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OBS-NOWCAST for a multi impact main event 4PM today - 8A Monday Jan 16-17, 2022 with post storm minor snow accumulations possible Noon-Midnight Monday evening.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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BxSnowWx37
BxSnowWx37

This is def trending south and east a bit. Its probably gonna go over nyc or just east at its current trajectory. That high pressure is really strong and really doesn't wanna budge.  Currently 31f and

wdrag
wdrag

Please follow National Weather Service warnings/statements.   Starting from another 10 degree morning in NYC, a rapidly changing weather scenario will  cause some power outages, accidents (despit

HeadInTheClouds
HeadInTheClouds

Snowman should be making an appearance to tell us how the 00z nam is a torch and it's going to rain shortly. 

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binbisso

binbisso

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:26 AM, NittanyWx said:

For the record, the HRRR has been showing this starting off as snow pretty much all afternoon...

 

Use the clown maps at your own risk.  But it's straight up false to say it didn't have this starting off as snow for an hour via the 21z run.

 

29/25.5 in Wilton, light snow.

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 It did have its starting as snow for the 1st hour less than  .1LE  So it didn't show on the clown maps.   However the 23Z shows  .15LE falling as snow.  I started snowing here at 6:30 still snowing moderately  now a little over a 1/2 inch so far probably gonna end up with 1 to 2".  Most models had me with nada including the uk GFS RGEM, gem and  regular nam.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Surface temps have looked pretty well-modeled to me, maybe even a touch too cold locally. It did seem like surface temps were a little colder than modeled today to our southwest in VA, MD, SEPA etc. Maybe the interior cold is better than modeled, but the coastal areas seem close to what was expected.

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:30 AM, NittanyWx said:

Depends on which model. Here's what the HRRR had this morning for right now:

image.png.57415162824ad6ee944914a508537cdf.png

 

I'm a big stickler on revisionist history in this field and will call it out every time.

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How much qpf did it have at this time? Temps look accurate but seems the precip came in a little earlier. 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:33 AM, binbisso said:

 It did have its starting as snow for the 1st hour less than  .1LE  So it didn't show on the clown maps.   However the 23Z shows  .15LE falling as snow.  I started snowing here at 6:30 still snowing moderately  now a little over a 1/2 inch so far probably gonna end up with 1 to 2".  Most models had me with nada including the uk GFS RGEM, gem and  regular nam.

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Yes this is how I am seeing things too. It started snow here almost two hours ago and has been basically all snow. 

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dWave

dWave

Posted
Posted

Now rain snow sleet mix here, bx.  Pictures I've seen in Manhattan and BK on social media look more impressive, don't know if they got under a heavier snow band or I'm too close to the Sound with a gusty E wind off of it, but I'd call it a trace here. 

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BxSnowWx37

BxSnowWx37

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:40 AM, dWave said:

Now rain snow sleet mix here, bx.  Pictures I've seen in Manhattan and BK on social media look more impressive, don't know if they got under a heavier snow band or I'm too close to the Sound with a gusty E wind off of it, but I'd call it a trace here. 

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I'm in the northwestern part of the bronx and it's a heavy coat of white over here and its still pure snow. :snowing:

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:11 AM, RU848789 said:

We have 1/2" as of 8:00 pm with continuing light to moderate snow, but it's now 31F and the radar shows the mix line almost at the Raritan, about 5-10 miles from me, so maybe another 30-60 minutes of snow?  Very slick out there, as all surfaces are covered, given how cold the ground was.  I imagine there could be some accidents out there if people weren't expecting any snow at all.  

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As of 8:45 pm, we have 3/4" of snow and it's 31F and it just changed to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain a few minutes ago, but as I was typing this post, it changed back to the heaviest snow I've seen so far.  No idea if it's just a few more minutes of this or not, but it's pretty wild out there, as it's also getting windy.  

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:45 AM, HeadInTheClouds said:

Snowman should be making an appearance to tell us how the 00z nam is a torch and it's going to rain shortly. 

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I mean I didnt like this setup at all tbh but the numbers speak for themselves its busting positive in DC, Philadelphia and NYC.  I can't tell you if it will bust positive up north because of the sleet factor.  

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:33 AM, binbisso said:

 It did have its starting as snow for the 1st hour less than  .1LE  So it didn't show on the clown maps.   However the 23Z shows  .15LE falling as snow.  I started snowing here at 6:30 still snowing moderately  now a little over a 1/2 inch so far probably gonna end up with 1 to 2".  Most models had me with nada including the uk GFS RGEM, gem and  regular nam.

Expand  

 

You were repsonding to a post of mine talking about the performance of the model with the coastal front.  From there went on about how the 21Z HRRR 'showed no snow', which is just flat out wrong.  It also kept Ptype as snow through 9pm, or roughly 2 hours.

LE may end up around 0.1", which is where the 21Z HRRR may end up underperforming.  If you would have said that, I would have agreed with you...

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:44 AM, RU848789 said:

As of 8:45 pm, we have 3/4" of snow and it's 31F and it just changed to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain a few minutes ago, but as I was typing this post, it changed back to the heaviest snow I've seen so far.  No idea if it's just a few more minutes of this or not, but it's pretty wild out there, as it's also getting windy.  

Expand  

Oh well, that snow only lasted a few minutes.  It's now up to 32F and mostly rain with a few flakes.  Calling it at 3/4" of snow, bringing me to 6.75" for the season.  Let's hope the pattern delivers for 95 in the next week or so...

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:49 AM, HVSnowLover said:

I mean I didnt like this setup at all tbh but the numbers speak for themselves its busting positive in DC, Philadelphia and NYC.  I can't tell you if it will bust positive up north because of the sleet factor.  

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I always expected 2-4 north of 84 IMBY. I think mixing holds off until 2-3am. I don't think we get more than 4. Downsloping in the valley will probably keep that from happening. Terrain is important with this storm. 

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2022 at 1:35 AM, HVSnowLover said:

How much qpf did it have at this time? Temps look accurate but seems the precip came in a little earlier. 

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Precip timing was fine at the 10z cycle, it has 0.1LE a little after 9 in the city and S Westchester closer to 10.  So pending SWE it could end up a bit too dry if anything. 

 

But as far as temperatures go and the coastal front, that was handled well.

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