OBS-NOWCAST for a multi impact main event 4PM today - 8A Monday Jan 16-17, 2022 with post storm minor snow accumulations possible Noon-Midnight Monday evening.

[wdrag]

Just spot checked some reports. 0.2 center of Atlanta, 5-7" general around Asheville--sloppy there.  inch or less Raleigh. Washington DC area 0.1 now with 0.8" in La Plata, south southeast of DC ..home of a famous tornado years ago. 

Speaking of convection: The HRRR is offering thunder snow in northern PA/NYS overnight and thunder somewhere in our I95 corridor midnight-5am. 

 A decent amount of power outages in clusters from northeast GA through the interior Carolinas. 

[lee59]

It looks like the snow in the D.C. area is not a hard thumping but more of a moderate snow. The temperatures are steady and some even dropped a bit when the snow started. Most temps. in the very low 20s to about 24 in D.C.

[snowman19]

If the new NAM is correct, there may be very little snow with this for the metro area. It only has an inch or so total even for up in Orange County, less than that south of there and that’s using the Kuchera. It absolutely torches the midlevels very quickly after precip begins, I would not be surprised to see Rockland/Bergen on south and east start as sleet then go to rain quickly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[SnoSki14]

Just now, snowman19 said:

If the new NAM is correct, there may be very little snow with this for the metro area. It only has an inch or so total even for up in Orange County and that’s using the Kuchera. It absolutely torches the midlevels very quickly after precip begins, I would not be surprised to see Rockland/Bergen on south and east start as sleet then go to rain quickly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Who cares it's all gonna melt regardless

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new NAM is correct, there may be very little snow with this for the metro area. It only has an inch or so total even for up in Orange County, less than that south of there and that’s using the Kuchera. It absolutely torches the midlevels very quickly after precip begins, I would not be surprised to see Rockland/Bergen on south and east start as sleet then go to rain quickly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

I agree about mid levels maybe but low level cold is definitely stronger already than what the models have been showing. 

[thunderbolt]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new NAM is correct, there may be very little snow with this for the metro area. It only has an inch or so total even for up in Orange County, less than that south of there and that’s using the Kuchera. It absolutely torches the midlevels very quickly after precip begins, I would not be surprised to see Rockland/Bergen on south and east start as sleet then go to rain quickly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

I think everybody’s quite aware of what’s going to be taking place I don’t think anybody in the New York metro area was counting on 3 or 4 inches 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

I think everybody’s quite aware of what’s going to be taking place I don’t think anybody in the New York metro area was counting on 3 or 4 inches 

Agree I am looking at optimistic trends to hope for an inch lol. I know even that is a longshot. 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Just spot checked some reports. 0.2 center of Atlanta, 5-7" general around Asheville--sloppy there.  inch or less Raleigh. Washington DC area 0.1 now with 0.8" in La Plata, south southeast of DC ..home of a famous tornado years ago. 

Speaking of convection: The HRRR is offering thunder snow in northern PA/NYS overnight and thunder somewhere in our I95 corridor midnight-5am. 

 A decent amount of power outages in clusters from northeast GA through the interior Carolinas. 

Isn't that the first measurable snow in Atlanta since 2018?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Isn't that the first measurable snow in Atlanta since 2018?

Yes at the airport which is their official NWS station it’s the first measurable snow in four years. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new NAM is correct, there may be very little snow with this for the metro area. It only has an inch or so total even for up in Orange County, less than that south of there and that’s using the Kuchera. It absolutely torches the midlevels very quickly after precip begins, I would not be surprised to see Rockland/Bergen on south and east start as sleet then go to rain quickly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

How come you never mention other meso's that are colder? It still appears well north and west of NYC there will be a 3-4 hour period of snow even on 3k which is most aggressive with warming. The thing that is going to keep snow accums down more than anything up here is downsloping. 

[NittanyWx]

27 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I agree about mid levels maybe but low level cold is definitely stronger already than what the models have been showing. 

The HRRR has been fine.

[ForestHillWx]

24/12, clouded up now. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

22 and cloudy now. 

[hudsonvalley21]

21/7 currently.

[lee59]

The areas just west of D.C. near Dulles airport getting snow with the temperature about 21-22 degrees. Hopefully it stays snow for them because they have a long way to go to get above freezing. Meanwhile 40 degrees already along the shore of south Jersey.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Radar is filling in and coming up North ---does anyone have a guesstimate for a start time for NYC ? Looks to me like it won't be long now

[NittanyWx]

Looking at some upper 20s and 30 degree readings into lower Manhattan.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

DCA reporting 24/20 with moderate snow. 

[lee59]

If the low goes right over the D.C. area, just to the west may stay frozen for a good part of this event, like out toward Dulles. Meanwhile I will be getting temperatures probably in the 40s or maybe even 50 on a SE gale. My wind NE so far, temperature now 27.9

[LoboLeader1]

24 here, NE wind gusting up to 20MPH

[psv88]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yes at the airport which is their official NWS station it’s the first measurable snow in four years. 

The airport is well south of the city center and usually gets much less snow and frozen then the city and NE. 
 

27 here in nw Suffolk 

[nycsnow]

Costal flood warning here now and winds up to 55 (still think we see h

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If the new NAM is correct, there may be very little snow with this for the metro area. It only has an inch or so total even for up in Orange County, less than that south of there and that’s using the Kuchera. It absolutely torches the midlevels very quickly after precip begins, I would not be surprised to see Rockland/Bergen on south and east start as sleet then go to rain quickly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Mid levels will torch but the surface temps are definitely colder then modeled right now. 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Isn't that the first measurable snow in Atlanta since 2018?

spotty amounts ATL0.2-0.6 " per LSR's. Have no idea what is official there. 

 

[the_other_guy]

Waiting for snow in LP 18F after a low of -25F

[Tatamy]

Snowing in Reading, PA and the leading edge is just SW of Allentown.  Snow is just beginning near the west side of Philadelphia.

[wdrag]

Report as of about 450PM in VA.

Also a few G 40-51KT  NC coast to Jacksonville FL since about 4P. 

I may not repost til 9P. Of interest, warm slot narrow and strong per LLJ but predawn rain/freezing rain ne PA extreme nw NJ near the Appalachian Trail it may turn back to snow showers as early as 12z. See HRRR. I'll stay with the HRRR positive snow amounts. Whatever it says, within an inch. It's a wall of warmth in the LLJ. 

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Sometimes patience pays...  We know the mesoscale models can get too amped. I started seeing the HRRR deviate from the fast warmup yesterday and ditto the soundings from the EC...and that's why i was trying to not dismiss.  I think sometimes poster pressure can mislead us from reality. I know that affected me on IDA, when clearly the SPC HREF was hung ho about 5-9".

Thanks for your posts. 

Bullseye. Walt. Hit the nail squared on from earlier last week. The tornadoes did occur in Fla. Now if the warm air would back off here LMAO. I cannot wait to see how bad the winds by tomorrow afternoon.

 

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tornadoes-tear-through-florida-neighborhoods-flip-vehicles-sunday

[BxSnowWx37]

It's current movement is now east/ne..another low has also popped off the coast of s.c and high pressure is trying to hold strong giving it a more eastern movement. I think the low itself doesn't end up in Central PA as the models have it but it's still ongoing. Lets see how it moves next few hours..

[BxSnowWx37]

If the western lows weaken it might be interesting for the burbs reguarding frozen precip.