m in Orange County five miles west of the river and I’ve had a snowpack since January 7th. About 4 inches otg as of this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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