Doorman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Curious your reasoning. What factors out west or globally would increase the probability of a more phased, thus more amplified system that would negatively tilt? WG ...I did a small edit to that post.... neg tilt not on the menu atm I just feel a slow down in speed and the high in the Atlantic cuts down the escape route just a vibe 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: The consternation over the models is always entertaining. Look, ya got waves moving through a generally cold environment in January so there's a fair chance for a storm. Even with the players on the field tomorrow we probably won't be able to "see through" the Thursday morning storm until it's in progress so relax, have a beer and some pizza. Quite possibly the best post of the day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Amazing less than 24 hrs ago the euro showed a foot plus. Not it barely snows to dc. What has happened to that model? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Today's shift flatter was brutal. H5 is far from what we need and time is short. I'm flipping through the big hit EPS members for solace. But I know we are close to entering longshot territory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Amazing less than 24 hrs ago the euro showed a foot plus. Not it barely snows to dc. What has happened to that model? You're looking at the surface outcome. At the surface it looks like a big change. But the trof that makes or breaks this event was always tenuous on the EC. The southern shortwave just barely rounded the base in time to amplify and tilt the trof and it narrowly avoided being squashed and shunted east. A slight change to this fragile setup kills the storm almost completely. In the end if both the EC and GFS were slightly wrong aloft, the end result at the surface is a snowstorm for the southeast coast that moves ENE offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 The Euro ticked north for Thursday...that event probably does have some impact on the ensuing system although with a billion moving parts its hard to say how. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: I know what I'm looking at. It just all fell apart. I thought the euro past performance with handling the ss was gonna hold steady. But it folded like a cheap suit. I know you know what you're looking at. Sorry if I implied otherwise. I use every chance I can - piggybacking on other posts - to encourage people to look at H3, H5 etc... instead of the surface mslp and ptype charts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I know you know what you're looking at. Sorry if I implied otherwise. I use every chance I can - piggybacking on other posts - to encourage people to look at H3, H5 etc... instead of the surface mslp and ptype charts. Maybe the Thursday deal is mucking things up. Idk it's just crazy how it changed so much in less then 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro ticked north for Thursday...that event probably does have some impact on the ensuing system although with a billion moving parts its hard to say how. So fascinating to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, eduggs said: You're looking at the surface outcome. At the surface it looks like a big change. But the trof that makes or breaks this event was always tenuous on the EC. The southern shortwave just barely rounded the base in time to amplify and tilt the trof and it narrowly avoided being squashed and shunted east. A slight change to this fragile setup kills the storm almost completely. In the end if both the EC and GFS were slightly wrong aloft, the end result at the surface is a snowstorm for the southeast coast that moves ENE offshore. Tiny changes aloft as modeled lead to huge differences down on the surface as modeled. Noted piece of education for me. Let's see if that actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is a piece of shit since the upgrade. What does an upgrade actually mean? Tweaking algorithms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What does an upgrade actually mean? Tweaking algorithms? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What does an upgrade actually mean? Tweaking algorithms? Yes and no. What it normally means is you give it more computing power. Then you add different parameters in because of the excess computer power. So when you upgrade the power of a computer, you allow it to run more calculations in a much quicker fashion. As such, an upgrade is really allowing more data to be processed. This extra data - in theory - produces a more accurate result. Sometimes it will change outcomes in various directions and for this reason the algorithms are tweaked, however, an upgrade is not simply changing the software. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Yes and no. What it normally means is you give it more computing power. Then you add different parameters in because of the excess computer power. So when you upgrade the power of a computer, you allow it to run more calculations in a much quicker fashion. As such, an upgrade is really allowing more data to be processed. This extra data - in theory - produces a more accurate result. Sometimes it will change outcomes in various directions and for this reason the algorithms are tweaked, however, an upgrade is not simply changing the software. Whatever the case it hasn't helped it's verification it seems. It used to be the go to model. Not any more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 hours ago, Jt17 said: For awhile now? The Euro was HECs at 00z - I think your comment shows people are just as inclined to over-emphasize the negative as people are to wish for snow. While the odds aren't in favor of a big snowstorm this weekend. It's still a relatively reasonable outcome, so something to continue and monitor, not be doom and gloom about. So you see one Euro run at 00z that is a HECS with no validation from the GFS and you jump on the bandwagon? You don't consider consistency at all? Take a look back at the Euro runs over the past three days for the upcoming weekend. How many have a HECS? And I would even question whether the 00z today had one - it looks a little far east of the benchmark to me, but I could be wrong. Look, I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying that at this point, it's silly to accuse people who are being realistic (and representing what the models are really saying up to now) as being negative. Is it something to watch and could it change? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, larrye said: So you see one Euro run at 00z that is a HECS with no validation from the GFS and you jump on the bandwagon? You don't consider consistency at all? Take a look back at the Euro runs over the past three days for the upcoming weekend. How many have a HECS? And I would even question whether the 00z today had one - it looks a little far east of the benchmark to me, but I could be wrong. Look, I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying that at this point, it's silly to accuse people who are being realistic (and representing what the models are really saying up to now) as being negative. Is it something to watch and could it change? Yes. Well, you are wrong about it being too far east on that run and no, there were 3 runs in a row that had a HECS or at least very SEC level storm 00z, Mon 00z, Mon 12z, and Tues 00z all had 12+ inches at 10-1 ratios for NYC and likely underdone considering there wasn't too much wind associated and it was quite cold. So that consistency led me and others to develop a fair amount of interest in this time period. And then the entire model suite started to trend towards this solution. Just because it stopped trending that way and the Euro trended away from the coast a bit since, doesn't mean people were jumping on a bandwagon. They were just observing and commenting. You're just using a misrepresentation of the evolution of what actually happened on the models to prove some point that frankly doesn't need to be made. We get it, some people are pessimists and some people are optimists, but what you certainly are not is on the "correct" side of things. It's modeling worth discussing. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Didn't Boxing Day in 2010 have OTS solutions until 48 hours? Different setup, I know, but things can definitely change between now and the weekend, even if improbable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Nice Nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Didn't Boxing Day in 2010 have OTS solutions until 48 hours? Different setup, I know, but things can definitely change between now and the weekend, even if improbable If I recall, boxing day was a hit on the models until 72 hours out then went OTS. King Euro brought it back with 24 hours to showtime.. something like that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Nam would have been nice post 84 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Not a bad look on the long range nam lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: Not a bad look on the long range nam lol Extrapolated it would probably be significant (>4") snow up to southern DE and maybe SNJ. It's still a far cry from the EC runs that were hammering I-95 east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 48 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Didn't Boxing Day in 2010 have OTS solutions until 48 hours? Different setup, I know, but things can definitely change between now and the weekend, even if improbable Up until about 36 hours before the event. Here's what I wrote to my email list at 2 am on Christmas Day after the 0Z models came out. We were in Charlotte for Christmas visiting my mom and my sister's family. After the 12Z Christmas models confirmed the big change, I decided we were leaving 2 days early to get back to Jersey in time for the storm, so we left around 7 pm after Christmas dinner. Was already snowing heavily in NC, so it was a white knuckle ride for about 3 hours before we outran the storm by the time we got to about Henderson, NC. Got home around 7 am, played soccer at 8 am, napped for a couple of hours and settled in for possibly my favorite storm ever, given the tracking and driving fun, lol (we got 23-24"). Can we get a kind of repeat? In a remarkable turn of events, every major model is now showing a significant (3-6") to major (6-12") snowfall for just about the entire Philly to Boston corridor, with historic snowfall amounts of over a foot possible from about Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Lesser amounts look likely well N/W of the Delaware River and to the SW of Philly (i.e., Balt/DC); some mixing of rain/sleet is also possible along the South Jersey coast and eastern Long Island, but that would only cut down on snowfall a little bit (in fact, LI may end up being the jackpot with 1-2 feet of snow, if this all pans out). I'm not even going to try to explain any of this, since this is nearly unprecedented and I think a couple of quotes (see the 2nd link from American Weather - around pages 23-28) from some well-known pros will say far more than I can. First, here's what Hurricane Schwartz, a very well known TV met in Philly said on the American Weather board (the one that replaced the Eastern Weather board) just prior to going on air tonight: "I'll be on at 11 with a First Call. I'm still confused, but have to go with something. We just can't ignore this new 00z data." Basically his way of throwing up his hands and saying he really has no clue what to tell people given the model mayhem over the previous day (this was before the results from the UKMET and Euro models had come out late tonight, showing these models now coming into agreement with the GFS, Canadian and NAM models). Second, here's what Craig Allen, another well respected pro on TV/radio in NYC just posted: ** Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 0z RGEM is also further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 To me, the 0Z NAM at 12Z Saturday, looks kind of like the 0Z Euro from last night (the last bomb for DC to Boston) at 06 Saturday, 6 hours earlier, i.e., just 12 hours slower (and with lighter precip). And that's just looking at the outcome at the surface without analyzing the upper air - is it possible the next 18 hours of this NAM run would've progressed similarlly to that Euro run, at least with regard to track, if not intensity? Things are at least interesting again... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: To me, the 0Z NAM at 12Z Saturday, looks kind of like the 0Z Euro from last night (the last bomb for DC to Boston) at 06 Saturday, 6 hours earlier, i.e., just 12 hours slower (and with lighter precip). And that's just looking at the outcome at the surface without analyzing the upper air - is it possible the next 18 hours of this NAM run would've progressed similarlly to that Euro run, at least with regard to track, if not intensity? Things are at least interesting again... No, not possible. You can see the difference in the sharpness of the thickness lines over TN and KY. On the Euro, the precipitation shield is NW into southern OH and the storm is moving NE. On the NAM the precipitation shield is further SE and the storm is sliding ENE. H5 is not sharp enough on the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 GFS is much improved 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS is much improved I'd call that a minor change in the right direction. The southern-most vortmax is still on the wrong - upstream side, and the primary shortwave trof is not sharp or amplified enough. This won't get it done, even for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: I'd call that a minor change in the right direction. The southern-most vortmax is still on the wrong - upstream side, and the primary shortwave trof is not sharp or amplified enough. This won't get it done, even for DC. the end result isn’t a hit, but this is as much of a positive change as you can really see inside of five days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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