wdrag Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 I've looked at this through the 18z/17 cycle.: I think some snow is coming for us in this 4day window but no certitude. The GEFS/GFS is very dry for us in this 4a day window as opposed to the EPS which has a nice 850 MB Low and snowstorm from near ATL through the East Coast to New England. Let's keep monitoring. There two short waves. The first is the coastal low snow event 21/22, the second around the 24th (cold front and wave of low pressure?) should drop a substantial cold shot behind it. More tomorrow morning. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18z eps 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro not budging. Eps looks even better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Wow decent shift west What a big solution on the eps 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Wow decent shift west What a big solution on the eps Thats a foot plus if played out like this. Like to see the gfs move toward this solution even if not fully. Potential is there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 0z NAM continues to be in for the Thursday 1/20 anafront event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Yeah just echoing what's already been said. 18z EC looked as good or better than 12z. EPS the same. So far so good. We don't want a meeting in the middle. We want a full shift to the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Yeah just echoing what's already been said. 18z EC looked as good or better than 12z. EPS the same. So far so good. We don't want a meeting in the middle. We want a full shift to the Euro Nam looked better upstairs. Looked more euro like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 0z NAM continues to be in for the Thursday 1/20 anafront event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The EPS mean QPF is unusually wet for a 4 day lead time. The individual members are locked in for a major east coast low. It's a pretty great look for us. But there are also a lot of tucked, warm, wet solutions mixed in there. That's gotta be a good thing with all other guidance well offshore, but it does once again highlight the potential for this thing to swing a bit inland once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Would be a nice way to finish the day with GFS clearly trending towards euro - potential storm is in the 4/5 day range - they should start to converge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Central NJ jackpot lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I need good weather on the 20th and 24th. I fly out of NYC on the 20th, and back in on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Wannabehippie said: I need good weather on the 20th and 24th. I fly out of NYC on the 20th, and back in on the 24th. Going to Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gfs increased amounts for Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The RGEM was not going to get it done. It was a little flatter than 18z. Same with the ICON. The CMC will match the RGEM. For now, the EC has no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gfs is trending to the euro here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gfs took a step toward euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 At 78 the GFS is more amped in the Gulf Coast but its not going to come all the way this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS definitely going to be better this run based on H5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: At 78 the GFS is more amped in the Gulf Coast but its not going to come all the way this run Not expecting it to in one run. If euro looks the same in 2 hrs. Might be onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS coming west, agree won't be all this way this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Big difference at h5 compared to 18z It's not even close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The GFS looks closer to recent UK and CMC runs now. It's in the ballpark. We needed this at minimum tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Big difference at h5 compared to 18z It's not even close Yep. Will the king regain the throne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Mixing could eventually be an issue however the strong Arctic high north will make it very difficult for us to see anything but frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Mixing could eventually be an issue however the strong Arctic high north will make it very difficult for us to see anything but frozen. Lets get the models to agree on a storm, then we can worry about mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Mixing could eventually be an issue however the strong Arctic high north will make it very difficult for us to see anything but frozen. If mixing becomes an issue, the H will be modeled in a different place than it is currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ukie is looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 CMC about the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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