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Arctic cold and new threat emerges for the 26th. Patience Grasshoppers.

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

Full disclosure...I am probably going to come completely unhinged if this next one doesn't work out for my area. I've been trying to remain rational, and keep turning the page, but that one may do it.

OceanStWx
OceanStWx
ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

At least when Tip started threads, the events actually happen. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I dunno, I think the focus should be later 23 into the 24th...

Half the GEF members carry a significant system along/astride the EC in that time range, an ~ 1/3 improvement in count comparing the 00z. 

Imho, the 12z Euro demos +PNAP over-expression from D5 into 7, a typical bias it does in that time range, such that it may be self-manufacturing unrealistically deep N. Ontario SPV toward later days.  Wouldn't shock me if that ends up a bit shallower, while the southern extend of the total trough flow demos a bit more relaxed separation/identity in the OV. 

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Totally believe in that, just selling subzero cold extending that far south. I hope I’m wrong. 

I mean it was 2 degrease here this morning, that’s showing a lil colder here than this current arctic blast…doesn’t seem that unreasonable. But it’s in clown range…so we know to take with grain of salt.,

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Going back to December.....just a bit too far south, in January just a bit too far north for the I 95 band....then arctic- whiff being just too far west, followed by another arctic shot then a rainer being just too far east....then more arctic followed by another being just too far fill-in-the-blank direction....that would indeed finish me.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Full disclosure...I am probably going to come completely unhinged if this next one doesn't work out for my area. I've been trying to remain rational, and keep turning the page, but that one may do it.

I am new to New England, but you seem to live in a terrible screw zone just based on me observing models. LOL did you check out climo records before moving there? Just a bad stretch of years?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Full disclosure...I am probably going to come completely unhinged if this next one doesn't work out for my area. I've been trying to remain rational, and keep turning the page, but that one may do it.

Hang in there ...

Feel pretty confident in the 23/24th ... maybe 25, but this thread covers the front side and is entirely relevant.  Not sure anyone saw my statement earlier, but having 1/3 (count) of the the total GEF members go from blase to couriering an import coastal from 00z through 12z, on top of a modest numeric +PNA persistence, is usually an omen for activity.  I wanted to thread this too, but I was willing to wait on 'signal commitment' to either the 22 OR the 24th, not both.  I suspect with the Euro dumping the previous, and it also in turn flexes it SPV to ( unrealistic) depths, is probably like the 'zygote' to modeling solution that relaxes said SPV and instead opens up the OV to less compression - not 100% but that's a likable correction for that source alone. 

May also be looking at a -AO tail end to winter

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512high

512high

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hang in there ...

Feel pretty confident in the 23/24th ... maybe 25, but this thread covers the front side and is entirely relevant.  Not sure anyone saw my statement earlier, but having 1/3 (count) of the the total GEF members go from blase to couriering an import coastal from 00z through 12z, on top of a modest numeric +PNA persistence, is usually an omen for activity.  I wanted to thread this too, but I was willing to wait on 'signal commitment' to either the 22 OR the 24th, not both.  I suspect with the Euro dumping the previous, and it also in turn flexes it SPV to ( unrealistic) depths, is probably like the 'zygote' to modeling solution that relaxes said SPV and instead opens up the OV to less compression - not 100% but that's a likable correction for that source alone. 

May also be looking at a -AO tail end to winter

Tip, for YOU to say pretty confident in the 23/24th , all ears!, any thoughts if this would remain all snow for us, or will this taint? I'm with Ray, this one doesn't deliver, I too will be shaking my head in disgust .

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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23 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am new to New England, but you seem to live in a terrible screw zone just based on me observing models. LOL did you check out climo records before moving there? Just a bad stretch of years?

His area probably averages near 70”. He’s been in a rut so to speak, especially with storms blowing loads all around him and not In him. :yikes:

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