Franklin0529 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, Jt17 said: Thank you.. good spot to be 4.5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Strong heights offshore, tons of baroclinic energy. Arctic mass seeding the area. Could be a recipe for something really good. Yup. Definitely like the looks of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Wave Train Deluxe https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html#us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, Doorman said: Wave Train Deluxe https://psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html#us Fun times coming up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Fun times coming up!! Depends on where that boundary sets up. It could be a bit offshore or south of the area. So either it'll be great for snowlovers here or incredibly frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Thats a real nice looking setup for 120 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The fact that the NAM has the Anafrontal snow but it's setup at end of run is bad tells me to root against the Anafront event. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z eps for Saturday 00z for comparison 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: 12z eps for Saturday 00z for comparison Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 It would make me feel a little more confident if the gfs came on board but it's not crucial at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It would make me feel a little more confident if the gfs came on board but it's not crucial at this stage. It would make me LESS confident if the GFS was on board..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Looking good There's a lot going on at 500mb. Would love to see the euro hold and get some other guidance on board. Or at least start to. That was an improvement on the eps, so that's good. Would like to see the gfs come around at least somewhat to the euro idea in coming days. Cautiously watching. Following ensemble trends for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Even a coastal hugger is probably a sleetstorm, this airmass is even colder than yesterdays I think and we saw how the storm yesterday overperformed even cutting inland. Look how far SE the Euro has snow/sleet even with a track near the BM. Millenium storm Dec 2000 was all snow here on western long island even though the low cut just west of Islip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hey how much fell there and up by where I live? I'll be going there next week and I wonder if I need to hire a snow plow guy. The last one I had dented my garage with his plow. He said there was so much snow he couldn't see where my garage was. I received 3.7” here. I would recommend you arrange for a plow guy. There was probably in the range of 6” where you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, Tatamy said: I received 3.7” here. I would recommend you arrange for a plow guy. There was probably in the range of 6” where you are. I'm especially worried because it went from snow to freezing rain and then back to snow....which means it will be an exceptionally heavy snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm especially worried because it went from snow to freezing rain and then back to snow....which means it will be an exceptionally heavy snowpack. That is a hard pack that wont be melting anytime soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It would make me LESS confident if the GFS was on board..... lol the gfs hasn't been that bad lately..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 FWIW the icon moved towards the euro idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: FWIW the icon moved towards the euro idea Icon is shifting west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: lol the gfs hasn't been that bad lately..... Yeah but this is the exact type of event it always botches...anytime you're dealing with trying to eject a S/W out of Texas or the Gulf in a pressing arctic air mass the GFS buries the wave in Mexico or the Gulf 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah but this is the exact type of event it always botches...anytime you're dealing with trying to eject a S/W out of Texas or the Gulf in a pressing arctic air mass the GFS buries the wave in Mexico or the Gulf It did well with the last storm which was also a Miller A coming up but this one is further east so I get it's different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Depends on where that boundary sets up. It could be a bit offshore or south of the area. So either it'll be great for snowlovers here or incredibly frustrating. Tbh, given the SSTs and artic cold behind the front.. I would place the boundary closer, rather than farther, to the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: FWIW the icon moved towards the euro idea It doesn't look like that to me at H5. On the ICON, the southern stream wave never really makes it to the downstream side of the trof to start bending the height lines northeastward in the Gulf coast states. The 18z still looks more like the UK or even GFS to me than the Euro. The ICON still needs a lot of work. The surface map is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 12z eps for Saturday 00z for comparison Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, snowman19 said: Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one Yes which means this is easier to track for this area.....much less to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes which means this is easier to track for this area.....much less to worry about. Being on the northern fringe can be equally painful to track...... Hopefully its far enough NW where the city is not on the NW edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Being on the northern fringe can be equally painful to track...... Hopefully its far enough NW where the city is not on the NW edge. Hopefully that trend works out.... NW trends are more likely than SE ones in the majority of cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hopefully that trend works out.... NW trends are more likely than SE ones in the majority of cases. Also have to think about the pattern. Right now I'd take my chances with amped over surpressed. Normally I wouldn't say that anywhere near the coast but this cold air in the next few weeks is strong. Of course it depends a bit on Location, overamped got me an inch yesterday the ACY blizzard I didn't see a flake. However I realize for places like South Shore of LI and NJ coast it was the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one I certainly like the spot it's in currently. Long ways to go yet. There was a time that the last one was thought of as OTS. I don't trust anything Euro included. It'll be interesting to see what guidance does tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Don't think this gfs run will get it done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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