wdrag Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Modeling is favoring the development of some sort of extensive precipitation event along the east coast, with either the first or second of two short waves carving a pretty deep, albeit temporary 500MB trough in the eastern USA between next Friday and Monday. At least until Tuesday the 18th when the results of the 16th-17th are in, lets hold off on single model solution hype. Three graphics added, two from the 08z/16 WPC issuance. Low prob 3+" of snow, and the third was the CPC D8-14 hazard graphic, it paints a small chance of heavy snow just north of I-80 again (just like this 16th-17th event). It also ,not shown here,has a high chance of very cold air here 22nd-28th. 7AM/18 Update: I've updated the thread title-no guarantees our NYC subforum will share in what is coming to the Demarva-Carolinas but it seems models are gravitating to a decent snowstorm for a portion of the mid Atlantic and possibly through southern NYS-southern New England. 718A/21: Changed thread title to add part one was about 150mi too far southeast (slightly less average error for a D5 forecast than NHC on tropical systems). Withdrew wind from the tag. Otherwise the overall intent of the thread remains the same. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS still has no interest in next weekend but honestly I'd rather the models leaning east at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS has something for Monday the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, SHELEG said: GFS has something for Monday the 24th. Yes what a bomb on the 24th. So now every model is showing some kind of bomb between the 22nd and 24th timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12Z GFS says yes but a day later 12Z CMC says yes 12Z Euro says no Going to be a long week of model tracking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 12Z GFS says yes but a day later 12Z CMC says yes 12Z Euro says no Going to be a long week of model tracking Hopefully we all get the result we want this time around 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Even if a miss...it's better than December; WAYYYYY better. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 My last on this til tomorrow or Tuesday morning sometime. Please see the attached from our National Center. Something lurks... how it works??? Let's realize it can go bad. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: 12Z GFS says yes but a day later 12Z CMC says yes 12Z Euro says no Going to be a long week of model tracking Amazing how the Euro went from snowmageddon to nosnowatall in one model run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Amazing how the Euro went from snowmageddon to nosnowatall in one model run, lolNot sure if this is the right thread for this, but this has to be one of the issues (of many) that people don’t take global warming seriously enough; the short term models change radically run over run, and people see that on their phones. (Yes, I know that they’re two very different spatial scales, but I don’t think the average person thinks about that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS has the Monday storm on the 24th again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, North and West said: Not sure if this is the right thread for this, but this has to be one of the issues (of many) that people don’t take global warming seriously enough; the short term models change radically run over run, and people see that on their phones. (Yes, I know that they’re two very different spatial scales, but I don’t think the average person thinks about that) . This isn't short term models, this is 5+ days out so I'd expect things to look vastly different run to run. The storm we are having today was actually rare where the models kind of all agreed at 6 days and stuck with the solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 This isn't short term models, this is 5+ days out so I'd expect things to look vastly different run to run. The storm we are having today was actually rare where the models kind of all agreed at 6 days and stuck with the solution. Thank you - I appreciate the explanation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 00z GFS looks like it lost the Sunday Night/Monday solution, but brought back the Friday Night/Saturday idea with a close(ish) miss to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, Jt17 said: 00z GFS looks like it lost the Sunday Night/Monday solution, but brought back the Friday Night/Saturday idea with a close(ish) miss to the SE Yep CMC also has the Friday Night/Saturday storm but also a close miss to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 00z suite including Euro have storm again for Saturday, Euro just misses with something nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 I won't post the ensembles...but it seems they are gravitating to an event from ATL to our area 21st-22nd via the 00z/17 cycle. Meanwhile WPC ensembles backed off to 10-20% prob, but that is prior to the 00z/17 ensemble cycle. LOTS of uncertainty. Won't post on this again til this Monday evening, especially with ongoing storminess. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: This isn't short term models, this is 5+ days out so I'd expect things to look vastly different run to run. The storm we are having today was actually rare where the models kind of all agreed at 6 days and stuck with the solution. funny that when they agree on a rainstorm 5 days out it always seems to work out, but with snow? Noooooo NEVER! lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: funny that when they agree on a rainstorm 5 days out it always seems to work out, but with snow? Noooooo NEVER! lol Long past the time for the US to develop a new model... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 hours ago, wdrag said: I won't post the ensembles...but it seems they are gravitating to an event from ATL to our area 21st-22nd via the 00z/17 cycle. Meanwhile WPC ensembles backed off to 10-20% prob, but that is prior to the 00z/17 ensemble cycle. LOTS of uncertainty. Won't post on this again til this Monday evening, especially with ongoing storminess. This whole time period and now through the 26th is a big mystery the GFS insists on at least a period of snow here Thursday at least then the 26th something more significant I know I am only just showing 1 model but the GFS has been leading the parade all month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Even if so, question is still where this exactly sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 CMC, GFS both kind of close but OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: CMC, GFS both kind of close but OTS. CMC gets snow up to southern NJ friday night. Close. Will be interesting to see what Euro shows in a little while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The trend for the 22nd is to de-amplify and weaken the trof. I don't like seeing that. There are plenty more potential threats after that, but that's just more kicking of the can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The EC is looking good through hr 90 at H5. It's pointless to give the play by play, but still fun for the excitement. I've seen enough from this run to be encouraged compared to other mid-range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, eduggs said: The EC is looking good through hr 90 at H5. It's pointless to give the play by play, but still fun for the excitement. I've seen enough from this run to be encouraged compared to other mid-range guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 That's a great Euro run for the entire mid-Atl and northeast coast. The trof is well aligned and sharper than last run. It's also narrow, with another significant trof right on its heels. So I could easily see this getting pinched off or not working out a bunch of different ways. But for now we see how this can work out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I-95 bullseye. Major snowstorm on the EC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Temps are in the low 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 High ratio snow so it would be more than 10:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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