OBS-NOWCAST for a multi impact main event 4PM today - 8A Monday Jan 16-17, 2022 with post storm minor snow accumulations possible Noon-Midnight Monday evening.

[sussexcountyobs]

At 12:53 am just measured 4" of snow. Moderate snow falling. Flakes getting bigger. I think it will mix very soon. 

[nycsnow]

Yep waterspouts if they come ashore or close we’re gonna get some of those incredible wind gust models have been showing

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
Special Marine Warning    
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ    
1253 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022    
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a    
* Special Marine Warning for...    
  Coastal and outer waters from Sandy Hook to Little Egg Inlet NJ...    
* Until 230 AM EST.    
* At 1252 AM EST, severe thunderstorms capable of producing    
  waterspouts were located along a line extending from near Great Egg    

[rgwp96]

12 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Measured 3.5" at 11:30 and it was still coming down.

4.3 now rain 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Yep waterspouts if they come ashore or close we’re gonna get some of those incredible wind gust models have been showing

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
Special Marine Warning    
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ    
1253 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022    
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a    
* Special Marine Warning for...    
  Coastal and outer waters from Sandy Hook to Little Egg Inlet NJ...    
* Until 230 AM EST.    
* At 1252 AM EST, severe thunderstorms capable of producing    
  waterspouts were located along a line extending from near Great Egg    

No good. 

[weathermedic]

Jones Beach Davis station gusted to 51 mph at 1240am

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Jones Beach Davis station gusted to 51 mph at 1240am

60mph at Manhattan beach one 

[weathermedic]

Lightning showing up on radar east of Atlantic City.

[HeadInTheClouds]

25 with moderate snow, about 3 otg. 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Waterspout signature headed my way in Manahawkin 

[nycsnow]

Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Waterspout signature headed my way in Manahawkin 

Let us know how winds are curious to see if some of these big numbers mix down 

[sussexcountyobs]

At 1:15 am Snow / sleet mix falling. Measured 4.25"  32°

[nycsnow]

You def don’t see this everyday in January

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
Severe Thunderstorm Warning    
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ    
118 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022    
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a    
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...    
  Ocean County in southern New Jersey...    
* Until 200 AM EST.    
* At 118 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of    
  Surf City, or 19 miles northeast of Atlantic City, moving north at    
  55 mph.    
  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.    

[gravitylover]

28° with heavy snow mixed with sleet and rain falling sideways. Yuck...

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

You def don’t see this everyday in January

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    
Severe Thunderstorm Warning    
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ    
118 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022    
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a    
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...    
  Ocean County in southern New Jersey...    
* Until 200 AM EST.    
* At 118 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of    
  Surf City, or 19 miles northeast of Atlantic City, moving north at    
  55 mph.    
  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.    

Thats nuts and it's still snowing by me. 

[weathermedic]

Latest 1AM OKX AFD:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The latest surface obs and dual pol indicate snow/wintry mix 
has changed to rain for NYC/NJ metro and coast, with transition
expected to work north through the interior overnight as 
increasing E-SE flow should overwhelm any linger colder air, 
taking until perhaps 3 to 4 am across Orange County. 

Some locations received just under an inch before the snow 
changed to rain in portions of the NYC metro and CT coast.
Seeing as much as 3 inches across interior portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley based on NYC mesonet, with snowfall rates
exceeding 1" hr. Most areas north of I-287 and the Merritt Pkwy
will see at least 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulation plus a 
light glaze of ice, with Orange and W Passaic seeing as much as 
4-6 inches of snow especially in the higher elevations, and a
few hundredths of an inch of ice.

A very tight pres gradient between the sfc low and retreating 
high pressure out over the Atlantic, and strong upper 
divergence/lift ahead of a negatively-tilted closed low lifting 
through the Mid Atlantic region, will produce a band of strong
winds and heavy rain between 2 am and 7am from SW to NE. Cant 
rule out some embedded thunder for LI as well, as noted off the
S Jersey coast, as of 1am. E Long Island and coastal SE CT 
should see a pd of sustained winds 40-45 mph with gusts 60-65 
mph, with areas to the west (mainly coastal SW CT, western Long 
Island, and NYC) seeing winds just shy of those values, 
sustained 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph. 

Temps overnight should rise to the upper 40s in the NYC metro 
area and along the coast, and to the upper 30s/lower 40s inland,
except lower to mid 30s far NW areas.

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Latest 1AM OKX AFD:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The latest surface obs and dual pol indicate snow/wintry mix 
has changed to rain for NYC/NJ metro and coast, with transition
expected to work north through the interior overnight as 
increasing E-SE flow should overwhelm any linger colder air, 
taking until perhaps 3 to 4 am across Orange County. 

Some locations received just under an inch before the snow 
changed to rain in portions of the NYC metro and CT coast.
Seeing as much as 3 inches across interior portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley based on NYC mesonet, with snowfall rates
exceeding 1" hr. Most areas north of I-287 and the Merritt Pkwy
will see at least 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulation plus a 
light glaze of ice, with Orange and W Passaic seeing as much as 
4-6 inches of snow especially in the higher elevations, and a
few hundredths of an inch of ice.

A very tight pres gradient between the sfc low and retreating 
high pressure out over the Atlantic, and strong upper 
divergence/lift ahead of a negatively-tilted closed low lifting 
through the Mid Atlantic region, will produce a band of strong
winds and heavy rain between 2 am and 7am from SW to NE. Cant 
rule out some embedded thunder for LI as well, as noted off the
S Jersey coast, as of 1am. E Long Island and coastal SE CT 
should see a pd of sustained winds 40-45 mph with gusts 60-65 
mph, with areas to the west (mainly coastal SW CT, western Long 
Island, and NYC) seeing winds just shy of those values, 
sustained 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph. 

Temps overnight should rise to the upper 40s in the NYC metro 
area and along the coast, and to the upper 30s/lower 40s inland,
except lower to mid 30s far NW areas.

If you look at radar you could make a case those strong winds are gonna come right into the boroughs as well

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.33" of rain so far today. Storm total so far 1.04"

Current temp 43

[weathermedic]

They just shut the upper level of the Verrazano Bridge due to the wind.

[nycsnow]

Winds seem to be mixing down pretty good 

[Intensewind002]

Winds absolutely cranking right now had a gust to 47 mph and immediately after, one to 54 mph. Rainfall up to 0.32”

[SnoSki14]

Winds are howling right now

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ (this part) about 8 s of High Point. 4.8" of snow as of 120A with snow-sleet mix. 26F. 

[snywx]

26.6f w/ very heavy snow

5.8” otg

[wdrag]

Seaside Heights a peak easterly wind gust of 54 Knots at 1206AM. Source: Courtesy Weather Flow.  

[winterwx21]

Picked up 1 inch of snow here before it changed to rain. At least we got a little front end snow. Looked nice out there before the rain washed it away.

[nycsnow]

Just now, wdrag said:

Seaside Heights a peak easterly wind gust of 54 Knots at 1206AM. Source: Courtesy Weather Flow.  

Looks like some of these higher #s may verify impressive wind event for January 

[nycsnow]

Mesonet Manhattan beach Brooklyn 63mph!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just went out for final measurement of the night. I'm now about 10 miles north of the changeover line so it was now or never.

29° with heavy snow, 4.8 inches so far, looks like I will make 5 and a little over.

The HRRR nailed this , at least so far, for my location Highland Mills in Orange County

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Nothing to Crazy in Manahawkin but it looks like that cell strengthened over LBI Ana d Barnegat Light, would not be surprised if it dropped a waterspout or wind damage in that area: 

[wdrag]

Past 3 hours of data:  Wind gusts:

KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [50kt, 26m/s]

stations reporting wind gusts 40-49kt

KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KGED: Georgetown, Sussex County Airport, DE, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KGVL: Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KLVM: Livingston, Mission Field Airport, MT, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KMUI: Muir/Indiantown, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KNHK: Patuxent River, Naval Air Stn, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KORF: Norfolk, Norfolk Intl Arpt, VA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KOXB: Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KPDK: Atlanta, De Kalb-Peachtree Airport, GA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KPHF: Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Arpt, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KSBY: Salisbury, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KTGI: Tangier Island, VA, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KTHV: York, York Airport, PA, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KTNB: Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States [46kt, 24m/s]

KWAL: Wallops Island, VA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KWWD: Wildwood, NJ, United States [49kt, 25m/s]