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East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?


wdrag
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Modeling is favoring the development of some sort of extensive precipitation event along the east coast, with either the first or second of two short waves carving a pretty deep, albeit temporary 500MB trough in the eastern USA between next Friday and Monday. 

At least until Tuesday the 18th when the results of the 16th-17th are in, lets hold off on single model solution hype. 

Three graphics added, two from the 08z/16 WPC issuance.  Low prob 3+" of snow, and the third was the CPC D8-14 hazard graphic, it paints a small chance of heavy snow just north of I-80 again (just like this 16th-17th event). It also ,not shown here,has a high chance of very cold air here 22nd-28th. 

 

7AM/18 Update: I've updated the thread title-no guarantees our NYC subforum will share in what is coming to the Demarva-Carolinas but it seems models are gravitating to a decent snowstorm for a portion of the mid Atlantic and possibly through southern NYS-southern New England.

718A/21: Changed thread title to add part one was about 150mi too far southeast (slightly less average error for a D5 forecast than NHC on tropical systems). Withdrew wind from the tag. Otherwise the overall intent of the thread remains the same.

 

Screen Shot 2022-01-16 at 10.53.19 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-16 at 10.53.08 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-01-16 at 10.56.15 AM.png

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Amazing how the Euro went from snowmageddon to nosnowatall in one model run, lol

Not sure if this is the right thread for this, but this has to be one of the issues (of many) that people don’t take global warming seriously enough; the short term models change radically run over run, and people see that on their phones. (Yes, I know that they’re two very different spatial scales, but I don’t think the average person thinks about that)


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31 minutes ago, North and West said:


Not sure if this is the right thread for this, but this has to be one of the issues (of many) that people don’t take global warming seriously enough; the short term models change radically run over run, and people see that on their phones. (Yes, I know that they’re two very different spatial scales, but I don’t think the average person thinks about that)


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This isn't short term models, this is 5+ days out so I'd expect things to look vastly different run to run. The storm we are having today was actually rare where the models kind of all agreed at 6 days and stuck with the solution.  

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I won't post the ensembles...but it seems they are gravitating to an event from ATL to our area 21st-22nd via the 00z/17 cycle.  Meanwhile WPC ensembles backed off to 10-20% prob, but that is prior to the 00z/17 ensemble cycle. LOTS of uncertainty. Won't post on this again til this Monday evening, especially with ongoing storminess. 

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12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

This isn't short term models, this is 5+ days out so I'd expect things to look vastly different run to run. The storm we are having today was actually rare where the models kind of all agreed at 6 days and stuck with the solution.  

funny that when they agree on a rainstorm 5 days out it always seems to work out, but with snow? Noooooo NEVER! lol

 

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6 hours ago, wdrag said:

I won't post the ensembles...but it seems they are gravitating to an event from ATL to our area 21st-22nd via the 00z/17 cycle.  Meanwhile WPC ensembles backed off to 10-20% prob, but that is prior to the 00z/17 ensemble cycle. LOTS of uncertainty. Won't post on this again til this Monday evening, especially with ongoing storminess. 

This whole time period and now through  the 26th is a big mystery the GFS insists on at least a period of snow here Thursday at least then the 26th something more significant I know I am only just showing 1 model but the GFS has been leading the parade all monthgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

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That's a great Euro run for the entire mid-Atl and northeast coast. The trof is well aligned and sharper than last run. It's also narrow, with another significant trof right on its heels. So I could easily see this getting pinched off or not working out a bunch of different ways. But for now we see how this can work out very well.

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