Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am new to New England, but you seem to live in a terrible screw zone just based on me observing models. LOL did you check out climo records before moving there? Just a bad stretch of years?

It's a bad stretch....I mean, not a lot of JPs here like ORH country and the south shore, but I average over 60" for a reason. I last cleaned up in 2017-2018.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I thought we were talking about this year, not times past.

You just got a foot last week...

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, 512high said:

Tip, for YOU to say pretty confident in the 23/24th , all ears!, any thoughts if this would remain all snow for us, or will this taint? I'm with Ray, this one doesn't deliver, I too will be shaking my head in disgust .

I'm confident, too...just like I was with this last one, and this season as a whole dating back last fall, but 'alas....

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think 70", Scott...was near 65" a few years ago, but probably down to low 60s now.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think 70", Scott...was near 65" a few years ago, but probably down to low 60s now.

Oh ok. I thought near 70 but 65 sounds right. Was trying to remember Reading avg and go from there. 

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You just got a foot last week...

That's all we've had for the season, which is now half over.  It was gone in a matter of days after that warmup.  So only a couple of inches more than you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

That's all we've had for the season, which is now half over.  It was gone in a matter of days after that warmup.  So only a couple of inches more than you.

Well ahead of me in percent of normal, which is all that matters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh ok. I thought near 70 but 65 sounds right. Was trying to remember Reading avg and go from there. 

I think I average about the same as Wilmington, just a bit better retention.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm confident, too...just like I was with this last one, and this season as a whole dating back last fall, but 'alas....

well ... "confident in an event"  ...  It may be helpful for these long lead threads to put in bold italics that the goal is to nail down storm at all, when the purpose is for early awareness.  

Anyway, 512 asked about snow this or rain that, unfortunately ... that's a process of discovery that comes later on. 

I should also back-peddle on term usage in all honesty. I had "reasonably confident" in mind.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well ... "confident in an event"  ...  It may be helpful for these long lead threads to put in bold italics that the goal is to nail down storm at all, when the purpose is for early awareness.  

Anyway, 512 asked about snow this or rain that, unfortunately ... that's a process of discovery that comes later on. 

I should also back-peddle on term usage in all honesty. I had "reasonably confident" in mind.

 

No, I totally get what you mean. As frustrated as I am, I never for a second allowed that to cloud my perception of the job you and Steve did at identifying the threat at advanced lead times...confident in a storm doesn't mean confident in snow in a given BY.

[512high]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well ... "confident in an event"  ...  It may be helpful for these long lead threads to put in bold italics that the goal is to nail down storm at all, when the purpose is for early awareness.  

Anyway, 512 asked about snow this or rain that, unfortunately ... that's a process of discovery that comes later on. 

I should also back-peddle on term usage in all honesty. I had "reasonably confident" in mind.

 

Tip, like I said in some other thread earlier, pretty sure this one when GINX started it, why not? Maybe a "ways" off but the rate this winter is going as you say "for snow enthusiasts " what the hell,  like I said the chase is great , a roller coaster daily on model runs, just want the out come to be great for all.

[Henry's Weather]

I almost asked about the 18z euro run. I need to get a grip

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

I almost asked about the 18z euro run. I need to get a grip

You can get it up to 72 hrs now on TT.

[Henry's Weather]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

You can get it up to 72 hrs now on TT.

thats like telling a recovering heroin addict to vacation on Cape Cod

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

thats like telling a recovering heroin addict to vacation on Cape Cod

It will be helpful when we get within 3 days of storm systems, you know, when it usually counts.

[Henry's Weather]

11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

It will be helpful when we get within 3 days of storm systems, you know, when it usually counts.

Yeah, those 24 hr intervals are really practical for short term predictions

[PhineasC]

GFS totally lost the storm too. Might want to just delete this thread and try again later.

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GFS totally lost the storm too. Might want to just delete this thread and try again later.

Actually that might be a good thing…the losing of the storm is almost always what usually happens at some point.  That didn’t happen to this current one…and look what’s gonna happen for most of SNE.  
 

Let’s see if it pops back up by Tuesday? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually that might be a good thing…the losing of the storm is almost always what usually happens at some point.  That didn’t happen to this current one…and look what’s gonna happen for most of SNE.  
 

Let’s see if it pops back up by Tuesday? 

The OPs are going to waiver at this range..I don't see the big deal. 

[weathafella]

GEFS has the threat in 1/24.   All you can ask for at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually that might be a good thing…the losing of the storm is almost always what usually happens at some point.  That didn’t happen to this current one…and look what’s gonna happen for most of SNE.  
 

Let’s see if it pops back up by Tuesday? 

GEFS say not to worry your pretty little tushy off.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GEFS has the threat in 1/24.   All you can ask for at this point.

Hooks into GOM....Jeff approved.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEPS is similar, but more of a later bloomer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

OP Euro brought it back...its a brush that kills NS....of course.

[weathafella]

Euro and it’s ensembles have it 22nd while other guidance 24th.  Lots of time left but the signal remains.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro and it’s ensembles have it 22nd while other guidance 24th.  Lots of time left but the signal remains.   

It trended better from 12z, but the EURO suite tends to develop it a bit late, so its only a moderate deal here.

[mahk_webstah]

Reading Chris at GYX and WPC maps it looks like something pops in the next week just not sure which day but prob something sat-sun

[MJO812]

6z eps indies are getting on board 

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS trying for 1/22-23 but a little wide right on the mean. You can see plenty of westward members though. 
 

 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS trying for 1/22-23 but a little wide right on the mean. You can see plenty of westward members though. 
 

 

and in the means we can also see it goes north into the GOM which is good for most of us.  A track near or inside the BM that goes into the GOM is a great storm for most all of us.