Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think both 1/22 and 1/24 work. It’s going to be one or the other like Tip said. There’s additional threats after that timeframe around 1/25-1/27 timeframe but they are different from the 1/22-1/24 threats. 

they could both definitely not work out lol

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

they could both definitely not work out lol

Yes and I actually think that’s favored right now. Though not by a lot. 

[Ginx snewx]

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I think at some point in The near future this thread is going to have to be broken apart… there’s like 3 different potential “events” in this time period 

Yeah, this is for the ones who stood their ground
For Anthony and Jerry, who never backed down

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes and I actually think that’s favored right now. Though not by a lot. 

Are you constantly calculating probabilities like a money ball guy?

[The Graupler]

There’s a lot that could happen between now and then. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, The Graupler said:

There’s a lot that could happen between now and then. 

whoa

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

whoa

Deep

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Are you constantly calculating probabilities like a money ball guy?

Lol, I don’t know about “constantly”…but just taking a quick look at guidance would show the EPS/Euro are moderately enthused by 1/22 while most other guidance doesn’t like either storm very much.
 

GFS sort of likes 1/24 but never really committing to a big solution there and maybe the GGEM is starting to come around on 1/22. 
 

Add it all up and maybe 1/22 has a decent shot (say something between 25-50%) and 1/24 is a long shot (say 10-20%). 

[mreaves]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yeah, this is for the ones who stood their ground
For Anthony and Jerry, who never backed down

The world keeps pushing’ them around but they won’t back down

 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deep

Beer

[The Graupler]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

whoa

Clam down scraptus. It’s going to be aOk 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

whoa

 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deep

That was quite the brain buster 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, I don’t know about “constantly”…but just taking a quick look at guidance would show the EPS/Euro are moderately enthused by 1/22 while most other guidance doesn’t like either storm very much.
 

GFS sort of likes 1/24 but never really committing to a big solution there and maybe the GGEM is starting to come around on 1/22. 
 

Add it all up and maybe 1/22 has a decent shot (say something between 25-50%) and 1/24 is a long shot (say 10-20%). 

LOL just messing. We all know you have an electric brain and you see the world through a Terminator-like interface where you constantly calculate the best angles for kill shots and assess the threat level from grannies. 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

Clam down scraptus. It’s going to be aOk 

no comprende

[Damage In Tolland]

Man when Will is down and out and Poo pooing threats .. we are F’d. The eternal optimist is cooked 

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah what a disaster.  At least only a few weeks left

[dryslot]

I didn't read that from Will at all.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man when Will is down and out and Poo pooing threats .. we are F’d. The eternal optimist is cooked 

I’m not totally down and out. Just being realistic on the likelihood of these. 1/22 has a real chance but I don’t think people should be getting confident on the Euro solution yet. 1/24 looks worse right now but who knows how it might look of 1/22 evaporates…it would likely look a bit better.

The longwave pattern beyond continues to look very good so I can’t punt winter yet even if these don’t work out. 

 

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah what a disaster.  At least only a few weeks left

Yeah and then you can get to months of overcast and 50s. Good stuff. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not totally down and out. Just being realistic on the likelihood of these. 1/22 has a real chance but I don’t think people should be getting confident on the Euro solution yet. 1/24 looks worse right now but who knows how it might look of 1/22 evaporates…it would likely look a bit better.

The longwave pattern beyond continues to look very good so I can’t punt winter yet even if these don’t work out. 

 

I am high on Saturday. Very very high 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, I don’t know about “constantly”…but just taking a quick look at guidance would show the EPS/Euro are moderately enthused by 1/22 while most other guidance doesn’t like either storm very much.
 

GFS sort of likes 1/24 but never really committing to a big solution there and maybe the GGEM is starting to come around on 1/22. 
 

Add it all up and maybe 1/22 has a decent shot (say something between 25-50%) and 1/24 is a long shot (say 10-20%). 

Yea, proceed with caution...I'm just exhausted by the very low threat to snowfall ratio this season.....very measured and general blog approach forthcoming from me. I see some ways to snow a good amount, but I also see plenty of avenues to more of the same.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am high. Very very high 

Now it adds up

[78Blizzard]

45 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can you find one time I did that?  If I did I hope I would have apologized for posting….

Posted December 14, 2020 -

"Ike came in robust for 18z...edit..similar to 12z"

I remembered this from last year because I never heard the Ikon referred to as Ike before.

Apology wasn't needed, as I agree it is a lousy model.  

[SouthCoastMA]

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is that  a DITTY post?

when you call for 3 straight days of snow..that amount to 2". you know, the wintry appeal type posts. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Beer

Weed…the graupler high on the top ropes

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Posted December 14, 2020 -

"Ike came in robust for 18z...edit..similar to 12z"

I remembered this from last year because I never heard the Ikon referred to as Ike before.

Apology wasn't needed, as I agree it is a lousy model.  

Its draining......I've been blogging about this damn season for 4 months, and I have 10" of snow lol At this point, I almost want to take the safe road and just be void of threats bc I will probably be screwed, anyway.

[mahk_webstah]

I am optimistic not about any particular system, but about the pattern.  There is a generally good sentiment, expressed here by GYX in their last 2 AFDs:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: Troughing will persist over New England through at least
early next week which will favor below average temperatures and an
active weather pattern favoring snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I am optimistic not about any particular system, but about the pattern.  There is a generally good sentiment, expressed here by GYX in their last 2 AFDs:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: Troughing will persist over New England through at least
early next week which will favor below average temperatures and an
active weather pattern favoring snow.

Yea, pattern....def. But until we get a discrete threat that warrants any confidence, its best to remain measured. I don't feel we are there yet with that euro deal.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its draining......I've been blogging about this damn season for 4 months, and I have 10" of snow lol At this point, I almost want to take the safe road and just be void of threats bc I will probably be screwed, anyway.

Your mindfulness is taking you out of…your mindfulness. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its draining......I've been blogging about this damn season for 4 months, and I have 10" of snow lol At this point, I almost want to take the safe road and just be void of threats bc I will probably be screwed, anyway.

Maybe step away from the blogs ?