East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Any threat for this Saturday is now just barely on life support. It would take the ECMWF to bring this back in a big way which IMO is unlikely at this point. The flow is just too flat, not negative tilt to any trough and at this time no reason to think it will happen. Could it? Yes. But it's a long shot. There will, however, be some additional threats beyond this time-frame to keep an eye on. The pattern remains good enough as there's plenty of cold.

WX/PT

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Any threat for this Saturday is now just barely on life support. It would take the ECMWF to bring this back in a big way which IMO is unlikely at this point. The flow is just too flat, not negative tilt to any trough and at this time no reason to think it will happen. Could it? Yes. But it's a long shot. There will, however, be some additional threats beyond this time-frame to keep an eye on. The pattern remains good enough as there's plenty of cold.

WX/PT

IMO there is a lot of time for the models to show something different in a day or so and I expect them to as this again IMO will not be the final outcome as It rarely is 4 days in advance 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the end result isn’t a hit, but this is as much of a positive change as you can really see inside of five days

Cmc also came more northwest along with the gefs. This threat isn't done yet.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Any threat for this Saturday is now just barely on life support. It would take the ECMWF to bring this back in a big way which IMO is unlikely at this point. The flow is just too flat, not negative tilt to any trough and at this time no reason to think it will happen. Could it? Yes. But it's a long shot. There will, however, be some additional threats beyond this time-frame to keep an eye on. The pattern remains good enough as there's plenty of cold.

WX/PT

We have seen big trends this close in. We are still 3 days away.

[eduggs]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the end result isn’t a hit, but this is as much of a positive change as you can really see inside of five days

Disagree. It's better yes, but not a major change. The slower speed makes it seem like a more significant change. If you overlay hr 74 on the 18z instead of hr 78, the changes are easier to see. Or even hr 90 all the way back at 06z. We need at least another two cycles of changes like this to get good snows to our latitude. Back and forth changes will not cut it. The trof on yesterday's big EC solutions was much sharper and more amplified than any current guidance.

[eduggs]

On the good EC runs, there's no shortwave and accompanying vorticity left in TX. All that energy rounds the base of the trof and initiates a tilting of the trof, which is key to getting the storm to our latitude. On every other piece of guidance, notably this 0z GFS, there is too much energy left in TX. That won't cut it.

[MJO812]

Gefs made a nice shift west 

[RU848789]

20 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'd call that a minor change in the right direction. The southern-most vortmax is still on the wrong - upstream side, and the primary shortwave trof is not sharp or amplified enough. This won't get it done, even for DC.

Fair point, thanks.  However, the NAM, itself is showing precip significantly further N/W than its previous run at the same point.  There were also plenty of 500 mb changes that looked good on the NAM too - as well as the GFS, as per brooklyn.  My point wasn't that this would be a Euro type run, but that it looks like we've made steps closer to a storm that could bring some snow to the 95 corridor and especially the coast as opposed to a complete miss.  

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Fair point, thanks.  However, the NAM, itself is showing precip significantly further N/W than its previous run at the same point.  There were also plenty of 500 mb changes that looked good on the NAM too - as well as the GFS, as per brooklyn.  My point wasn't that this would be a Euro type run, but that it looks like we've made steps closer to a storm that could bring some snow to the 95 corridor and especially the coast as opposed to a complete miss.  

 

I agree with that. I could see some light snow getting up to coastal NJ, LI, and maybe even NYC. That would probably mean another significant snowstorm for Cape May. I'd like to think I would feel happy for the snow starved winter enthusiasts down there. But probably not.

[SnoSki14]

Nice to see some positive changes but we're getting down to the wire now.

If we don't continue to see major changes throughout tomorrow then we're prob out of it.

[Jt17]

CMC shows the type of movement we'll need moving forward to get a storm depicted  for the area on the models again:

CMC 12z:

 

CMC 00z:

[larrye]

2 hours ago, Jt17 said:

Well, you are wrong about it being too far east on that run and no, there were 3 runs in a row that had a HECS or at least very SEC level storm 00z, Mon 00z, Mon 12z, and Tues 00z all had 12+ inches at 10-1 ratios for NYC and likely underdone considering there wasn't too much wind associated and it was quite cold. So that consistency led me and others to develop a fair amount of interest in this time period. And then the entire model suite started to trend towards this solution. Just because it stopped trending that way and the Euro trended away from the coast a bit since, doesn't mean people were jumping on a bandwagon. They were just observing and commenting. You're just using a misrepresentation of the evolution of what actually happened on the models to prove some point that frankly doesn't need to be made. We get it, some people are pessimists and some people are optimists, but what you certainly are not is on the "correct" side of things. It's modeling worth discussing. That's it.

Well now you're saying SECS. Yes, perhaps the 00z Euro today approached SECS, not sure about the other runs you referenced (looked to me like less). And I would still submit that this was not exactly a resounding consistency of runs on the Euro ... together with no validation at all from the GFS. And as you can tell, there are others who are more skilled than I who are commenting on the Upper air pattern who are saying it doesn't appear to be favorable. Look, have a party if you want. I'm not giving up yet, but far as I'm concerned ... I look at probabilities and for a higher probability at this point, I'd expect to see more consistency between runs and between models.

[Jt17]

8 minutes ago, larrye said:

Well now you're saying SECS. Yes, perhaps the 00z Euro today approached SECS, not sure about the other runs you referenced (looked to me like less). And I would still submit that this was not exactly a resounding consistency of runs on the Euro ... together with no validation at all from the GFS. And as you can tell, there are others who are more skilled than I who are commenting on the Upper air pattern who are saying it doesn't appear to be favorable. Look, have a party if you want. I'm not giving up yet, but far as I'm concerned ... I look at probabilities and for a higher probability at this point, I'd expect to see more consistency between runs and between models.

00z looked like a HECS and the other 2 SECS was what I was saying. You can go back and look at them if you want. Let's leave the "look, have a party" comments out please. I'm not hear to argue. Just pointing out that I saw some consistency from the Euro as did others and it wasn't just a 1 run thing. That's all. 

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF has more stream interaction

[brooklynwx99]

yeah, this is much better

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Any threat for this Saturday is now just barely on life support. It would take the ECMWF to bring this back in a big way which IMO is unlikely at this point. The flow is just too flat, not negative tilt to any trough and at this time no reason to think it will happen. Could it? Yes. But it's a long shot. There will, however, be some additional threats beyond this time-frame to keep an eye on. The pattern remains good enough as there's plenty of cold.

WX/PT

And you would be right, the Euro is another complete miss. ICON miss, GFS miss, CMC miss, UKMET nothing, and if you look at the 500mb at the end of their runs, the RGEM and NAM would also be misses. EPS was moving east on the last run. For this to suddenly turn back into a major snowstorm threat for Saturday would be an extreme long shot at the very best 

[wdrag]

Probably too positive a tilt on the 500MB pattern to allow anything north to our area 21-22. Still monitoring but for now, this one is more RDU-RIC. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Clearly nothing has been learned. Meteorology over modelology. I’m not saying a MEC is on the way but completely throwing in the towel at the juncture is laughable

[MJO812]

It's over. Everything is falling apart

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't remember who it was but a poster years ago on easternwx who has vanished since used to always point out when the weaker models agree strongly or are very close to the better models like Euro/GFS/CMC at a range of 72-120 it typically means the solution being spit out is going to drastically change.  The theory is that those weaker models rarely will get an evolution right at that range so odds are the better models are wrong too.  when you consider how close the ICON and NavGEM are to the Euro/GFS idea we can watch if his theory plays out.

didn't you have a condition for when the NAVGEM turns out to be right?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's over. Everything is falling apart

It's okay, don't jump off the ledge.  We'll get you the help you need....we promise!  Just don't jump!

[MJO812]

Need a rally monkey 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Any threat for this Saturday is now just barely on life support. It would take the ECMWF to bring this back in a big way which IMO is unlikely at this point. The flow is just too flat, not negative tilt to any trough and at this time no reason to think it will happen. Could it? Yes. But it's a long shot. There will, however, be some additional threats beyond this time-frame to keep an eye on. The pattern remains good enough as there's plenty of cold.

WX/PT

Going with the idea that we will get a big snowstorm but it will happen just before the pattern changes to warmer?

 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's over. Everything is falling apart

Thought you'd be more excited about the event tomorrow by now, but not much interest in it on these boards. What am I missing, it looked good this morning from what I could see.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Thought you'd be more excited about the event tomorrow by now, but not much interest in it on these boards. What am I missing, it looked good this morning from what I could see.

Predictions by all the news outlets is rain first changing to snow later with totals of around 1 inch.

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Predictions by all the news outlets is rain first changing to snow later with totals of around 1 inch.

 

1-3 is a good call

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's over. Everything is falling apart

What an absolute fail this month despite a seemingly favorable pattern.

We could see a BN temperature month with not a lot of snow to show for it.

Either way it's looking increasingly likely we flip mild early Feb so time is ticking.

That being said, we've had better luck getting snow in milder patterns over the past few years then cold ones so who knows what will happen.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What an absolute fail this month despite a seemingly favorable pattern.

We could see a BN temperature month with not a lot of snow to show for it.

See the 1980s when it was actually colder than this in January (avg temps around 25) and we saw even less snow than this.  Or December 1989 which was even colder with even less snow.

You want to have more snow around here?  Find a way to nuke the Pacific Ocean and get rid of it.

[Yanksfan]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What an absolute fail this month despite a seemingly favorable pattern.

We could see a BN temperature month with not a lot of snow to show for it.

We still have one timetable to watch near months end for a storm and it looks like the tellies would be all in our favor. Now if that storm sh*ts the bed, we might as well just shut it down. With the pattern we’re in with nothing to show for it would be a failure in epic proportions.

 

 

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What an absolute fail this month despite a seemingly favorable pattern.

We could see a BN temperature month with not a lot of snow to show for it.

I think most places are near or above average snowfall for January mostly because of the high-ratio event. And the places that missed that one got hit the storm before or the storm after. I feel like I've missed on everything so far this year, but if I add up the individual light events I'm probably near normal for the month. Nighttime, low impact snow alters the perception I think.

Overall though it's been cold and wet... just not particularly snowy. We might shift towards colder and drier for the later part of the month. I would prefer that not happen.