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OBS-NOWCAST for a multi impact main event 4PM today - 8A Monday Jan 16-17, 2022 with post storm minor snow accumulations possible Noon-Midnight Monday evening.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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BxSnowWx37
BxSnowWx37

This is def trending south and east a bit. Its probably gonna go over nyc or just east at its current trajectory. That high pressure is really strong and really doesn't wanna budge.  Currently 31f and

wdrag
wdrag

Please follow National Weather Service warnings/statements.   Starting from another 10 degree morning in NYC, a rapidly changing weather scenario will  cause some power outages, accidents (despit

HeadInTheClouds
HeadInTheClouds

Snowman should be making an appearance to tell us how the 00z nam is a torch and it's going to rain shortly. 

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted

Yep waterspouts if they come ashore or close we’re gonna get some of those incredible wind gust models have been showing

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
Special Marine Warning    
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ    
1253 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022    
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a    
* Special Marine Warning for...    
  Coastal and outer waters from Sandy Hook to Little Egg Inlet NJ...    
* Until 230 AM EST.    
* At 1252 AM EST, severe thunderstorms capable of producing    
  waterspouts were located along a line extending from near Great Egg    

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Yep waterspouts if they come ashore or close we’re gonna get some of those incredible wind gust models have been showing

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
Special Marine Warning    
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ    
1253 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022    
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a    
* Special Marine Warning for...    
  Coastal and outer waters from Sandy Hook to Little Egg Inlet NJ...    
* Until 230 AM EST.    
* At 1252 AM EST, severe thunderstorms capable of producing    
  waterspouts were located along a line extending from near Great Egg    

No good. 

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted

You def don’t see this everyday in January

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
Severe Thunderstorm Warning    
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ    
118 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022    
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a    
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...    
  Ocean County in southern New Jersey...    
* Until 200 AM EST.    
* At 118 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of    
  Surf City, or 19 miles northeast of Atlantic City, moving north at    
  55 mph.    
  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.    

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

You def don’t see this everyday in January

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
Severe Thunderstorm Warning    
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ    
118 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022    
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a    
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...    
  Ocean County in southern New Jersey...    
* Until 200 AM EST.    
* At 118 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of    
  Surf City, or 19 miles northeast of Atlantic City, moving north at    
  55 mph.    
  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.    

Thats nuts and it's still snowing by me. 

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted

Latest 1AM OKX AFD: 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The latest surface obs and dual pol indicate snow/wintry mix 
has changed to rain for NYC/NJ metro and coast, with transition
expected to work north through the interior overnight as 
increasing E-SE flow should overwhelm any linger colder air, 
taking until perhaps 3 to 4 am across Orange County. 

Some locations received just under an inch before the snow 
changed to rain in portions of the NYC metro and CT coast.
Seeing as much as 3 inches across interior portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley based on NYC mesonet, with snowfall rates
exceeding 1" hr. Most areas north of I-287 and the Merritt Pkwy
will see at least 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulation plus a 
light glaze of ice, with Orange and W Passaic seeing as much as 
4-6 inches of snow especially in the higher elevations, and a
few hundredths of an inch of ice.

A very tight pres gradient between the sfc low and retreating 
high pressure out over the Atlantic, and strong upper 
divergence/lift ahead of a negatively-tilted closed low lifting 
through the Mid Atlantic region, will produce a band of strong
winds and heavy rain between 2 am and 7am from SW to NE. Cant 
rule out some embedded thunder for LI as well, as noted off the
S Jersey coast, as of 1am. E Long Island and coastal SE CT 
should see a pd of sustained winds 40-45 mph with gusts 60-65 
mph, with areas to the west (mainly coastal SW CT, western Long 
Island, and NYC) seeing winds just shy of those values, 
sustained 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph. 

Temps overnight should rise to the upper 40s in the NYC metro 
area and along the coast, and to the upper 30s/lower 40s inland,
except lower to mid 30s far NW areas.
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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Latest 1AM OKX AFD: 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The latest surface obs and dual pol indicate snow/wintry mix 
has changed to rain for NYC/NJ metro and coast, with transition
expected to work north through the interior overnight as 
increasing E-SE flow should overwhelm any linger colder air, 
taking until perhaps 3 to 4 am across Orange County. 

Some locations received just under an inch before the snow 
changed to rain in portions of the NYC metro and CT coast.
Seeing as much as 3 inches across interior portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley based on NYC mesonet, with snowfall rates
exceeding 1" hr. Most areas north of I-287 and the Merritt Pkwy
will see at least 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulation plus a 
light glaze of ice, with Orange and W Passaic seeing as much as 
4-6 inches of snow especially in the higher elevations, and a
few hundredths of an inch of ice.

A very tight pres gradient between the sfc low and retreating 
high pressure out over the Atlantic, and strong upper 
divergence/lift ahead of a negatively-tilted closed low lifting 
through the Mid Atlantic region, will produce a band of strong
winds and heavy rain between 2 am and 7am from SW to NE. Cant 
rule out some embedded thunder for LI as well, as noted off the
S Jersey coast, as of 1am. E Long Island and coastal SE CT 
should see a pd of sustained winds 40-45 mph with gusts 60-65 
mph, with areas to the west (mainly coastal SW CT, western Long 
Island, and NYC) seeing winds just shy of those values, 
sustained 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph. 

Temps overnight should rise to the upper 40s in the NYC metro 
area and along the coast, and to the upper 30s/lower 40s inland,
except lower to mid 30s far NW areas.

If you look at radar you could make a case those strong winds are gonna come right into the boroughs as well

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
Posted

Just went out for final measurement of the night. I'm now about 10 miles north of the changeover line so it was now or never.

29° with heavy snow, 4.8 inches so far, looks like I will make 5 and a little over.

The HRRR nailed this , at least so far, for my location Highland Mills in Orange County

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Past 3 hours of data:  Wind gusts:

KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [50kt, 26m/s]

stations reporting wind gusts 40-49kt

KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KGED: Georgetown, Sussex County Airport, DE, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KGVL: Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KLVM: Livingston, Mission Field Airport, MT, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KMUI: Muir/Indiantown, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KNHK: Patuxent River, Naval Air Stn, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KORF: Norfolk, Norfolk Intl Arpt, VA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KOXB: Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KPDK: Atlanta, De Kalb-Peachtree Airport, GA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KPHF: Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KSBY: Salisbury, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KTGI: Tangier Island, VA, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KTHV: York, York Airport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KTNB: Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States [46kt, 24m/s]

KWAL: Wallops Island, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KWWD: Wildwood, NJ, United States [49kt, 25m/s]

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