eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The CMC has moved away from this kind of solution for the past several cycles. The UK has also trended slightly in the wrong direction IMO. The GFS is not really close and not showing positive signs. We really need to see some movement towards the EC (at least among the ensembles) to allow ourselves to begin getting excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The CMC has moved away from this kind of solution for the past several cycles. The UK has also trended slightly in the wrong direction IMO. The GFS is not really close and not showing positive signs. We really need to see some movement towards the EC (at least among the ensembles) to allow ourselves to begin getting excited. Cmc is really close along with the geps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Artic floodgates open after the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Sigh, verbatim that's a simple lovely cold snowstorm that literally makes everybody happy. Only 5 days away, so these runs start to have some merit to them. Hopefully GFS starts to trend towards the Euro! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, eduggs said: I-95 bullseye. Major snowstorm on the EC. IMO need to get the best model the last few weeks and its ensembles on board for this event and multiple runs of consistency. Notice the Euro is not jumping onboard for the Thursday period of snow while the GFS has been consistent with it run to run - lets see how that works out .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Sigh, verbatim that's a simple lovely cold snowstorm that literally makes everybody happy. Only 5 days away, so these runs start to have some merit to them. Hopefully GFS starts to trend towards the Euro!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO need to get the best model the last few weeks and its ensembles on board for this event and multiple runs of consistency. Notice the Euro is not jumping onboard for the Thursday period of snow while the GFS has been consistent with it run to run - lets see how that works out .... Monitoring Thursday for a 1-3" thread LI/NYC but no action at this time. There NAM has to start backing off. If it continues the 12z/17 cycle for the 06z/18..I'll start the thread. I have more confidence in Thursday being a hit than Fri-Sat which I'm pretty sure will happen along the East Coast, but not sure if it strikes here or mid-Atlantic states southward. At least 12z/17 OP EC Run was north of 00z. Have not looked at everything and won't have til about 8 tonight. 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO need to get the best model the last few weeks and its ensembles on board for this event and multiple runs of consistency. Notice the Euro is not jumping onboard for the Thursday period of snow while the GFS has been consistent with it run to run - lets see how that works out .... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, North and West said: . With the Kuchera ratio applied this would be 10 - 18” across the area. In addition, FWIW, the Ukmet is buying into the Ana frontal event for Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The EC starts snow in NYC by midnight Friday night. That's 106 hours out. And the trof that delivers the storm to us is in position by 90 hours. So this is not so long range. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 With the Kuchera ratio applied this would be 10 - 18” across the area. In addition, FWIW, the Ukmet is buying into the Ana frontal event for Thursday.As I was shoveling out slush today, I reminded myself I loved this when I was younger and that my kids do, too.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: The EC starts snow in NYC by midnight Friday night. That's 106 hours out. And the trof that delivers the storm to us is in position by 90 hours. So this is not so long range. I think we'll have a good idea which way this one is going to go in by tomorrow night or Wed. morning. The models have been extremely inconsistent in the medium range so I wouldn't put too much trust in the ECMWF, the only model so far really showing a hit up here. It would make some sense that locations to our south have a better chance of being hit by this snowstorm because the flow is a hair flatter than this passed week and there's actually a banana HP to our north/west in a pretty good position for snow. But how far north up the coast this storm makes it will probably be the question at hand the next 2-3 days. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO need to get the best model the last few weeks and its ensembles on board for this event and multiple runs of consistency. Notice the Euro is not jumping onboard for the Thursday period of snow while the GFS has been consistent with it run to run - lets see how that works out .... I sort of disagree. The Euro showing two straight runs with a hit at this range is a very good sign. I am not sure when the gfs became the best model but either way the fact it runs four times a day leaves more room for variation. Yesterday the gfs basically lost this storm entirely on some runs and was showing a bomb on Monday on some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think we'll have a good idea which way this one is going to go in by tomorrow night or Wed. morning. The models have been extremely inconsistent in the medium range so I wouldn't put too much trust in the ECMWF, the only model so far really showing a hit up here. It would make some sense that locations to our south have a better chance of being hit by this snowstorm because the flow is a hair flatter than this passed week and there's actually a banana HP to our north/west in a pretty good position for snow. But how far north up the coast this storm makes it will probably be the question at hand the next 2-3 days. WX/PT Precip type not really a concern unless this cuts inland like yesterday which is doubtful. It's so cold we could probably survive a track inside the BM so at this point its really mostly a hit or no hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Precip type not really a concern unless this cuts inland like yesterday which is doubtful. It's so cold we could probably survive a track inside the BM so at this point its really mostly a hit or no hit. I'm more worried about a coastal hugger given the lack of a negative nao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm more worried about a coastal hugger given the lack of a negative nao. Even a coastal hugger is probably a sleetstorm, this airmass is even colder than yesterdays I think and we saw how the storm yesterday overperformed even cutting inland. Look how far SE the Euro has snow/sleet even with a track near the BM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The low on the Euro stalls in a great spot and temps in low 20s throughout storm so agree totals would be higher than those 10:1 maps even show verbatim. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The low on the Euro stalls in a great spot and temps in low 20s throughout storm so agree totals would be higher than those 10:1 maps even show verbatim. Temps after the storm are brutally cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Temps after the storm are brutally cold. Lets hope we get a hit because those temps on bare ground would be so depressing imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I never trust the CMC/GFS is these scenarios with the arctic high elongated down into the Gulf when you're relying on some sort ejecting wave...they are predominantly better models with northern stream systems. The Euro almost always ends up winning these in this range, even during its years of sucking recently after that upgrade 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, North and West said: As I was shoveling out slush today, I reminded myself I loved this when I was younger and that my kids do, too. . I had to remind myself of that as well when I was doing my shoveling. I had to put down two bags of ice melt as well as the predicted warmer temperatures for the overnight period never came to be. We had plenty of rain though but the ice held up just fine. And to think that a lot of people lamented getting no snow or very little last night. Oh well. It looks like those who did not see snow of any significance last night will get their chance as we go through the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I had to remind myself of that as well when I was doing my shoveling. I had to put down two bags of ice melt as well as the predicted warmer temperatures for the overnight period never came to be. We had plenty of rain though but the ice held up just fine. And to think that a lot of people lamented getting no snow or very little last night. Oh well. It looks like those who did not see snow of any significance last night will get their chance as we go through the week. Hey how much fell there and up by where I live? I'll be going there next week and I wonder if I need to hire a snow plow guy. The last one I had dented my garage with his plow. He said there was so much snow he couldn't see where my garage was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The low on the Euro stalls in a great spot and temps in low 20s throughout storm so agree totals would be higher than those 10:1 maps even show verbatim. it's very hard to get ratios above 12:1 in high wind long duration storms. Hey, if we get 2" of crystallized water out of this, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Hate being in the bullseye this far out. Would love to see the gfs move to this idea. Gfs been schooling the euro this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 EXTRAPOLATION..... https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Do u got eps for Friday/Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: After the NAM’s horrible performance with this storm, I wouldn’t get my hopes too high for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: After the NAM’s horrible performance with this storm, I wouldn’t get my hopes too high for this Its out of range too. I am not sure if this is the right thinking but I actually am sort of hoping this gets squashed because I think it may allow the next system to come more up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Do u got eps for Friday/Saturday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Strong heights offshore, tons of baroclinic energy. Arctic mass seeding the area. Could be a recipe for something really good. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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