OBS-NOWCAST for a multi impact main event 4PM today - 8A Monday Jan 16-17, 2022 with post storm minor snow accumulations possible Noon-Midnight Monday evening.

[snywx]

30 minutes ago, Doorman said:

You can clearly see where CAD is setting up in this pic

[terrapin8100]

Very light snow in Ossining. 27.5°

[mweisenfeld]

Snowing, grass covered, in Essex County NJ

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[wdrag]

HRDPS impressive I80 north.  watch it if Thunder snow gets going up here along the NYS-PA border. I  like its colder scenario but I'll defer to the fact that I may in error. Am expecting snow thru midnight in Sussex County NJ and possibly back and forth mix rain/snow to S+ between 1A-3A. 

[wdrag]

You will hang on. I cant see it a move freezing there prior to 2 or 3A. 

[lee59]

Few flakes starting here 32.7 degrees.

[donsutherland1]

Snow flurries in Larchmont, NY.

[NorthShoreWx]

Hanging on to 31 here for the moment.  If you are lucky enough to be close to freezing when the precip starts on LI, it will be snow.  There is no warm nose of consequence for us as the first layer to go above freezing will be right at the surface and that will then proceed higher into the atmosphere (assuming the 3k NAM soundings are correct).  Rest assured it will torch, but no sleet here based on the above; just a little snow to rain.

[MJO812]

I can see an inch here if it continues 

[RU848789]

As of 7 pm, we have a whole 1/4" of snow and intensity has increased to moderate - may get the 1" of snow before the changeover, as it's still 28F and above freezing temps and sleet still look to be 20 miles SE of me.  

Anyone know what happened to the old Sacrus tracking images thread?  Used to love that thing...

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I can see an inch here if it continues 

But how could that be? 18z nam and all. 

[lee59]

33 degrees with snow. Light coating on cars and sidewalks only because it has been so cold every flake is sticking.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I can see an inch here if it continues 

This might be a stretch but this could dump 1-3 in parts of the 5 boroughs if the coastal front could hold off but thats a huge if, theres no real issues with upper levels for a few hours.   

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 0.1" new snow since 630P. temp down a degree to 18. dew point 13. NE wind.

[eduggs]

19 minutes ago, snywx said:

You can clearly see where CAD is setting up in this pic

Sussex and maybe northern Passaic in NJ as well as Orange and maybe northern Rockland in NY should hold pretty long tonight. It looks like anybody southeast of the higher terrain in Morris County NJ will succumb to the warming. There's a pretty strong temp gradient right now across this area.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 0.1" new snow since 630P. temp down a degree to 18. dew point 13. NE wind.

That's impressive surface cold up there! Much different east of I-287 or south of I-80.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 here. Nothing yet. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

21/8 and cloudy. First flakes about an hour away. 

[HVSnowLover]

Wind driven snow right now, sticking to all surfaces. 

[Cfa]

38 here. Radar + mPING showing snow just to the west of me.

[Nibor]

Light to moderate snow here. About half an inch on the ground. Once the change over happens I’ll be paying attention to the wind. 

[lee59]

Still snowing here with a coating on everything including the street. 33 degrees

[hooralph]

Enjoyed the gorgeous night snow and brief moment of zen before changeover on the UWS. Riverside Dr. completely snow covered.

 

 

[wdrag]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That's impressive surface cold up there! Much different east of I-287 or south of I-80.

I think pressure fall center near the sfc low will keep winds light ne thru midnight up here (iassalobaric gradient) and am not convinced we scour out aa above 32F prior to 4AM. Also HRDPS, HRRR and ECMWF are pounding snow up here in northern Sussex County northward Mid-3A. Amounts are probably too high in mxd precip but what I think is occuring is a fast occlusion with the upper low casting across our area 12z Monday ONLY briefly allowing 4 hour intrusion of warm air before its cold enough to snow again as the upper low shoots newd overhead. Poconos-catskills, Litchfield Hills may only see 3 hours of mxd precip at most. 18z EC amounts probably have a high mix bias but they are near a foot Poconos newd. I'll take a stab at more like 10" for reality KMPO northeastward. 

[tdp146]

Rain here. 35 degrees. It was 7 degrees 12 hours ago. 

[wdrag]

On Wind: 18z EC makes a run at the s Coast of Li but I think OKX has it right on big wind e LI.  I could be wrong but am respecting raw guidance. I have nothing in arsenal to improve on that. 

[lee59]

still snow here and the temperature has actually dropped a half degree to 32.5

[psv88]

32.8 and snowing NW suffolk

[Sampson]

Coating on all surfaces in Manhasset. Still snow as of now. 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think pressure fall center near the sfc low will keep winds light ne thru midnight up here (iassalobaric gradient) and am not convinced we scour out aa above 32F prior to 4AM. Also HRDPS, HRRR and ECMWF are pounding snow up here in northern Sussex County northward Mid-3A. Amounts are probably too high in mxd precip but what I think is occuring is a fast occlusion with the upper low casting across our area 12z Monday ONLY briefly allowing 4 hour intrusion of warm air before its cold enough to snow again as the upper low shoots newd overhead. Poconos-catskills, Litchfield Hills may only see 3 hours of mxd precip at most. 18z EC amounts probably have a high mix bias but they are near a foot Poconos newd. I'll take a stab at more like 10" for reality KMPO northeastward. 

I agree with you, I think I84 is going to overperform. Precip is just racing. Hope it stays snow and doesn't flip to sleet quick up there.